SLIDE 1 ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES October 2011 PRESENTED BY MAGNUS HINDSBERGER

SLIDE 2 ESOO CONTENTS Executive Briefing Key findings National overview of generation and demand Supply-demand balances & LRC by region ESOO Key Changes since 2010: New chapter “Investment Opportunities” to accentuate focus on investment. New attachment “Historical Information” provides historical context “Fuel Supply” chapter now includes information on renewables ESOO includes commentary on the Government’s recently announced Clean Energy Future Plan. Supply Demand calculator – downloadable tool

SLIDE 3 DEMAND PROJECTIONS

SLIDE PROJECTIONS (MEDIUM SCENARIO): DEMAND GROWTH RATES TO 2020/21

SLIDE 5 CHANGE TO PROJECTION STARTING POINTS SINCE THE 2010 ESOO

SLIDE 6 DEMAND GROWTH RATE CHANGES SINCE THE 2010 ESOO

SLIDE 7 GENERATION: CURRENT & COMMITTED

SLIDE 8 EXISTING, COMMITTED AND ADVANCED GENERATION

SLIDE 9 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

SLIDE 10 SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK

SLIDE 11 THREE GROWTH FACTORS AFFECTING GENERATION INVESTMENTS Percentage of year Demand in MW Maximum demand growth Energy demand growth Growth in LRET

SLIDE 12 NEM-WIDE NEW GENERATION

SLIDE 13 SUMMARY OF INVESTMENT NEEDS Identified reliability investment needs from 2013/14 o Based on existing and committed generation o Could be met by publically announced (uncommitted) projects Little need for baseload capacity in the near future o Subject to no retirements Investment required to meet renewable energy target Investor interest is consistent with these drivers: o 11,500 MW of publically announced gas projects o 16,000 MW of publically announced wind projects

SLIDE 14 QUESTIONS & YOUR FEEDBACK

SLIDE 15 ESOO CONTENTS Executive Briefing Key findings National overview of generation and demand Supply-demand balances & LRC by region ESOO Key Changes since 2010: New chapter “Investment Opportunities” to accentuate focus on investment. New attachment “Historical Information” provides historical context “Fuel Supply” chapter now includes information on renewables ESOO includes commentary on the Government’s recently announced Clean Energy Future Plan. Supply Demand calculator – downloadable tool

SLIDE 16 SPARE SLIDES

SLIDE 17 DETAILED SUPPLY DEMAND OUTLOOK Region Low Economic GrowthMedium Economic GrowthHigh Economic Growth LRC Point Reserve Deficit (MW) LRC Point Reserve Deficit (MW) LRC Point Reserve Deficit (MW) Queensland2014– – –14779 New South Wales2018– – –19367 Victoria2016– – –1496 South Australia2016– – –145 Tasmania (summer)>2020–21N/A>2020–21N/A>2020–21N/A Tasmania (winter)>2021N/A>2021N/A>2021N/A

SLIDE 18 CHANGES SINCE THE 2010 ESOO Queensland requires additional investment in , consistent with the 2010 ESOO. New South Wales requires additional investment in , two years later than the 2010 ESOO. o Due to a decrease in the maximum demand projections for the region. Victoria and South Australia require additional investment by , one year earlier than projected in the 2010 ESOO. o Due to moderate increases in the maximum demand projections for both regions. Tasmania does not experience a reserve deficit within the 10- year outlook period.

SLIDE 19 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN LRC, ANNUAL MD GROWTH AND RESERVE DEFICIT Capacity (MW) LRC point Reserve deficit Annual MD growth

SLIDE 20 QUEENSLAND – REGIONAL OUTLOOK

SLIDE 21 QUEENSLAND SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE

SLIDE 22 QUEENSLAND – NEW GENERATION

SLIDE 23 QUEENSLAND – ENERGY PROJECTIONS

SLIDE 24 QUEENSLAND – POWERLINK AND AEMO ENERGY PROJECTIONS

SLIDE 25 NEW SOUTH WALES – REGIONAL OUTLOOK

SLIDE 26 NSW SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE

SLIDE 27 NSW – NEW GENERATION

SLIDE 28 NSW – ENERGY PROJECTIONS

SLIDE 29 VICTORIA – REGIONAL OUTLOOK

SLIDE 30 VICTORIA SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE

SLIDE 31 VICTORIA – NEW GENERATION

SLIDE 32 VICTORIA – ENERGY PROJECTIONS

SLIDE 33 SOUTH AUSTRALIA – REGIONAL OUTLOOK

SLIDE 34 SOUTH AUSTRALIA SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE

SLIDE 35 SOUTH AUSTRALIA – NEW GENERATION

SLIDE 36 SOUTH AUSTRALIA – ENERGY PROJECTIONS

SLIDE 37 TASMANIA – REGIONAL OUTLOOK

SLIDE 38 TASMANIA SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE SUMMER

SLIDE 39 TASMANIA SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE WINTER

SLIDE 40 TASMANIA – ENERGY ASSESSMENT

SLIDE 41 TASMANIA – NEW GENERATION

SLIDE 42 TASMANIA – ENERGY PROJECTIONS