Innovation and Economic Development in Rural China Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, and School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
The Global Food Crisis: Creating an Opportunity for Fairer and More Sustainable Food and Agriculture Systems Worldwide Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte and.
Advertisements

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rice public expenditure policies in Asia David.
Post-harvest Losses, Technology, and Value Addition Rosa Rolle Senior Agro-Industries and Post- harvest Officer.
1 STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC CHANGES IN CHINA AND VIETNAM: POLICY ISSUES AND CONSEQUENCES FOR AGRICULTURE Clem Tisdell Professor Emeritus School of Economics.
Agricultural R&D & Poverty Huqu Zhai (President) Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences ( CAAS)
5/11/20151 Summary of Key Findings J. Nyoro Director Tegemeo Institute.
Should Governments Subsidise Food Prices? To see more of our products visit our website at Neil Folland.
India’s Development Challenges Higher School of Economics April 1, 2008.
Improvement competitiveness of Vietnam’s Agriculture
Agricultural and Policy Development in China Agricultural and Policy Development in China Dr. Ke Bingsheng Director-General Research Center for Rural Economy,
Overview of China’s Agricultural Development and Policies
Chapter 10: Agricultural and Rural Development. Contribution of Agriculture Produce – food to meet basic nutritional needs – raw materials to help the.
Biofuels, Food Security and Environmental Sustainability: Global Challenges and Opportunities Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte Presented to the Technical Society.
CHINA: Class 2. Policy Change in the Reform Period q Initiated in December 1978 after a power struggle q emphasis on the 4 modernizations q of industry,
Population Growth and Economic Development
Structural Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa African Department International Monetary Fund November 2012.
Determinants of Rural Poverty Reduction and Pro-poor Economic Growth in China Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Policy Context Module 2: Analysis of Policy Context.
1 JBIC ’ s Approach to Poverty Issue May 2003 Kunio Hatanaka Director General Environment Analysis Department Japan Bank for International Cooperation.
Off the Shelf: Innovation in family farming for sustainable agriculture Terri Raney, Editor The State of Food and Agriculture Food and Agriculture Organization.
The 8-7 National Poverty Reduction Program in China: the National Strategy and its Impact Wang Sangui, Li Zhou, Ren Yanshun.
The Global Food Security Challenge ( GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th.
Land and Water Development Division FAO, Rome UNLOCKING THE WATER POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURE.
The challenge of sustainable
How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 “How to feed the World in 2050” The outlook for food and agriculture in a dynamically changing.
Agricultural Policy Analysis Prof. Samuel Wangwe Executive Director REPOA 28 th July 2012.
1 Changing Sources of Household Income and Poverty Reduction in Rural Asia, Keijiro Otsuka Jonna P. Estudillo FASID (Foundation for Advanced.
Pathways out of poverty in the new agriculture John Staatz & Niama Nango Dembélé Michigan State University Cornell International Workshops on Agricultural.
Time for Action: Shaping Biofuel Production and Trade for the Common Good Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte Scientific Symposium: Food and Fuel: Biofuels, Development,
Aid for Trade Needs Assessment – Georgia United Nations Development Programme.
Agricultural Development for Reducing Poverty in India Policy Forum Dr. P.K. Mishra Secretary to Government of India Department of Agriculture & Cooperation.
Institutional Learning and Change Initiative of the CGIAR 1 The new dynamics of poverty and the role of science in poverty alleviation Javier M. Ekboir.
Directorate for Food, Agriculture, and Fisheries 1 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT.
1 School of Oriental & African Studies MDG1 & food security: critical challenges Andrew Dorward School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.
Including the Productive Poor in Agricultural Development Escaping Poverty Traps: Connecting the Chronically Poor to Economic Growth Cheryl Morden Director,
Lessons and implications for agriculture and food Security in the region IFPRI-ADB POLICY FORUM 9-10 August 2007 Manila, Philippines Rapid Growth of Selected.
Agricultural Trade and Poverty Reduction in Nepal Dr. Shiva Sharma National Labour Academy Presented in Media Workshop, "Role.
The Challenges World population is projected to grow from 6.5 billion in 2005 to nearly 9.2 billion by Thus global food production must nearly double.
Easing the transition to More Open Economy: China's Agricultural and Rural Policy Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of.
Development and Restructuring of Chinese Agriculture Dr. Funing Zhong College of Economics & Management Nanjing Agricultural University Nanjing, China.
1 Green Growth through Regional Cooperation Hongpeng Liu Chief Energy Security & Water Resources Section Environment and Development Division UN Economic.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty Ghana Strategy Support Program Concluding Remarks and.
Biofuels, Food Security and Environmental Sustainability: Global Challenges and Opportunities Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte The Politics of Food Conference.
A Strategy for Doubling Average Household Incomes in the Least Developed Countries Charles Gore UNCTAD UN International Forum on Poverty Eradication New.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty Ghana Strategy Support Program Aiming for Middle Income.
Mahbubul Islam Khan.  Economy has been growing at a rate of around 6% per annum  Economy underwent remarkable structural transformation  Agriculture’s.
The Role of Biofuels in the Transformation of Agriculture Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte and Chad M. Hellwinckel The Economics of Alternative Energy Sources.
Revitalizing Agriculture in Andhra Pradesh: Role of High-Value Commodities P. Parthasarathy Rao ICRISAT IFPRI-ICRISAT Collaborative Project July, 2005.
Regional Learning Session on Sustainable and Inclusive Marketing Arrangements Towards Increasing Farmers’ Market Power 9-11 May 2013 Manila Vedini Harishchandra.
Influence of Agricultural Policy on Chinese Food Economy TINGSI WANG.
Can Biofuels be Sustainable in an Unsustainable Agriculture? Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte Chad M. Hellwinckel Chad M. Hellwinckel American Chemical Society.
The Challenges of Youth Employment in ACP Countries: A Global Perspective Brussels Briefings 16 th June 2010 Bruno Losch Youth and Rural Development in.
Poverty Alleviation performance in China Experiences and lessons XU Lin National Development and Reform commission PRC.
China’s Agriculture and Food Economy in the 21 st Century Opening Remarks Scott Rozelle, UC Davis.
A Comparison from Matching Surveys in Africa and China: Plan in China Jinxia Wang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences.
MOZAMBIQUE Promoting Rural Development for Inclusive Growth -- Could China’s Experiences Be Relevant? Guo Li The World Bank, Pretoria Office Growth Seminar,
Agricultural Transformation and Youth Employment in Africa: A Nigerian Case Study By Kwabena Gyimah-Brempong Chinonso Etumnu Fourth Annual Conference on.
Understanding China’s Growth: Past, Present and Future Xiaodong Zhu Department of Economics East Asia Seminar at Asian Institute, University of Toronto.
Research Needs and Outcomes in Agro-enterprise Development Peter J. Batt.
Feeding 1.3 billion: Role of Incentives and Technology in Chinese Agriculture Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Inclusive structural and Rural Transformation Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize ICABR Ravello June 26, 2016.
BANGLADESH: More and Better Jobs to Accelerate
ZHANG Juwei Institute of Population and Labor Economics
Food Systems and Food Policy: A Global Perspective
IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE
Youth and Rural Development in ACP countries
Growth, Transformation and Poverty in the PRC and ASEAN
Strategic Policies for a More Competitive Agriculture Sector
Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy
STRENGTHENING/IMPROVING THE CAPACITY OF
Presentation transcript:

Innovation and Economic Development in Rural China Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, and School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University

China: some facts Population: billion ≈ 20% world population Water availability: ≈ 5% of world total Arable land: ≈ 8% of world total Food self-sufficient: ≈ 96% in 2014 Agricultural GDP grew at 4.6% annually in past 35 years

Rural population under poverty (million) 更新数据 国家贫困线 100 元 / 人年 Poverty line 2: 1196 Y/yr Poverty line 3: 2300 Y/yr Poverty line 1

Rural household per capita income (2014 constant price) Sources of farmers’ income (%)

Questions How China has been able to largely meet its growing demand for foods? How China has been able to significantly increase farmers’ income and massive reduce rural poverty? What are the challenges and policy forward?

Agricultural growth: 4 Major driving forces - Innovated institutional reform - Innovating technology - Market reform - Investment in agriculture Raising farmer income and reducing rural poverty - Agricultural growth - Inclusive rural transformation Challenges and policy responses Concluding remarks The rest of presentation

Total Factor Productivity for rice, wheat and maize in China, (note: similar trends for other products) Rice Wheat Maize Institutional change (decollectivization, allocated land equally to all households in each village) was a major source of growth in Huang and Rozelle, JDE, 1996; Jin, Huang and Rozelle, AJAE, 2002

Total Factor Productivity for rice, wheat and maize in China, Rice Wheat Maize TFP growth at about 2% After middle 1980s, technology has been major factor affecting productivity growth

Total Factor Productivity for rice, wheat and maize in China, Rice Wheat Maize TFP growth at about 2% After middle 1980s, technology has been major factor affecting productivity growth

Source: Jin, Huang and Rozelle Total Factor Productivity Rises Mostly Technical Change (rising of production frontier) … China is already operating efficiently (at frontier) Total Factor Productivity for major crops,

Wholesale market: Consolidation and specialization have also been occurring A key link between the farm and markets

Integration in China’s Markets (% of market pairs that have integrated price series; Note: similar results for rice, wheat and other products) Corn Soybean When using statistical tests (on more than 800 pairs of markets), almost all markets move together in an integrated way, up from only about ½ in the early 1990s (when markets were NOT integrated)

Facilitated agricultural structural change Shift to high-value commodities Better return to household land and labor Helped farmers: cheaper input’s prices higher output prices Market reform

Expansion of irrigated land in China Million ha About 50% of cultivated land Investment into agricultural sector Government budget support (billion yuan in 2008 prices)

Agricultural growth: 4 Major driving forces - Innovated institutional reform - Innovating technology - Market reform - Investment in agriculture Raising farmer income and reducing rural poverty - Agricultural growth - Inclusive rural transformation Challenges and policy responses Concluding remarks The rest of presentation

Average annual agricultural growth rate (%) Population under extreme poverty in rural China (million)

StageMajor indicators 1Primary on staple food production 2Agri. diversification (labor intensive + high value products) 3Rising non-farm employment: 3.1 Farming + part time non-farm employment 3.2 Increasing specialization on farming or non-farm 3.3 Agri. mechanization and more off-farm employment 4Rural urbanization and integrated urban-rural development Pathway and speed of rural transformation

Share of gross value of non-cereal products (%) in Rapid transformation: China, Indonesia and Laos; Vietnam recently Moderate transformation: the rest of Asian developing countries Exceptions: Cambodia and the Philippines Source: Huang and Dong (2016)

Rural transformation: within agriculture (annual change in share of gross value of non-cereal products) and annual rural poverty reduction in 9 countries for the period indicated Source: Huang (2016)

Transformation within agriculture and rural poverty reduction Rural poverty reduction SlowModerateFast Slow AT Pakistan Philippines Cambodia Moderate AT Laos India Bangladesh Fast AT Indonesia China Vietnam

Successful rural transformation has stimulated economic growth and structural transformation Successful rural transformation has stimulated economic growth and structural transformation Economic growth and structural transformation further has enhanced rural transformation and rural poverty reduction Economic growth and structural transformation further has enhanced rural transformation and rural poverty reduction - Labor-intensive industrialization, create more jobs for rural labor, including the poor

Overall Increase in Off-farm Work In 2012 more than 90% of households have at least 1 family member (or son / daughter) working off the farm In 1980: only 4% worked full time off the farm 72% 2012

Pathway and speed of agricultural transformation StagePaths of TransformationMajor IPIs 1Primary on staple food production Institutions (e.g., land) + water infrastructure + technology 2Agri. DiversificationPlus Mkt reform + mkt/road infrastructure 3.1Farming + part time non- farm employment Plus Local SMEs policy in rural 3.2Increasing specialization on farm or non-farm job Plus urbanization; labor & land rental mkt 3.3Agri. mechanization and more off-farm job Plus mechanization, land consolidation etc. 4Rural urbanization and integrated urban-rural development Plus eliminating discrimination between rural and urban in all aspects 1)Institution, Policy and Investment (IPIs) matter 2)Sequence of IPIs matters

Rural population under poverty in China

Rural income per capita in 2011 Difference in regional rural transformation Ratio pf urban and rural income

However, Now China has reached a stage of agricultural and rural development: -- previous challenges intensified -- new challenges emerged

Previous challenges intensified Increased food production has been at the expensive of sustainable development - groundwater over-exploitation; - falling soil fertility; - rising non-point pollution; - rising concern on food safety; - …

Previous challenges intensified and policy responses: agriculture Decision in the late 2000s: bring food safety to policy agenda Decision in 2011: Double investment in water conservancy (630 billion US$) in Decision in 2014: Plan to reduce fertilizer & pesticide uses Decision in 2015/2016: emphasize on production capacity, land/water conservation, and technology… 藏粮于地;藏粮于技

New challenges: Rising opportunity cost of farming labor Manufacturing wages (USD/year) China Thailand India Indonesia China Li et al (2012)

Composition of farm gate price (yuan/kg) Rice Wheat CCAP survey: : 8% of annual growth rate of real labor cost : 10% of annual growth rate of real land rent cost

New concerns and policy responses Rising production cost, less competitive, and food insecurity Large urban-rural income gap Remaining rural poverty Agri. Subsidy (decoupled) Income support - Price intervention  income transfer Land consolidation - Rental market - Support farmers to expand farm size Eliminate poverty by 2020

Concluding remarks: Past successes and experiences Agricultural growth and poverty reduction: - Innovated institutional reform - Innovating technology - Market reform - Investment in agriculture Farmers’ income growth and poverty reduction: - Agricultural growth - Inclusive rural transformation (RT): (IPI matters and its sequence also matter)

Concluding remarks: Challenges and enabling factors Sustainable agriculture Agri. competitive and food security Large urban-rural income gap Remaining rural poverty 4 major experiences learned in the past (IIMI) Emphasize on productivity, production capacity and “two markets” Fostering more inclusive RT Targeted poverty alleviation Lessons from EU: reducing non-pollution, sustainable agriculture and better rural environment

Thanks!