The Workshop on Spatial Economics Shuming Bao China Data Center University of Michigan New Information - New Technology - New Directions

Why Spatial?  Location  Integration  Time

A Brief Intro to Spatial Economics Spatial economics is concerned with the allocation of (scarce) resources over space and the location of economic activity: what, where, and why Spatial economics covers:  Location theory  Spatial competition  Regional and urban economics Some core questions:  Why are there cities?  Why do some regions prosper while others do not?  Why do we observe residential segregation?  Why do firms from the same industry cluster?  What are the drivers of investment?  How important are firing costs to explain unemployment?  What are the returns to education? Gilles Duranton, Spatial Econometrics, In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2008, Edited by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume, Palgrave Macmillan.

Related Topics  central place theory  Economic geography  GIS data in economics  housing supply  international trade  location theory  systems of cities  spatial econometrics  urban economics  urban agglomeration  urban economics  urban housing demand  urban production externalities  urban transportation economics

Challenges for Spatial Economics Challenges in theory:  Unified general equilibrium approach to spatial economics  Microfoundations of trade costs  Theory of proximity Challenges in empirical work:  Develop new tools for spatial analysis  Understand the mechanisms behind facts  Distinguish between theories (factor endowments, urban systems and new geography) to explain regional patterns of economic activity

A New Vision of Spatial Economics Research Objective: Complex system Research Approach: Spatial analysis Research focus: Spatial economy A Spatial Study of Social Ecosystems Based on Economy Space + Economy + Society

The Fundamental Theory of Spatial Economics: Spatial Ecology Basic Assumptions ： -Degenerative system -Increasing ecological risks:  Environmental risk  Health risk  Social risk Core Indicators ： -Biodiversity -Culture diversity

Spatial Economics: A Core Component of Spatial Social Sciences  What are the spatial patterns of data?  What are the spatial trends over the time?  What are spatial interactions between different aspects of the society over the time and space?  What are the potential impacts of proposed actions on our complex systems?

Spatial Theories  Spatial Ecology Eugene Pleasants Odum, 1971, Fundamentals of Ecology. David Tilman, Peter Kareiva ， 1997, Spatial Ecology, Princeton University Press.  Spatial Diffusion  J. C. Hudson, 2010, Diffusion in a Central Place System, Geographical Analysis. 09/2010; (1): ; J. C. HudsonGeographical Analysis  Spatial Attraction  Samuel Frenning, Attraction Theory,  Spatial Interaction  Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Spatial Interactions and the Gravity Model,  Spatial Convergence  Farhad Rassekh, 1998, The Convergence Hypothesis: History, Theory, and Evidence, Open economies review 9: 85–105  Spatial Contamination  David Greetham, 2010, The Pleasures of Contamination: Evidence, Text, and Voice in Textual Studies, Indiana University Press

The Framework of Ecological System Five core components ： 1.forcing function 2.state variable 3.flow pathways 4.interaction functions 5.feedback loops Three primary factors ： 1.Spatial boundary 2.Time 3.Sub-systems

A Dynamic Model of Spatial Segregation Initial Status Long term status Short term status

The Production Chains  Within industrial sectors  Between industrial sectors  Industries and regional systems

Health Diagnostic and Risk Assessment  Health diagnostics  Evaluation of system stability  Assessment of system risks

Demands for Comprehensive Database Data sources ： government statistics, census, survey, historical records, trade, management records, social media Population Industries and business Economic statistics Transportation Geography Environment Culture Tourism 。。。。

Methodology  Exploratory Data Analysis (descriptive reports, charts, histogram, scatterplot, ….)  Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (spatial visualization, Moran I, LISA,.…)  Statistical Analysis (statistical modeling, estimates, predictions, ….)  Space-Time Analysis (space-time modeling, animation,…)

Methodology Statistical Analysis Data Collection Spatialization Spatial Classification Attribute Classification Report Analysis Graphic Analysis Space-time Analysis Spatial Analysis Mapping Analysis Spectrum Analysis Report Analysis Statistical Analysis Spatial Analysis Space-time Analysis Graphic Analysis Mapping Analysis Spectrum Analysis

Exploratory Data Analysis  Descriptive reports  Box plot  Histogram  Multi-vari chart  Run chart  Pareto chart  Scatter plot  Stem-and-leaf plot  Parallel coordinates  Odds ratio  Multidimensional scaling  Targeted projection pursuit  Principal component analysis  Multilinear PCA

Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis  Tests for spatial patterns of the data  Tests for spatial autocorrelation  Identifying outliers over the space  Identifying spatial trends o Moran I test for spatial autocorrelation : o LISA tests for spatial associations: Local Moran: Local Geary: o Variogram test for spatial stationarity and nonstationarity (variogram, covariogram, correlogram, boxplots, trend model, and statistic graphics)

Statistical Analysis A simple regression model: A simple spatial autoregressive model: A General Form of Spatial Process Model: where W 1 and W 2 are spatial weight matrices,  ~ N(0,  ).

Space-Time Analysis Spatial analysis + Time series analysis > 2004

Data: China Sq Km Grid Prefecture Province County Township  Government Statistics o Provincial Statistics ( ) o City Statistics ( ) o County Statistics ( )  Population Census o Census 1953 (GRID) o Census 1964 (GRID) o Census 1982 (GRID) o Census 1990 (GRID) o Census 2000 (province, city, county, township, GRID)  Economic Census o Industrial Census 1995 (province, city, county, ZIP) o Basic Unit Census 2001 (province, city, county, ZIP) o Economic Census 2004 (province, city, county, ZIP)  Establishments (individual companies and organizations) o Industrial Census(1995) o Basic Unit Census (2001) o Economic Census (2004)  Geography and Environment o Land Use data (GRID) o Night-Time data (GRID) o Transportation (railway, highway, roads) o Rivers and Lakes o …. ZIP

Data: US BLOCK Metropolitan State County CCD Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc. (“AGS” - InfoGroup, Inc. ( Data Coverage: Population Census (State, County, Tract, Block, Metropolitan, CCD, Place) o Census 1970 o Census 1980 o Census 1990 o Census 2000 o Census 2010 o American Community Survey Establishments (individual companies and organizations) o Firm level records for 2013 (85 fields) o Aggregated data by State, County, Tract, Block, Metropolitan, CCD, Place, ZIP ( ) TRACT

Technology Technology An Integration of Information, Methodology and Knowledge for Spatial Intelligence Service DATA RSGIS Information + Methodology + knowledge Technology

China & US Geo-Explorer China & US Geo-Explorer An Integration of Spatial Data and Analysis for China Studies Statistics GIS Census Charts Maps Tables Reports Data Output

Functions  Report Analysis  Site Analysis  Location Analysis  Trend Analysis  Statistical Analysis  Space-Time Analysis  Graphic Analysis  Map Visualization GIS Statistical Analysis Spatial Analysis ESDA

Report Analysis Select by administrative units Select by map

Site Analysis

Location Analysis

Trend Analysis

Graphic Analysis

Statistical Analysis

Data Export

Map Export

Case Studies  Spatial Religion and Economic Growth  Spatial Religion and Urbanization  Spatial Religion and International Trade  Spatial Religion and Migration  Spatial Religion and Culture

Religion and Economic Growth  Literature: Polarization of religion has positive impact on economic growth  Test: What is the impact of religious diversity on regional growth?

Religion and Migration  Literature: Religion discourage out-migration  Test: Will the regions with more religious sites discourage out/in migration?

Religion and Urbanization  Literature: Urbanization may have negative impact on religious development  Test: Where are mostly dynamic changes in religious sites located: urban, rural or transition areas?

Religion and International Trade  Literature: International trade help spread religion  Test: The impact of international trade on religious distribution and growth

Religion and Culture  Literature: The spatial-temporal process can be identified with the spatial frequency of family names  Test: The spatial process of different religions with the family names of Temple abbot.

Religion and Culture  Literature: The spatial-temporal process can be identified with the spatial frequency of Temple names  Test: The spatial process of different religions with the names of Temples.

Spatial Social Sciences: Research Agenda -Spatial theory: demand and supply (macro and micro, national, regional and local levels) -Spatial analysis (ESDA) of religions -Identifying the spatial structure of religions -Identifying the spatial patterns of religious distribution -Identifying outliers, spatial trends and spatial regimes -Spatial modeling for the complex system -Identifying interactions among different religions -Identifying interactions between religion, population, economy, culture and environment, …. -Location analysis of religious sites -Local functions of religious service -Spatial range of religious service -Spatial policies of religious management -The internal governance of religions -The local governance of religions

Big Data for Spatial Social Sciences Data sources:  Search engines (google, baidu, yahoo,…)  Facebook  Twitter  Blogs  WeChat  QQ ….

Online Demonstrations: Online Demonstrations: China Geo-Explorer US Geo-Explorer Spatial Explorer of Religion Spatial Explorer of Crime