2014 Legislative Agenda Orange County Board of County Commissioners October 22, 2013

Legislative Team Mission:  Identify proposals that impact the county’s provision of services to citizens;  Inform decision makers of positive/negative consequences of proposed legislation;  Advocate fair, reasonable and balanced resolution of current and future challenges Legislative Agenda

Presentation Outline:  Legislative Overview  State Budget Assessment  Draft Priorities  Other Agenda Items  Discussion  Action Requested 2014 Legislative Agenda

Presentation Outline:  Legislative Overview State Budget Assessment Suggested Priorities Other Agenda Items Discussion Action Requested

2014 Legislative Agenda Florida Senate President Don Gaetz District 1, Okaloosa County

2013 Legislative Session Florida Senate Senator Andy Gardiner District 13 Senator Alan Hays District 11 Senator Darren Soto District 14 Senator Kelli Stargel District 15 Senator Geraldine F. Thompson District 12

2014 Legislative Agenda Florida House Speaker Will Weatherford District 38, Pasco County

2013 Legislative Session Florida House Rep. Bruce Antone, D-46 Rep. Randolph Bracy, D-45 Rep. Karen Castor Dentel, D-30 Rep. Tom Goodson, D-50 Rep. Bryan Nelson, D-31 Rep. Steve Precourt, D-44 Rep. Joe Saunders, D-49 Rep. Linda Stewart, D-47 Rep. Victor Manuel Torres, D-48

Timeline /23 – 9/27Committee Week 10/7 – 10/11Committee Week 11/4 – 11/8Committee Week 11/13 – 11/15FAC Conference 12/9 – 12/13Committee Week 2014 Legislative Agenda /6 – 1/10Committee Week 1/13 – 1/17Committee Week 2/3 – 2/7Committee Week 2/10 – 2/14Committee Week 2/17 – 2/21Committee Week 3/42014 Session Begins 3/27FAC Legislative Day 5/22014 Session Ends

2014 Legislative Agenda Presentation Outline: Legislative Overview  State Budget Assessment Draft Priorities Other Agenda Items Discussion Action Requested

Florida’s Financial Future Dr. James A. Zingale

A History of Recessions Since the Great Depression…

*Current Recovery: 4 years, 4 months

Economic Recovery Florida growth rates are gradually returning to more typical levels. However, drags are more persistent than past events. It will take a few more years to climb completely out of the recession hole. A national economic recovery is well underway. Most areas of commercial and consumer credit are strengthening, though residential credit remains sluggish and difficult to access.

Economic Recovery The subsequent turnaround in Florida housing will be led by:    Low home prices that attract buyers and clear inventory    Long-run, sustainable, demand triggered by continued population growth    Unique state demographics and the aging baby-boom generation (first wave hit retirement in 2011)

Population Growth Recovery Population growth is the state’s primary economic growth engine, fueling employment and income.    Growth is expected to continue, with rates increasing over the next few years    The future will be different than the past (Long-term growth rate between 1970 and 1995 was over three percent.)   Florida on track to break 20 million in 2016, surpassing New York and becoming third most populous state

Florida: Net Migration History

Florida’s Job Market

Florida U.S. Labor Statistics Recessionary Periods and Unemployment Rates

Florida’s Job Market The job market will take a long time to recover.    515,100 jobs have been lost since the most recent peak Rehiring will not be enough    Prime working-age population (25-54) is expected to increase 2,900 people per month Hole is deeper than it looks    Creation of roughly 900,000 jobs is necessary to equal the same percentage working at peak

Upside Risk for Construction Supply has become two-tiered – viable homes and seriously distressed homes.    “Shadow inventory” of homes in foreclosure or carry delinquent/defaulted mortgages may contain a significant number of “ghost” homes, distressed beyond realistic use    To the extent that the number of viable homes is limited, new construction may come back sooner than expected 

Florida Homeownership Rate: Back to Normal

Consumer Perception Recovers Consumer sentiment improving nationally, however:  August 2011: Drop near lowest level of Great Recession, close to lowest level ever posted  December 2012: Index dropped again as concerns about the Fiscal Cliff took hold   Now: Recovering, with a May surge at the highest level in nearly six years

Consumer Perception Recovers University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

General Revenue

General Revenue: Recurring History

County Taxable Values

Senate Bill 1500 Appropriations by program area, fund source Adjusted for Vetoes and Supplementals FY (Dollars in Millions)

Program Area By Fund Source

Putting It Together: Year One (in millions)

Summary

Financial Summary: Historical Comparison

Planned General Reserve, Post Appropriations Appropriations Unallocated General Revenue Other Reserves

The Bottom Line…  Future fiscal years show projected budget needs within available revenue for critical and other high-priority needs, including $1b set-aside reserve   No fiscal strategies are required for any year in the outlook period   For the third time since adoption of Long Range Financial Outlooks, sufficient funds exist

Florida’s Financial Future Dr. James A. Zingale

2014 Legislative Agenda Presentation Outline: Legislative Overview State Budget Assessment  Draft Priorities Other Agenda Items Discussion Action Requested

Draft Priorities:  Gaming Oppose any expansion and/or new authority for casino and internet gambling in the state  Springs/Water Initiatives Support balanced efforts to protect water quality and preserve water quantity 2014 Legislative Agenda

 Communication Services Tax Maintain local funding source, along with flexibility in use  Local Business Tax Maintain local funding option, along with flexibility in use  Central Florida Expressway Authority Support regionalism, while protecting current OOCEA system users 2014 Legislative Agenda

Support Oppose:  SUPPORT: Economic development initiatives that provide unique opportunities to build and diversify the local economy  SUPPORT: Department of Juvenile Justice equity for pre-adjudication and post- adjudication costs 2014 Legislative Agenda

Support Oppose:  OPPOSE: Legislation that reduces Tourist Development Tax funding, including DOT-COM  OPPOSE: Any erosion of Home Rule, such as local authority related to permitting and conservation efforts 2014 Legislative Agenda

Monitor:  Cost shifts tied to data collection, reporting  Red Light Camera Repeal  Pre-Trial Release  Florida Retirement System  E-911  Animal Services  Funding Opportunities 2013 Legislative Agenda

Presentation Outline: Legislative Overview State Budget Assessment Draft Priorities  Other Agenda Items Discussion Action Requested

Community Partners: When not adverse to Orange County interests, support legislative priorities of community partners such as:  Florida Association of Counties  University of Central Florida, Valencia College  MetroPlan Orlando  LYNX  Metro Orlando EDC  Orange County Health Department 2014 Legislative Agenda

Additional Issues: 2014 Legislative Agenda

Presentation Outline: Legislative Overview State Budget Assessment Draft Priorities Other Agenda Items  Discussion Action Requested

2014 Legislative Agenda Presentation Outline: Legislative Overview State Budget Assessment Draft Priorities Other Agenda Items Discussion  Action Requested

Action Requested:  Approval of Legislative Priorities for the 2014 Legislative Session 2014 Legislative Agenda

Orange County Board of County Commissioners October 22, 2013