Strategic Options for Integrating Transportation Innovations and Urban Revitalization (SOTUR) Stakeholder Scenario Building: Imagining Urban Futures Development of Scenario Storylines Prof. C. Zegras

Scenario development in the context of the SOTUR project

Methodology for scenario development

Workshop 1: Factors affecting urban revitalization and driving forces Break-out sessions: Discussion of factors affecting urban revitalization in the cities of Coimbra, Lisbon, and Porto Identification of common driving forces Ranking of factors in terms of importance and uncertainty

Workshop 1: Output Economy  Economic growth (purchasing power, etc.)  Consumer access to credit for housing  Producer access to credit for real estate  Political/ Administrative  Capital city-centrism (public investments and policies)  Effectiveness of enforcement (e.g., of zoning, expropriations, definition of preservation and heritage)  More movement to “ideal” land and property tax system: e.g., Real estate taxes penalizing long-term vacant property, Split-rate property taxes  …….. Demographic/ Societal  Influx of students  Average population age in city centre  Capacity to attract young middle class families  Consumption preferences (shopping, healthcare, education)  Technology  Transportation Technologies Size  Transportation technologies combustion: speed of adoption of cleaner, quieter  Communication technologies e.g. virtual travel, tele-presence 

Methodology for scenario development

Workshop 2: Driver states Economy Political/Administrative Social/Demographic Technology EconomyGrowthStagnation Economic growth (purchasing power, etc.) +- Consumer access to credit for housing +- Producer access to credit for real estate +- Infrastructure provider access to credit +- Real Estate Supply +- Tourism += Private sector preferences for space/offices (urban versus suburban) US Government weight in economy =+ Export orientation (E) or services-orientation (S) SS Private investments favoring =+ Energy Costs ++ Travel Costs=+

Workshop 2 output: Matrix of states Political/ Administrative Economy Social/ Demographic Technology Selected by (number of groups): Strong central government Growth Dynamic Advance 3 Strong central government Growth Dynamic Neutral 0 Strong central government Growth Fading Advance 1"Status Quo" Strong central government Growth Fading Neutral 0 Strong central government Stagnation Dynamic Advance 1 Strong central government Stagnation Dynamic Neutral 0Social crisis Strong central government Stagnation Fading Advance 2 Strong central government Stagnation Fading Neutral 1Stagnant Suburbia Less-Centralized Growth Dynamic Advance 4Growth Less-Centralized Growth Dynamic Neutral 1 Less-Centralized Growth Fading Advance 0 Less-Centralized Growth Fading Neutral 0 Less-Centralized Stagnation Dynamic Advance 1Efficient Urbania Less-Centralized Stagnation Dynamic Neutral 0 Less-Centralized Stagnation Fading Advance 2Will technology save us? Less-Centralized Stagnation Fading Neutral 0

Methodology for scenario development

Selected scenarios Scenario 1 Crise Social Scenario 2 Nova Dinâmica Scenario 3 Desenvolvimento através da tecnologia Economic Stagnation GrowthStagnation Social/ Demographic Dynamic Fading Political/ Administrative Strong central government Less-centralized TechnologyNeutralAdvance

Scenario 1: “Crise Social” Growing Portuguese population with economic stagnation and neutral technological change under a strong central government Weak local governments Creation of a supra-municipal structure Funds and needs are not effectively matched Economic downturn EU and private investments are channelled towards the capital city but create few employment and opportunities Tourism decreases Large portion of new immigrants unemployed Worldwide boom in telecommunication technologies continues but adopted by a small share of the Portuguese population

Scenario 2: “Nova Dinâmica” Strong economic growth, dynamic social structure, and technological advance under empowered local governments Power of the central government declines Decrease in capital-centric government investments and more balanced distribution of investments More successful resource allocation at local level Agencies more fragmented and decisions poorly integrated Large infrastructure and cultural projects Immigration rates increase, especially of young professionals Increase in tourism, new airport Cleaner vehicles, telecommuting Building technologies achieve cheaper and easier ways to rehabilitate old buildings

Scenario 3: “Desenvolvimento através da tecnologia” Economic stagnation and population aging are associated with technological advance Portugal’s political structure is fragmented; the power of the central government declines Government’s policy on immigration is inward-looking Government fails to implement a coherent economic strategy Few employment and opportunities Portugal’s population is ageing and declining Government and private sector adopt new technology wholeheartedly Technological innovations with the highest market penetration are aimed at improving the quality of life of the elderly Cleaner vehicles, telecommunication technologies

Ultimate purpose of scenario visioning exercise Changing mental models Changing numerical models Understanding potential impacts of changes