Climate Test Bed Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow Fiona Horsfall Director, Climate Test Bed NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC 4 th Annual CTB Science Advisory Board Meeting ESSIC University of Maryland College Park, MD September 11-12, 2008

2 Outline HistoryHistory Current ActivitiesCurrent Activities Plans for the FuturePlans for the Future At this Meeting…….At this Meeting…….

3 CTB History Established in 2004 jointly by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office NOAA Climate Forecast Operations NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Climate Test Bed Climate Community Climate Community Research & Development Research & Development Vision –To significantly increase the accuracy, reliability, and scope of NOAA's suite of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community. Vision –To significantly increase the accuracy, reliability, and scope of NOAA's suite of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community. Mission –To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services. Mission –To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

4 CTB History Year 1 (2005)Year 1 (2005) –CTB Management Team Wayne Higgins (CPC)Wayne Higgins (CPC) Hualu Pan (EMC)Hualu Pan (EMC) Melvyn Gelman (CPC)Melvyn Gelman (CPC) Ming Ji (CPO)Ming Ji (CPO) –Climate Science Team To provide guidance for CFS improvements, computer usage, experimentsTo provide guidance for CFS improvements, computer usage, experiments –Transition teams To conduct experiments* and coordinate applications activitiesTo conduct experiments* and coordinate applications activities –Boards Oversight BoardOversight Board Science Advisory BoardScience Advisory Board

5 CTB History *Experiments –In-house use of the main frame (1/3 of the research computer) –Analysis of CFS simulations and forecasts –Consolidation of statistical and dynamical models –Climate product development –All projects vetted and ranked by Climate Science Team (panel of internal and external climate experts)

6 CTB History Year 2 (2006)Year 2 (2006) –3 funded projects (CFS Improvements) with transition goal FY08 –Continuation of internal experiments Year 3 (2007)Year 3 (2007) –1 additional funded project (Climate Products) with transition goal FY09 –Joint CTB – COLA Seminar Series (18 seminars) –Continuation of internal experiments, but decreasing –Fraction of CTB computer time used for CFS reanalysis –Support CPC-RISA partnership for climate product improvement/development

7 CTB Today Year 4 (2008)Year 4 (2008) –New management team Fiona Horsfall (CPC)Fiona Horsfall (CPC) Hualu Pan (EMC)Hualu Pan (EMC) Mike Halpert (CPC)Mike Halpert (CPC) Chet Ropelewski (CPO)Chet Ropelewski (CPO) –6 new funded projects with transition goals of FY09 (2) and FY10 (4) –Support Staff 7.05 equivalent FTEs7.05 equivalent FTEs 5.5 equivalent Contractors5.5 equivalent Contractors –Computing resources 1/3 NCEP research computer1/3 NCEP research computer Fraction of CTB computer time used for CFS ReanalysisFraction of CTB computer time used for CFS Reanalysis

8 Boards Oversight Board NCEP CPC Director – –Wayne Higgins, Chair NCEP EMC Director – –Steve Lord ESRL Deputy Director – –Randy Dole, Acting GFDL Director – –Vacant IRI Director – –Steve Zebiak NCPO Representative – –Rick Rosen NASA Earth Sciences Director – –Franco Einaudi Appropriate representatives of other stakeholders (e.g. NASA Earth Sciences Director) Oversight Board NCEP CPC Director – –Wayne Higgins, Chair NCEP EMC Director – –Steve Lord ESRL Deputy Director – –Randy Dole, Acting GFDL Director – –Vacant IRI Director – –Steve Zebiak NCPO Representative – –Rick Rosen NASA Earth Sciences Director – –Franco Einaudi Appropriate representatives of other stakeholders (e.g. NASA Earth Sciences Director) Science Advisory Board T. Barnston (IRI) T. Busalacchi (ESSIC, University of Maryland) - Chair J. Kinter (COLA) M. Harrison (UKMO) E. Harrison (PMEL) Tony Rosati (GFDL) Joe Tribbia (NCAR) D. Lettenmaier (University of Washington) K. Redmond (DRI) M. Suarez (GMAO) Science Advisory Board T. Barnston (IRI) T. Busalacchi (ESSIC, University of Maryland) - Chair J. Kinter (COLA) M. Harrison (UKMO) E. Harrison (PMEL) Tony Rosati (GFDL) Joe Tribbia (NCAR) D. Lettenmaier (University of Washington) K. Redmond (DRI) M. Suarez (GMAO)

9 CTB Today ProjectsProjects –10 funded total in FY08 –Anticipate 3-6 additional FY09 projects Other activitiesOther activities –Expanded CTB Seminar Series (Oct 2008) –Ongoing experiments –Ongoing support for CPC-RISA partnership

10 CTB Today Focus AreasFocus Areas –CFS Improvements Dynamics and physicsDynamics and physics Ocean-atmosphere-land-cryosphereOcean-atmosphere-land-cryosphere –MME Prediction System Consolidation techniquesConsolidation techniques VerificationVerification InternationalInternational NationalNational –Climate Forecast Products Drought (NIDIS)Drought (NIDIS) GIS, extreme events, etc.GIS, extreme events, etc.

11 CTB in the Future CPO plans to move CTB in the Climate GoalCPO plans to move CTB in the Climate Goal –from Climate Service Development –to Climate Research and Modeling Support for growing CTB and expanding activitiesSupport for growing CTB and expanding activities –Augmented R2O grants process –O2R (Model Test Facility) –Enhance understanding of weather-climate linkages to improve intraseasonal-to-interannual prediction –A Visiting Scientist Program

12 CTB in the Future Proposed Expanded Vision –An enhanced NOAA operational climate product suite through improved scientific understanding, skillful predictions, and products that meet the needs of a diverse user community. Proposed Expanded Vision –An enhanced NOAA operational climate product suite through improved scientific understanding, skillful predictions, and products that meet the needs of a diverse user community. Proposed Expanded Mission –To increase understanding of climate processes to improve predictions and accelerate the transition of research advances from the external climate community to improve NOAA climate forecast products and services. Proposed Expanded Mission –To increase understanding of climate processes to improve predictions and accelerate the transition of research advances from the external climate community to improve NOAA climate forecast products and services.

13 CTB in the Future R2OO2R VSP Science Challenges

14 CTB in the Future Funded projects –CFS improvements –MME –Climate Forecast Products, including development using next- generation reanalyses and reforecasts Support staff for funded projects Computer resources Satellite-retrieved data validations of CFS Support for and expansion of CPC partnerships for product development R2O

15 Table of Contents Executive Summary Background and Purpose Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support Implementation Strategy Future Priorities Budget 10 APPENDIX A. Guidelines for Adding Models 11 APPENDIX B. CPC-RISA Workplans 12 APPENDIX C. Climate Products List 14 APPENDIX D. Collaborative Transition Projects 17 APPENDIX E. Strategic Challenges 18 APPENDIX F. Acronyms 21 APPENDIX G. Contact Information 22 Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast Products in Cooperation with Partners CTB in the Future CPC / CTB White PaperCPC / CTB White Paper Partnerships can help us reach users to solicit requirements / needsPartnerships can help us reach users to solicit requirements / needs

16 CTB in the Future Model Test Facility –Technical and scientific support –Facilitate interaction of grant recipients with NCEP personnel –Annual User's Workshop on CFS –Post-doc stationed at GFDL to focus on evaluating CFS physics imported within the GFDL modeling system, comparing it with GFDL in-house alternatives O2R

17 CTB in the Future Visiting Scientist Program –For external scientists and their students –Work for an extended period of time at NCEP side-by-side with NCEP scientists –To speed the transition of their research into NCEP forecast operations VSP

18 CTB in the Future Funded projects to support better understanding of weather-climate linkages leading to improved ISI predictions –Improved scientific understanding and modeling of tropical convection and its interactions with the mid-latitude circulation Daily Madden-Julian Oscillation Indices Science Challenges Infrared global composite

19 Review of current projectsReview of current projects Overview of new projectsOverview of new projects Peek at FY09 proposal processPeek at FY09 proposal process Review of issues raised during last year’s seminar seriesReview of issues raised during last year’s seminar series Discussion of CTB Science PlansDiscussion of CTB Science Plans At this Meeting

20 CTB seeks advice of SAB on future directionsCTB seeks advice of SAB on future directions –Proposed strategic vision and mission –Proposed overarching scientific direction and structure –Science Plans from current focus areas –Other issues? At this Meeting