Fighting for the Last Drop? Water in the Middle East Ruminations by Peter Rogers February 25, 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

Fighting for the Last Drop? Water in the Middle East Ruminations by Peter Rogers February 25, 2005

Water Management can be Exciting

All is not Lost

RFWS land (110,300 km 3 /year) RFWS land (110,300 km 3 /year) Total runoff (40,700 km 3 /year) Total runoff (40,700 km 3 /year) Geographically andTemporally accessible runoff (AR) (12,500 km 3 /year) Geographically andTemporally accessible runoff (AR) (12,500 km 3 /year) Withdrawals [4430 km 3 /year (35%)] Withdrawals [4430 km 3 /year (35%)] Instream uses [2350 km 3 /year (19%)] Instream uses [2350 km 3 /year (19%)] Human appropriation of AR [6780 km 3 /year (54%)] Human appropriation of AR [6780 km 3 /year (54%)] Human appropriation of accessible RFWS land [24,980 km 3 /year (30%)] _______________ Human appropriation of total RFWS land [24,980 km 3 /year (23%)] Human appropriation of accessible RFWS land [24,980 km 3 /year (30%)] _______________ Human appropriation of total RFWS land [24,980 km 3 /year (23%)] Human appropriation of ET [18,200 km 3 /year (26%)] Human appropriation of ET [18,200 km 3 /year (26%)] Total evapotranspiration on land (69,600 km 3 /year) Total evapotranspiration on land (69,600 km 3 /year) Uncaptured floodwater (20,426 km 3 /year) Uncaptured floodwater (20,426 km 3 /year) Remote flow (7774 km 3 /year) Remote flow (7774 km 3 /year) Source. Postel, et al., 1996 Allocation of Terrestrial Renewable Fresh Water

Water Needs and Demands Needs –Drink 1 m 3 per cap/yr –Personal needs 100 m 3 –Grow food 1000 m 3 Each new person needs 1101 m 3 per yr. (US withdraws 2100 m 3 per yr) Question: How to meet needs? Demands –Based upon economic criteria –Quantity and price must both be estimated –Universally, water is under priced leading to large demands

In Middle East population is growing rapidly; doubled from ~100 million in 1965 to ~ 200 million in 1990 and is currently about 260 million Limited rainfed agriculture (more than 350 mm/yr) about 20% of total lands No water for additional irrigation Annual import of “virtual water” exceeds the flow of the Nile

Change in Water Use: Egypt and Korea Egypt 1950 population million income per capita $203 water available 58.8 cubic km cereal self-sufficiency 63% Egypt 1995 population millions per capita income $790 water for agriculture 47.9 cubic km cereal self-sufficiency 63% Korea 1950 population income per capita $146 water available 62.9 cubic km cereal self-sufficiency 67% Korea 1995 population millions per capita income $9,700 water for agriculture 12.6 cubic km cereal self sufficiency 34%

Nine Facts of Life for water Blue/Green/Brown water Asymmetries in water uses Irrigation flywheel Virtual water escape hatch Low cost desalination breakthrough Eco-sanitation revolution Transboundary conflicts Uncertainty of supply Idiosyncrasy of water institutions