Future Agricultures and climate change: Outline of a new theme Lars Otto Naess Thomas Tanner FAC Annual Review and Planning Meeting Brighton, UK 30 March 2010

Climate change and agriculture Increased risks from climate change on the agricultural sector Changes in the agricultural sector may increase vulnerability of already marginal systems New climate change policy developments at international level (post-Copenhagen) New actors and changing power relations in areas of climate change and agriculture Diverging views on what are the best options for adaptation 2

Adaptation options for agriculture Ranges from delivering ‘technical fixes’ in response to defined changes to supporting ‘climate robust’ agriculture and resilient livelihood systems in response to an uncertain future Agreement of need to address range of areas hides large differences in assumptions about climate change and agriculture, actors’ abilities, and the scope and process for policy adjustment and change Different narratives are supported by different actors, plays out at national and sub-national levels 3

Theme research focus Core research foci: 1.How international policy developments on adaptation play out at the national level, and their linkages to agriculture sector goals 2.The use of climate science information and seasonal forecasting in national and sub-national policy processes, as an example of a widespread (yet contested) adaptation support tool Linking with other FAC themes: – Linking the core research closely to (ongoing work and lessons from) other FAC thematic areas – Development of cross-thematic, co-funded “issue papers” to address particular issues 4

Research questions Main research question: How do international climate change policy processes play out in national and sub-national agriculture sector contexts? Sub-questions: Which international policy developments set the premises for agricultural adaptation? What are national governments ‘room for manoeuvre’? What are the key policy spaces? Which are the key narratives and actors underlying climate adaptation? How do these relate to national development goals? To what extent does adaptation research influence national level policy making? To what extent does local experience and practice inform policy at the national level? What are the main actors and their interests in the production and use of climate information, and what are their roles in policy formation? 5

Planned activities April-July 2010: – Identify research partners in Kenya and Ethiopia – Roundtables, literature review and scoping study to determine detailed focus – Initial discussion of joint papers with other themes, publication of web story – Project monitoring and evaluation August-November 2010: – In-country research (interviews, group discussions, documentary review) – Finalisation of project summary and web story ahead of COP-16 – Finalisation and peer review of first draft of report December 2010-April 2011 – Second round of interviews and documentary review – Development of draft policy briefs – Drafting of joint issue papers and policy briefs with other themes April-September 2011 – Finalisation of Kenya and Ethiopia studies and policy briefs – Presentation of results online and at international conferences – Scoping for further countries, themes 6

Key outputs Case studies in Ethiopia and Kenya Country policy briefs Journal articles Presentations at workshops and conferences (COP- 16) Web stories various websites Issue papers and policy briefs on overlapping areas with other FAC themes 7

Outcomes and indicators Outcomes: Increased realisation of the importance of policy process analysis An expanded group of policy experts engaging with climate change issues Increased focus on local-national linkages in adaptation policy making Increased understanding of linkages between post-Copenhagen investments and policy processes in the agricultural sector Indicators of success: Improved integration between agriculture in climate change in policy documents Increased openness about assumptions about climate change in climate change and agriculture policy documents (new) Increased number of policy dialogues between key actors involved with climate change and agriculture development 8

Integration of gender and social inclusion Gender-specific impacts of climate change Gender roles are changing within and among households with implications for vulnerability of agriculture to climate change Need gender-sensitive policies for adaptation, considering women and men’s different knowledge and household roles 9

CAADP engagement strategies Does climate change challenge the feasibility of projected growth in agricultural productivity contained in CAADP objectives? To what extent may CAADP drive responses to climate change in the agricultural sector? Linkages to CAADPs pillars – Land & water management: effects of land policies on ability to adapt – Market access: the role of markets for adaptation – Food supply and hunger: policy change in line with farmers’ preferences? – Agricultural research: improved research – farmer partnerships 10

Thank you 11

Adaptation and development: A continuum VulnerabilityImpacts Focus Addressing the Drivers of Vulnerability Improving fundamental factors to reduce vulnerability to poverty and harm, with limited direct attention to climate factors, e.g. health, education, women’s rights, accountability. Building Response Capacity Building robust systems for problem solving for both climate and non climate related activities, e.g. communications and planning processes, weather monitoring, and natural resource management practices. Climate Risk Management Integrating climate information into decisions to reduce negative effects on resources and livelihoods, e.g. disaster management, drought- resistant crops, “climate- proofing” infrastructure. Confronting Climate Change Focusing almost exclusively on climate change impacts, typically targeting climate risks that are outside historic climate variability, e.g. tackling sea level rise or glacial lake floods. ODAUNFCCC International funding Uncertainty, indeterminacy, ignoranceRisk Knowledge of climate change Approach Discrete AdaptationClimate resilient development Tanner and Mitchell, 2008; McGray et al

Adaptation and development: A continuum Addressing the Drivers of Vulnerability Improving fundamental factors to reduce vulnerability to poverty and harm, with limited direct attention to climate factors, e.g. health, education, women’s rights, accountability. Building Response Capacity Building robust systems for problem solving for both climate and non climate related activities, e.g. communications and planning processes, weather monitoring, and natural resource management practices. Climate Risk Management Integrating climate information into decisions to reduce negative effects on resources and livelihoods, e.g. disaster management, drought- resistant crops, “climate- proofing” infrastructure. Confronting Climate Change Focusing almost exclusively on climate change impacts, typically targeting climate risks that are outside historic climate variability, e.g. tackling sea level rise or glacial lake floods. Different narratives, with different actors and interests: Key challenges : mapping and understanding changing vulnerabilities Adaptation an issue of increasing agriculture’s resilience and ability to change, and enabling agency of farmers (institutions, social differentiation) Key challenges : improving projections and mapping of impacts Adaptation an issue of applying new mixes of technologies, “getting things right” (drought-resistant varieties) 13