Engineering Perspectives – Towards Structural Change Jackie Kepke, P.E. Workshop on Climate, Society, and Technology June 7, 2011

A web of challenges faces us today Population Climate Change Energy Supply Water Scarcity Security China India Urbanization

CH2M HILL delivers complex, challenging infrastructure programs… How do we make them sustainable and climate resilient? Iraq Water Sector Rocky Flats Cableuropa Singapore DTSS/Changi WRP Puerto Rico Infrastructure Hunter Water Treatment Alliance Ginn Development Bahamas London 2012 Olympics Pinnacle West Energy Cairo and Alexandria Program Management

4 Integrated technologies create more opportunities for sustainable solutions

AgricultureEcosystems Climate change impacts on water infrastructure and related systems  Regional drought  Intake elevations  WQ Issues  Evaporation  Groundwater depletion  Seawater Intrusion Evapotranspiration Crop yields Irrigation demands Growing season Marine, freshwater ecosystem collapse Widespread species extinctions Impacts on… Droughts and Floods Temp Increase More Frequent Storm Events Rising Sea Level Ocean Acidification Source Water Water TreatmentWastewaterStormwater Localized flooding Regional flooding Increased CSOs Other WQ issues Drainage system management Siting elevations Sedimentation Additional treatment requirements WQ issues: algae Siting elevations Outfall elevations SSO and CSO frequency Temp-dependent processes Receiving WQ

Impacts will be geographically widespread, but adaptive capacity is not  Integrated systems build resilience and help protect against climate risk  More informed social and public policy is needed to break down silos and build functional capacity

Integrated water management and systems approaches buffer against climate impacts

Example: Lower Colorado River Authority, San Antonio Water – Long-term Water Supply Planning Project  Challenge: Assess 80-year water supply plan for climate change impacts –Surface water availability –Groundwater and agriculture –River and Matagorda Bay health –Coastal erosion and salinity changes  Main Goal Provide recommendations to adjust capital planning for sustainable supply, accounting for climate change

Example: Bay Delta Conservation Plan  Challenge o Integrate water operations, tidal marsh, and fisheries analysis under future uncertainty including climate change  Main Goals o Recover endangered and sensitive species and their habitats in the Delta o At the same time, provide sufficient and reliable water supplies Delta smelt

The challenge is that trade-offs must be made and significant investments are needed

E stimated range of drinking water and wastewater utility costs for climate change adaptation through 2050 Does not include $500B in estimated infrastructure needs already identified by EPA not specifically related to climate change

Integrating Climate Uncertainty into Common Risk Assessment Frameworks Identify Planning Areas & System Sensitivity Analysis Vulnerability Analysis Risk Analysis Develop Adaptation Strategies Security Identify Planning Areas & System Sensitivity Analysis Vulnerability Analysis Risk Analysis Develop Adaptation Strategies Climate Identify Planning Areas & System Sensitivity Analysis Vulnerability Analysis Risk Analysis Develop Adaptation Strategies Asset Deterioration Risk Assessment Identify Hazards Establish Context Manage Risks

Are we ready, as a society, to make the needed investments?  How do local governments invest in climate change adaptation when Significant uncertainty remains Time horizons on which the impacts will occur are long Planning horizons are generally short Other pressing needs and financial constraints are immediate

Temperature Increase Droughts and Floods More Frequent Storm Events Rising Sea Level Ocean Acidification 14 Early Planning and Climate Data Access Monitor Effectiveness and Update Strategies Implement Strategies Assess System Vulnerability and Risk Develop Adaptation Strategies Climate Risk and Adaptation Planning Framework

AT WHAT POINT At what point can we no longer incrementally adapt? Are we ready to make transformative changes?

Integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation Mitigation Adaptation Drivers Global Climate Change Regional Impacts Natural Systems Human Systems GHG Emissions Natural Sources Anthropogenic Sources Primary IMPACT Sectors  Water Resources  Environment  Agriculture  Coastal Zones  Human Health  Water Resources  Environment  Agriculture  Coastal Zones  Human Health Primary CONTRIBUTION Sectors  Transportation  Industry  Electric Power  Agriculture/Forestry  Transportation  Industry  Electric Power  Agriculture/Forestry

Focus on employing strategies that have both adaptation and mitigation benefits  Water Conservation  Green Infrastructure  Water Recycling

Jackie Kepke, P.E. Global Technology Leader Water Portfolio Management