Dr Mark Williams Scottish Water/ UK Water Industry Research Ltd Always serving Scotland Catchment Management: Impacts of Climate Change – ‘Setting the scene’

Our Purpose Protecting public health Protecting and enhancing our environment Facilitating economic growth, affordability Resilience to environmental change is key

UK WIR The role of UK Water Industry Research (UKWIR) ● ‘One voice’ industry research ● New and emerging issues ● Areas that do not conflict with company interests

UK WIR UKWIR Key Collaborative Outputs ● Shared with Regulators / Government ● Underpins sectoral approach for agreement with regulators for business planning ● Consistent reporting on Climate Change Risk Assessments Water Resource Planning Tools CC Risk Assessment And Adaptation Planning Impact on Customer Demand Impacts and Responses for Water and Wastewater treatment

Water Resources Huge number of water resource zones (300+) Reasonable level of resilience, but climate vulnerability assessment indicates some issues Central (50% probability) estimate of the change in mean precipitation (%) by 2050 (high emissions scenario)

UKCP09 Convert raw data to evotranspiration and flows Joint probabilities: Temperature and Precipitation Develop and test wet/dry scenarios – cumulative flow issues Impact on chosen level of service (1 in 40) in 2030s and beyond Impact on Demand Detailed hydrological assessment – incorporate into models Complex Hydrologically Modelled Sources e.g. large reservioirs, rivers, boreholes etc Smaller sources, simplistic models e.g. small rivers/streams etc Joint probabilities: Temperature and Precipitation Impact on chosen level of service (1 in 40 ) in 2030s and beyond Impact on Demand General planning assumptions UKWIR Tools enable

Water Resources – Applying Climate Projections Cumulative WRZs at less than 1 in 40 (in 2039/40) with: NO Climate Change; MID yield from Climate Change; MIN yield from Climate Change.

Scottish Water Adaptation Studies Monitoring Range and type of monitoring better understood Significant gap – we do not have the data to understand how things are changing Surface Water Management Planning Identified extent to which this will support CC adaptation To be taken forward as part of SWMP work CC Risk Assessment Focus on understanding CC risks, failure nodes, detailed asset case study Further underpinned need for real data Need to extend – CC projection changes, Scotland’s Risk Assessment

Adaptation Plan Water Resource Planning – integrating CC Customer and asset flood risk management Surface Water Management Planning Monitoring – projects: raw water quality raw water quantity drainage and sewer flows/loads – trends Risk assessment updates and feed into Scotland’s Risk Assessment

Catchment Management - Water Quality

Contaminants and Sources Pesticides Colour Metals Nutrients Sediment Hydrocarbons SourcesPathwaysReceptorsContaminants Land based activities Agriculture Public amenities Engineering works Forestry activities WTW Customers Catchment specific Primary Benefits – Improved drinking water quality/treatment and value for money Secondary Benefits Environmental (quality, energy, carbon) Land users e.g. save land chemical inputs Catchment resilience

Catchment Management Team Area (WTW)Issue River Ugie (Forehill)Pesticides River Deveron (Turriff)Pesticides Loch of Lintrathen (Clatto)Nutrients Loch Ascog (Loch Ascog)Nutrients Dumfries Basin (Cargen & Terregles borehole)Nitrates Lochgoin/ Craigendunton Reservoirs (Amlaird)Colour

Monitoring in priority catchments River Ugie catchment

Issues encountered

Water Environment Management Plan (WEMP) Improved drinking water quality/treatment Net cost/carbon benefit Environmental benefit (improved biodiversity) Benefit land users e.g. save soils, save chemical inputs Partnership working Climate change – resilience, naturalising watercourses

The ‘ideal’ – resilient, natural watercourses

The Urban Challenge? Original objective: integrate climate models into drainage models BUT: Drainage planning is based on local statistical rainfall models Climate models based on statistical probabilities Applying climate projections to local models = too much uncertainty Need REAL DATA!

Morning 30 th July 2002 River Clyde at Glasgow Green On 30 July 2002 Glasgow’s average monthly rainfall fell in just 10 hours. This led to significant flooding across the city as the sewerage and drainage systems struggled to cope with the extreme weather conditions.

Overland flow

Surcharging Sewers

Ponding in low spots

Partnership through Collaboration MGSDP Partnership

Dalmuir WwT Shieldhall WwTW Daldowie WwTW Dalmarnock WwTW Paisley WwTW Erskine WwTW Partick WwPS Kinning Park WwPS Satisfactory CSO Flooding Aesthetic CSO Water Quality CSO Sewer System & Problems Legend

Surface Water Management Green Corridors GCC Flood Prevention Scheme - Ruchill

UK WIR ASSETS APPROPRIATELY ADAPTED TO SECURE SERVICES RESILIENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE DEVELOP DETAILED UNDERSTANDING OF ASSET BASE CAPABALITY INVESTMENT DECISIONS (Ready for PR14/SR15/PC) A FIT FOR PURPOSE SERVICE A FIT FOR PURPOSE ASSET BASE WITH WORK ROUND CONTINGENCIES IN PLACE DEVELOP DESIGN SPECIFICATION FOR ASSETS BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE QUANTIFY UNCERTAINTY TOOLS AND MODELS AVAILABLE RESEARCH INTO TOOLS AND MODELS FEEDBACK FROM GOVERNMENT DEVELOP DESIGN SPECIFICATION FOR ASSETS BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE QUANTIFY UNCERTAINTY TOOLS AND MODELS AVAILABLE RESEARCH INTO TOOLS AND MODELS FEEDBACK FROM GOVERNMENT DEVELOP DESIGN SPECIFICATION FOR ASSETS BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE QUANTIFY UNCERTAINTY TOOLS AND MODELS AVAILABLE RESEARCH INTO TOOLS AND MODELS DIRECTION FROM GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT DECISIONS (Ready for PR19/SR20/PC) INVESTMENT DECISIONS (Ready for PR24 etc) INVESTMENT DECISIONS (Ready for PR29etc)

Uncertainty and Impacts The mean is shifting The range is shifting twice as fast What are we planning for? Hansen et al (2012) June-July-August Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomaly