World Bank Education Strategy 2020 Phase II Consultations 1 Education Sector Board The World Bank October 2010

External consultation meetings, Phase 1 2 Region Number of Countries Represented Number of countries that hosted a consultation meeting Africa164 South Asia32 East Asia and the Pacific84 Latin America and the Caribbean 114 Middle East and North Africa42 Eastern Europe and Central Asia 132 Donors136 TOTAL6924

Themes & priorities from consultations in Low-Income Countries

Themes & priorities from consultations in Middle Countries

Website: Website: 5

How will the world look in 2020? 6 What will be the demands on education and on education systems?

Demographic futures shape education challenges What does demographics tell us about demands on education system?  High dependency ratio in LICs: adults have to take care of more children  Tax base is smaller in LICs than in MICs  Demographic dividends in MICs 7

The rise of new economic stars 8 Rodriguez, 2008

Percentage of population living with less than PPP$2/day East Asia & Pacific China Europe and Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia India Sub-Saharan Africa Poverty has declined … but less so in Africa

Short-term growth projections 10 WorldDeveloping countries Real GDP Real GDP (PPP) Main drag on global growth comes from high-income countries, with implications for external aid resources Robust prospects in developing countries for recovery in 2010

What else has changed since 2000? 11  Shifts in global politics, environment and security concerns  Greater adoption of Information and Communication Technology  More complex aid architecture and Paris & Accra declarations

So … what do these changes mean for education challenges? 12  How to increase learning opportunities in countries where the school-age population is growing rapidly?  How to afford post-basic education while still expanding basic education?  How to improve the quality of education while still expanding education?  How to ensure that youth enter the workforce with productive and employable skills?

13 So … what do these changes mean for education challenges?

Every child has a right to an education. And education yields huge benefits for individuals, families, communities, and society. 14 A country’s wealth and its prospects for development depends on the quality of its people— the skills and creativity of its workers, the capability of its leaders to govern well and to manage its resources, and the ability of its adult generation to raise healthy, educated and happy children – the next generation. One additional year of schooling increases an individual’s wage by 5-10%. “Half the reduction in child mortality over the past 40 years can be attributed to the better education of women.” (Lancet 9/2010) One additional year in average education of women reduces child deaths by 9.5%. Countries with high female education coped with extreme weather events better than countries with same income and weather conditions (Blankespoor, Dasgupta, Wheeler 2010)

Strategic directions for 2020 Bank’s mission in education Overall purpose of in education at the country level Strategic directions to achieve results Implementation levers Increase learning for all

Greater pressure on post-primary education  Increase in net enrollment rates in primary education  … and primary completion rates  Growing demand for secondary and tertiary education 16

… but large disparities remain within countries 17 % of youth ages who completed a given grade: Latest available data Indonesia 2007Egypt 2008Nigeria 2008

TIMSS 2007, Grade 8 Mathematics test scores Source: Filmer, based on analysis of TIMSS 2007 database Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning Within-country inequalities are as big as — if not bigger — than between-country inequalities

Strategic directions for 2020 Bank’s mission in education Overall purpose of in education at the country level Strategic directions to achieve results Implementation levers Increase learning for all Improve global debate by Building a high-quality knowledge base of data & analyses Improve policy & investment effectiveness in countries by Strengthening countries’ education systems

What is an education system? 20 Central & local governments State & non- state providers of learning Communities, private sector, CSOs, households Relationships of accountability An education system is a network of power & accountability relationships for delivering learning results

Strategic directions for 2020 Bank’s mission in education Overall purpose of in education at the country level Strategic directions to achieve results Implementation levers Increase learning for all Improve global debate by Building a high-quality knowledge base of data & analyses Improve policy & investment effectiveness in countries by Strengthening countries’ education systems Knowledge --System diagnostic & benchmarking tools & data --Learning assessments -- Research & Impact evaluations

What is an education system? 22 Central & local governments State & non- state providers of learning Communities, private sector, CSOs, households Relationships of accountability An education system is a network of power & accountability relationships for delivering learning results Foundation of evidence: reliable data at all levels of the system; know-how about what works, what doesn’t, and why

Diagnostic tools for education system  System diagnostic tools to:  Analyze alignment of core functions with allocation of resources and authority  Measure outputs and outcomes, not only inputs  Measure learning outcomes and skills, not only school enrollment  Monitor not only public providers but also non- state providers  Benchmark system performance  Use to benchmark system 23

Strategic directions for 2020 Bank’s mission in education Overall purpose of in education at the country level Strategic directions to achieve results Implementation levers Increase learning for all Improve global debate by Building a high-quality knowledge base of data & analyses Improve policy & investment effectiveness in countries by Strengthening countries’ education systems Bank products --System-oriented technical support --Results-based financing Knowledge --System diagnostic & benchmarking tools & data --Learning assessments -- Research & Impact evaluations

Results-based financing 25  From financing inputs to financing outputs and results  Disbursement against pre-specified implementation progress and performance targets  Disbursements could be linked to:  Products  Changes in institutions  Changes in incentive structures  Changes in policies

Strategic directions for 2020 Bank’s mission in education Overall purpose of in education at the country level Strategic directions to achieve results Implementation levers Increase learning for all Improve global debate by Building a high-quality knowledge base of data & analyses Improve policy & investment effectiveness in countries by Strengthening countries’ education systems Bank products --System-oriented technical support --Results-based financing Knowledge --System diagnostic & benchmarking tools & data --Learning assessments -- Research & Impact evaluations Bank organization --Practice groups --Multisectoral approach --Staff learning --Strategic partnerships

Education system has high capacity Education system has low capacity High economic development Low economic development Differentiated approach by countries’ economic development & capacity of the education system 27

Differentiated approach by countries’ economic development & capacity of the education system 28

Learning assessment capacity GDP per capita Differentiated approach by countries’ economic development & capacity of the education system 29 Mature Established Emerging Latent Poorest LICsRichest MICs Compensatory programs Is funding linked to results? Are teacher policies linked to learning results? B C D A A B C D

30 Knowledge Bank Organization Bank Products 1. Availability of diagnostic tools for education sub- systems 2. Number of research & impact evaluations on policies and interventions that use a systems approach 3. Development of skills measurement tool beyond measures of basic competencies 4. Development & implementation of capacity development program around the systems approach 5.Development of system-oriented staff practice groups 6.Number of loans/credits that have used results- based financing 7. Number of loans/credits that supported countries to carry out learning assessments and/or participate in regional or international assessments 8. Number of countries furthest from the Millennium Development Goals in 2010 that have received financial and technical assistance from the Bank Performance indicators 2020

31 Knowledge Bank Organization Bank Products 1.Number of countries that have applied system diagnostic tool, collected and used system data 2.Number of countries that have applied skills measurement tool, collected and used skills data 3.Number of loans/credits with satisfactory outcomes 4.Number of loans/credits that have used a multisectoral approach 5.Number of assisted countries that have progressed significantly towards MDGs Impact indicators 2020

32 Trends in the World Bank’s lending for education, FY1963- FY2010

Bank support for education 33

Focus of current WB education portfolio About half supports poorest countries through IDA funds 49% supports basic education 51% supports post-basic education 75% includes teacher development 50% includes learning assessments More than100 knowledge products on education 34

Discussion questions 1.Do the strategic priorities reflect the challenges & goals of partner countries? 2.How do we strengthen education systems to improve results? 3.How do we improve the global knowledge base on education systems and learning? 35 Thank you

World Bank’s lending for education (in constant 2005 US$) 36

Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning 37 Proportion of year olds who can read a simple sentence, by highest grade completed About 50% of Kenyan youth who completed grade 6 cannot read a simple sentence 90% of Malian youth who completed grade 4 cannot read a simple sentence