1 The Impact of the Presidential Elections on U.S. Foreign and Security Policy Presentation from Claude Longchamp, political scientist and historian for.

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Presentation transcript:

1 The Impact of the Presidential Elections on U.S. Foreign and Security Policy Presentation from Claude Longchamp, political scientist and historian for the ISN- CSS Interactive Community Roundtable © gfs.bern, Zurch, 9 Octobre 2012, 10-12

2 The main questions "The ISN invites you to hear and engage with four distinguished experts on the upcoming United States presidential election, its potential impact on American politics, and its possible impact on the future of US foreign and security policies. Some of the questions to be addressed include how are the candidates instrumentalizing current foreign affairs challenges in their election campaigns? To what extent can international developments influence the elections? What impact will the outcome of the elections have on U.S. international security and global stability?"

3 Thesis for the discussion Thesis 1: Due to the macro-economic forecasts, there are reasons for both election results: The further applicable reasons rather speak for the reelection of President Obama. Thesis 2: The common forecast-models are dominated by economic factors, but they are not sufficient for the conception of authentic forecasts. Thesis 3: Foreign affairs and security policy belong to the often additionally applied subjects to explain the election results. Wars with loss of life are a burden to the officeholder, success in foreign affairs and military politics on the contrary are a support. Thesis 4: Due to the micro-politics forecasts, president Obama is marginally ahead of his challanger Romney in terms of votes. In terms of electors in the election college, his advance is a bit distincter. Thesis 5: Questions of specific security policy and foreign affairs should not be overestimated in an election-analysis. They rather tend to support both candidates imagebuilding than being decisional arguments for the electors.

4 Thesis for the discussion Thesis 1: Due to the macro-economic forecasts, there are reasons for both election results: The further applicable reasons rather speak for the reelection of President Obama.

5 Douglas Hibbs: Bread&Peace Model (1)

6 Douglas Hibbs: Bread&Peace Model (2)

7 Douglas Hibbs: Bread&Peace Model (3)

8 Alan Lichtman‘s 13 Keys to the White House

Lichtman‘s Prognostic Model Regression methods were used to convert scores on the keys for the full period from 1860 to 2008 to a numerical prediction of the two party presidential vote. The regression yielded the following result: V = L V = the percentage of the two-party split going to the incumbent L = the number of Keys favoring the incumbent party Assuming that the incumbent Democrats retain 10 keys, their percentage of the two-party presidential vote is an estimated 55.0 percent of the two-party vote.

10 Thesis for the discussion Thesis 1: Due to the macro-economic forecasts, there are reasons for both election results: The further applicable reasons rather speak for the reelection of President Obama. Thesis 2: The common forecast-models are dominated by economic factors, but they are not sufficient for the conception of authentic forecasts. Thesis 3: Foreign affairs and security policy belong to the often additionally applied subjects to explain the election results. Wars with loss of life are a burden to the officeholder, success in foreign affairs and military politics on the contrary are a support.

11 Thesis for the discussion Thesis 1: Due to the macro-economic forecasts, there are reasons for both election results: The further applicable reasons rather speak for the reelection of President Obama. Thesis 2: The common forecast-models are dominated by economic factors, but they are not sufficient for the conception of authentic forecasts. Thesis 3: Foreign affairs and security policy belong to the often additionally applied subjects to explain the election results. Wars with loss of life are a burden to the officeholder, success in foreign affairs and military politics on the contrary are a support. Thesis 4: Due to the micro-politics forecasts, president Obama is marginally ahead of his challanger Romney in terms of votes. In terms of electors in the election college, his advance is a bit distincter.

12 Last Projection Electoral College Obama: 332 Romney: 206

13 Prognostic for the Elecotral College 2012 Obama:Romney Source 319:206 (13)ElectoralVote 311:228 FiveThrityEight/NewYorkTimes 309:229 PrincetonElectionProjection 303:235 RealClearPolitics/NoTussUp 285:253 ElectionProjectionElectoralVoteFiveThrityEight/NewYorkTimesPrincetonElectionProjectionRealClearPolitics/NoTussUpElectionProjection

14 Opinion Polls: Avarege on RCP-platform

15 Polly Vote‘s Forecast and ist components

16 Thesis for the discussion Thesis 1: Due to the macro-economic forecasts, there are reasons for both election results: The further applicable reasons rather speak for the reelection of President Obama. Thesis 2: The common forecast-models are dominated by economic factors, but they are not sufficient for the conception of authentic forecasts. Thesis 3: Foreign affairs and security policy belong to the often additionally applied subjects to explain the election results. Wars with loss of life are a burden to the officeholder, success in foreign affairs and military politics on the contrary are a support. Thesis 4: Due to the micro-politics forecasts, president Obama is marginally ahead of his challanger Romney in terms of votes. In terms of electors in the election college, his advance is a bit distincter. Thesis 5: Questions of specific security policy and foreign affairs should not be overestimated in an election-analysis. They rather tend to support both candidates imagebuilding than being decisional arguments for the electors.

17 Denver Debate (1): Effects in different issues

18 Denver Debate (2): Effects in different issues

19 Thesis for the discussion Thesis 1: Due to the macro-economic forecasts, there are reasons for both election results: The further applicable reasons rather speak for the reelection of President Obama. Thesis 2: The common forecast-models are dominated by economic factors, but they are not sufficient for the conception of authentic forecasts. Thesis 3: Foreign affairs and security policy belong to the often additionally applied subjects to explain the election results. Wars with loss of life are a burden to the officeholder, success in foreign affairs and military politics on the contrary are a support. Thesis 4: Due to the micro-politics forecasts, president Obama is marginally ahead of his challanger Romney in terms of votes. In terms of electors in the election college, his advance is a bit distincter. Thesis 5: Questions of specific security policy and foreign affairs should not be overestimated in an election-analysis. They rather tend to support both candidates imagebuilding than being decisional arguments for the electors.

20 Claude Longchamp gfs.bern Verwaltungsratspräsident und Institutsleiter gfs.bern Lehrbeauftragter der Universitäten SG, ZH und BE Thank you for your attention and goodbye!