A Look Over the Horizon For Policy Makers and Leaders

Education: A Look Over the Horizon Current Status (Workforce Demographics): – White working age population will decrease 63% by 2020 – Minority working age population will grow 37% by 2020 – the least educationally served and poorest segment of our population – From Alabama had a net migration of freshmen into our colleges and universities – From Alabama had a net migration of 16,000+ bachelor’s degrees out of the state –U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics cites the fastest-growing, highest-paying jobs require education beyond high school – by 2018 U.S. jobs will increase by 19%(1.2 million) for people with associate’s degrees and by 17% (3.1 million) for those with bachelor’s degrees. 55% of Alabama’s jobs will require postsecondary education by 2018 –Healthcare related occupations are expected to skyrocket –Jobs requiring masters degrees are expected to grow fastest –Outlook: Rapid decline in population with post-secondary degrees and credentials vs. ever increasing job market demand

Education: A Look Over the Horizon Current Status (Academics): –Less than 15% of Alabama’s 9 th graders earn an Associates or Bachelors degree –34.4% of 2010 high school graduates in Alabama's public two- and four-year colleges had to take at least one remedial course in either math or English. Conservatively costs Alabama $541M per year Cost to businesses in Alabama that have to teach employees basic skills is also more than half a billion dollars a year. Drains dollars for low-income students and forces high attrition rates Students who take remedial classes do not receive college credit for those courses and also have a significantly higher college dropout rate. –Qualified Non-College-Goers (2.5 GPA; college prep courses; advanced math) who don’t enroll in college 80% said availability of grant money was reason for non-attendance 63% said price of college was reason for non-attendance 33% worked at least 35hrs/wk Only 5% applied to college Outlook: Ability of the state to increase the number of post-secondary degrees and credentials is almost nonexistent without significant change

Education: A Look Over the Horizon Current Status (State Issues): –Affordability – tuition costs outpace inflation and median family income State fiscal forecasts declining – tuition subsidy for all students cannot be sustained at current / past rates Congress / Dept. of Education mandating administrative changes that drive increased institutional costs Textbook costs escalate each year –Accountability- not just for price but for school performance Schools should be incentivized for retention, completions, on-time graduations Time to graduation is biggest driver in student debt –College preparation vs. student access and success High school curriculum standards – disconnected from college readiness standards Student expectations and accountability must match systems requirements –State financial aid programs almost non-existent in Alabama Alabama is ranked 48th in the U.S. in need-based aid-- 94% of Alabama Pell grant recipients eligible for state need based aid (ASAP) did not receive it due to lack of funds Merit based aid to out of state students is often done at the expense of in-state students and lower economically situated students Outlook: Access and affordability will continue to decline and student debt will continue to grow resulting in large decreases in the number of degreed and credentialed students available for the state’s workforce

Education: A Look Over the Horizon Current Status (Real World): –State high school drop-out rates are at crisis levels –Participation in higher education remains relatively flat –Affordability of higher education has sharply declined -- more students than ever (1 in 10) graduate with $40,000 or more in student loans - - a nine fold increase from 1996 –Four-year college graduation rates are embarrassing –Market forces are shaping higher education –College leaders have defaulted their voice on substantive higher education issues to work on issues of institutional self-interest Outlook: by default, external parties are becoming the critics and advocates for change and higher education leaders are growing increasingly defensive rather than actively engaging legislators and policy makers

What’s Needed Next? Develop a performance based budgeting model –Improve student and school performance, persistence, retention, and graduation/completion rates by incentivizing students and school budgets –Create a funding model that allows schools to charge market rate tuition while “buying down” cost through financial aid to students with greatest need –Expand and fund statewide student database to connect PK-12 to higher education to workforce Restructure state financial aid program –Create merit-based aid programs aimed at state workforce requirements –Increase need-based aid to address changing demographics –Aim financial aid at Alabama students not at increasing revenue or national rankings –Develop low-cost remedial education alternatives