Food security strategies Domestic production – food self- sufficiency or food sovereignty. Commercial food imports – trade based. Food aid. Land acquisition overseas

SOME STYLISED FACTS Most Arab countries import around 50% of food calories. Around 35% daily calories from wheat. Largest net importer of cereals 2010=66 million mt. In 2010 Qatar, Libya, Oman, Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Saudi, UAE in world top 20 per capita cereal importers. IFPRI IMPACT model and FAO Food Balance Model predict food demand will grow rapidly and MENA food production will not keep pace to 2030 (except Sudan). Implies increasing food imports. 5 exporters – Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU and USA supply 73% of world’s traded cereals. Between MENA the only region that had an increase in proportion of under nourished people and this has worsened sine 2008.

Figure 1.1 FAO Food Price Index Note: The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices (representing 55 quotations), weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for Source:

Causes of food price shock Population and income growth – China, India, GCC. Changing food consumption patterns. Biofuel demand esp. in USA. Thin global food markets. Limited global stocks. Climate change and natural disasters. Declining global cereal productivity growth. High oil prices. Speculative trading in ag. commodities. Export restrictions.

Effect of high food prices in MENA Additional 4 million undernourished. Contributed to poverty. Food riots and demonstrations. Inflation – twice the level of world inflation in 2007/08. Deteriorating trade balance. Fiscal pressures.

Irrigated land devoted to cereals: Maghreb 40% Mashreq 73% GCC 73% In MENA agriculture contributes 12% to region’s GDP yet uses over 80% of region’s water compared to 4% used by industry.

Strengthening the trade-based strategy Improve supply chain efficiency. Develop virtual stockpiles. Invest in infrastructure to store and transport food.

MENA food sovereignty More domestic food production and/or Acquire land in third party countries

Riyadh Declaration “Emergency Programme for Arab Food Security” ratified First pillar is to boost Arab food self- sufficiency. BY 2030 following increases planned: Grain crops 57 – 93% Sugar crops 81% Oil seed crops 69%

Buying or leasing of land in other countries Between million hectares of land bought mainly by MENA. Saudi and UAE hold 2.8 million hectares in Indonesia, Pakistan, Sudan, Tanzania. Egypt in Sudan and Uganda. Bahrain in Philippines. Kuwait in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar. Libya in Ukraine and Zimbabwe. Qatar in Cambodia, Vietnam, Kenya, Sudan.

Land acquisitions in other countries by: Governments eg. UAE. Multinational financial institutions eg. Arab Authority for Agricultural Investment and Development (AAAID). Private companies eg. Saudi’s Al- Qudra.

Problems with land purchases abroad Lack of transparency. Labour abuse. Threatens host country food security. Locals lose land entitlements. Environmental damage. Political conflict. Opposition from agriculturalists in MENA Weak institutions in host country. New form of colonialism or imperialism.