60 Years ’ Changes of China ’ s Population School of Sociology and Population Studies Renmin University of China Zhenwu Zhai

60 years ’ Change of Population  Popualtion size and growth  Age structure  Sex structure(SRB)  Floating Population (migration)

60 Years ’ Changes of China ’ s Population  China is a developing country, with the largest population all over the world.  Population has a great impact on all aspects of society.  Population change is one of the greatest changes in Chinese society in past 60 years.

Ⅰ Population Size of China  Huge base of population On the founding of new China in 1949, the population had reached 541 million.  Rapid growth in first 25 years, slow down in last 35 years 1954~1969: from 600 millions to 800 millions; 15 years 1969~1981; from 800 to 1 billion; 12 years 1981~1995; from 1 billion to 1.2 billion 14 years 1995~2009; from 1.2 to 1.33 billion (133 million) 14 years  Fluctuation through 60 years Influenced by baby booming cycle as well as the adjustment of family planning policy

1950s:great expansion of population size  The “ steadiness ” of the birth rate and the “ quick decline ” of the death rate that caused the soaring of China ’ s population growth rate, from 16 ‰ in 1949 to ‰ in the middle of 1950s.  Average births increased from 10 million in 1949 to million in Population growth was speeding up during this period.

1959 and 1961: natural disasters  The attacks of serious natural disasters lead to the unnatural plummet of birth rate and sudden rise of death rate.  The quick increase of the population was temporarily interrupted

1960s:the biggest fluctuation  Birth rate returned to the level of over 37 ‰ again in  Number of birth reached the peak value of million in  The average net growth of the population over the 1960s was over 20 million per year. (7 million in 2008)

1970s: rapid population growth was slowed down  In order to slow down the population growth, in the early 1970s, Chinese government carried out a family planning campaign vigorously all over the country.

 Rapid population growth was slowed down in late 1970s.  The Fluctuation and rebounding of population growth appeared in 1980s.  Due to momentum, the population size is still growing,but the intrinsic growth rate dropped to negative (TFR ≈1.8 ) in 1990s.  Since 2000, the speed of population growth is decreasing  The declining of the growth rate was closely related to the family-planning policy. 1970s-2000 ： four phases

The covered population by different birth policy (%) Different Areas 1-child policy 1.5-child policy 2-child policy 3-child policy Eastern area Central area Western area Whole country Western area Present Birth Policy

Different Areas Weighted policy fertility Eastern area Central area Western area Whole country Western area The average “ policy fertility ” Present Birth Policy

Fertility rate ( ) Replacement level ： 2.1

Future ： negative growth  The growth of China ’ s population size won ’ t stop until 2030, the speed will slow down in accordance with the trend formed in the 1990s.  By 2033 or so, China ’ s population growth will stop and gradually enter the phase of negative growth.  it will be a turning point for Chinese population.

The population Projection( ) time projection when TFR=1.8 projection when TFR= million

Ⅱ Population structure  The Chinese population age structure is extremely anomalous. There are great differences in size among each cohort. “Three-concave” & “Three-convex” China will facing next baby boom from now to The main reason is that the huge cohorts which was born during 1985 ～ 1989 is going to enter the child-bearing age.

Rapid expansion of aged population year million

The proportion of aging population(65+) in the future yearTotal population （ 100million ） The proportion of aging population （ % ）

Shrinking family size  With the declining of TFR, the family size has gradually shrunk.  Old people will get less Supporting from sons due to small family size in rural area.

The average size of Family continue to shrink

The type of family (2008)

Changes of China's dependency ratio ( )

40 – year population dividend 65+ dependency ratio 0-14 dependency ratio yearyear

Number of labor force ( ) peak ： billion 1billion 0.93 billion year age15-64 age million

China's labor will not be short before 2050 period  The proportion of age group is ％ in  The proportion of age group will be 70% from 2000 to 2030, which is called the “Demographic dividend ”period. It has provided favorable conditions for China's economic development.  Before 2030, the dependency ratio will below 50%, which means the population dividend will last for 40 years (around ). Under the condition of huge size of the labor force and cheap labor costs, China's economy will continue to develop rapidly and become more and more competitive in the international market.  China’s labor force is much more than the total amount of other developed countries’. China will not meet the problem of labor shortage which was met by many developed countries. The real condition is that there will be a large number of surplus labor force in rural areas and a large number of non-full employment and unemployment in urban areas.

The distribution of average Sex ratio at birth all over the world( ) Ⅲ Sex ratio at birth

Sex ratio at birth in China  With the rapid fertility decline, the traditional concept of son preference has never changed. Therefore, when it is difficult for people to have more children, they turned to the demand for sex selection of children. （ Techniques available now ）  Sex Ratio at Birth in China has been high for more than a decade and continues to rise. it has become a long-term, major issue of China.

Sex ratio at birth continues to rise

sex ratio at birth of different provinces ( ) sex ratio of births TibetGuizhouTibet Beijing ， Tianji ， Inner Monglia,Liaoning,Jilin, Heilongjiang,Shanghai,J iangsu,Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan,Sichuan,Guizhou,Yunnan,Gansu,Qinghai, Ningxia,Xinjiang Beijing, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Yunnan, Tibet, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang Guizhou, Xinjiang Hebei, Shanxi, Zhejiang Fujian, Shandong, Shaanxi Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Fujian, Hubei, Gansu Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Yunnan, Ningxia Anhui, Henan, Guangdong, Guangxi Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan,Hunan,Guangd ong,Guangxi,Hainan,S ichuan,Shaanxi Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai 121+Anhui,Hubei,Hunan,Gua ngdong,Guangxi,Hainan, Shaanxi

sex ratio at birth of different provinces(2005) sex ratio of births provinces Tibet Jilin, Xinjiang, Liaoning Heilongjiang, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Chongqing Municipality, Yunnan, Zhejiang, Shandong, Gansu, Sichuan, Shanxi, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Hebei, Guangxi, Tianjin, Guangdong, Shanghai 120+ Hainan, Henan, Fujian, Jiangsu, Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Shaanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi

Possible consequences of high SRB Marriage squeeze (30 million young male Bachelors ） Social stability

Ⅳ Urbanization and the floating population  Floating population is a special concept in China which is closely related to the household registration system. It refers to the people who left their residence to live in other places.  It is estimated that the floating population in China has already reached 200 million in 2008, which means the formation of a third group (besides the rural farmers and urban citizens under the dual structure) —— the floating population.

Rural the floating population urban （ Lake ） （ Canal ） （ Lake ） Urbanization of England

Rural the floating population urban

Urbanization of England Rural the floating population urban

Urbanization of China Rural the floating population urban

Urbanization of China Rural the floating population urban

Urbanization of China Rural the floating population urban

The changes of flouting population in size ( ) The expanding size of floating population

The proportion of flouting population is increasing substantially. Floating population Non-floating population Floating population Non-floating population

Inflow to the coastal areas Distribution of destination(1982) Distribution of destination(1987)

趋势四：流入地分布的沿海集中化 Distribution of destination(1990) Distribution of destination(2005) Distribution of destination(2000)

Indicators of age structure of China's floating population ～ ～ ＋ total average age the median of age

Pyramid of the floating population The floating population are getting older

Floating children & Left-behind Children  “Floating Children ” refers to the children who “float” to and live in city with their parent(s), leaving their location. (near 20million in 2005)  “Left-behind Children” refers to the children living in the rural areas whose parent(s) has/have gone to city to work. (near 60million in 2005)

Ⅴ Summary  Rapid population growth rate has been slowed down, and growth rate will be 0 and negative in 25 years.  On the other hand, aging, sex ratio, floating population become new challenges.  Policy reform needed (birth control, household register system, social security system in rural, gender and so on)  It was a great change in population field in the past, but it will be a greater challenge in the future