The effects of using Facebook and Twitter on candidates’ electoral success The case of the German Federal Election 2013 Joss Roßmann, Tobias Gummer, & Stephen Quinlan GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences General Online Research (GOR16) March 2016, HTW Dresden, Germany

Internet & Online Campaigning  Obama‘s campaigns 2008 & 2012 as widely cited examples of successful online campaigning (e.g., Jungherr 2014)  Stimulated the use of social media (e.g., YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter) in online campaigns in many countries …  … as well as reserach on their use in campaigning (e.g., Dolezal 2015; Kruikemeier 2014; Lassen & Brown 2011; Vergeer & Hermans 2013)  Social media have received increasing attention in the German Federal Elections 2009 &

Social Media & Electoral Success  Personalization (Vergeer et al. 2013)  Interactivity (Kruikemeier 2014)  Network effects (e.g., retweets)  Gatekeeper (Jürgens & Jungherr 2011)  Multiplicators  Opinon leader (Karlsen 2015)  Mass media (Vergeer et al. 2013) 3

Social Media Use in Germany  Twitter: Very limited coverage in Germany (Busemann 2013)  2013 ≈ 3.9 m user (7% of online population)  Large differences in usage across age groups  years = 14%  Low intensity of usage & passive use (Busemann 2013)  Facebook: Larger coverage among voters in Germany (Busemann 2013)  2013 ≈ 23 m user (~41% of online pop.)  Higher intensity of usage compared to Twitter 4

Research Question  What are the effects of the use of Facebook and Twitter by candidates in the 2013 German national election on their electoral success? 5

Data  Candidates of the most relevant parties: CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, GREEN party, LEFT party, & PIRATES  Data  GESIS project on the use of Twitter & Facebook (ZA5973)  N = 2,345  Candidate survey of the GLES 2013 (ZA5716)  Response rate = 41%, N = 1,000 (complete Interviews)  Bundeswahlleiter: Official data on the election results  Vote share for direct candidates (1 st vote) and parties (2 nd vote) on the level of electoral districts  Elected candidates (direct & party lists) 6

Election results 7 DV1: Elected DV2: Share of 1 st vote

Direct and List Seats in the German Federal Election Source: „Direktmandate nach Partei und Vorsprung – Bundestagswahl 2013, endgültiges Ergebnis“ retrieved from wahlatlas.net. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons. Source: Bundeswahlleiter (

Twitter usage 9

Facebook usage 10

Results 11 p < 0.05

Results 12

Results 13 p < 0.10

Results 14 p > 0.10

Conclusions  Large variation in the use of Twitter and Facebook across parties and types of candidature  No or very limited effects of Twitter use on electoral success  rather weak evidence for effects of Facebook use  Normalization of online campaigning  Twitter and Facebook have become essential means of professional (and personalized) campaigning by the candidates  Party affilation, budget, incumbent bonus 15

Thank you for your attention! 16

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