Emerging Global Trends and Strategic Challenges in the Coming Decade Marvin J. Cetron, President, Forecasting International June 12, 2012 Emerging Global Trends and Strategic Challenges in the Coming Decade Marvin J. Cetron, President, Forecasting International June 12, rd Current Strategy Forum

21st Century Warfare is subject to the same trends that shape the global economy, society, technology, and politics -- and are, in turn, shaped by them...

Forward Presence Deterrence Sea Control Power Projection Maritime Security Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief – ACS21 Forward Presence Deterrence Sea Control Power Projection Maritime Security Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief – ACS21 Six Core Elements of the US Naval Mission

21st Century Warfare Global Trends 21st Century Warfare Global Trends

“From garrison support to expeditionary strategy.” – Forecasting International “From garrison support to expeditionary strategy.” – Forecasting International Economic Limits Require New Strategy

New Technologies Make Weapons Widely Available Geopolitical AND Asymmetrical LIC

21st Century Warfare New Equipment and Missions 21st Century Warfare New Equipment and Missions

More capable unmanned vehicles – and many more of them More capable unmanned vehicles – and many more of them Undersea (UUV) Surface sea (USV) Aerial (UAV) Fleet Ground (UGV) Space Sub-launched

Air War Today, more military pilots are being trained to fly from the ground than in the air! Today, more military pilots are being trained to fly from the ground than in the air! “Within ten years, 90% of military aircraft will have no pilot on board. Some will be fully autonomous.” – Marvin Cetron “Within ten years, 90% of military aircraft will have no pilot on board. Some will be fully autonomous.” – Marvin Cetron

Naval Missions Mobile Over-the-Horizon Sea Base Insertion and Extraction Insertion and Extraction Littoral Presence Joint Spec Ops

“There are two kinds of ships that make up the future of the US Navy. Submarines and surface-based targets.” – Admiral Hyman G. Rickover, Father of the Nuclear Navy “There are two kinds of ships that make up the future of the US Navy. Submarines and surface-based targets.” – Admiral Hyman G. Rickover, Father of the Nuclear Navy

New Submarine Missions Retrofitted Ohio Class for Sea Base Support Spec Ops Insertion and Extraction Support Spec Ops Insertion and Extraction Deep subs with long-range sonar and anti-mine technology Deep subs with long-range sonar and anti-mine technology Special mission UUVs Mini-sub Littoral Ops Multi-use UAV support from Trident launch tubes

Cyber and C5ISR Increased coordination with man-smart machines – enhanced battlespace communications Increased coordination with man-smart machines – enhanced battlespace communications Cyber attacks, cyberwar and disruption of C5ISR

Less troop transport for major land wars Less need for mass transoceanic supply lines More delivery and support for small special ops Ensuring maritime security (90% global trade) Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief Less troop transport for major land wars Less need for mass transoceanic supply lines More delivery and support for small special ops Ensuring maritime security (90% global trade) Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief US Naval Missions – 2022

Global Issues – I Economic stagnation constrains funding Emerging economies and BRICs growing R&D growing Advanced computing and communications growing Technology dominates economies and society Non-state actors proliferate Global Issues – I Economic stagnation constrains funding Emerging economies and BRICs growing R&D growing Advanced computing and communications growing Technology dominates economies and society Non-state actors proliferate

Global Issues – II Use of 21st century tech as a solution Cyberwar and cyber attacks destabilize, debilitate, and disrupt both military and civilian systems Cyber attacks on US Navy focus on disrupting C5ISR in battlespace, computers and communications everywhere else Global Issues – II Use of 21st century tech as a solution Cyberwar and cyber attacks destabilize, debilitate, and disrupt both military and civilian systems Cyber attacks on US Navy focus on disrupting C5ISR in battlespace, computers and communications everywhere else

Global Issues – Singularity Rise of the Machines By 2030, it is predicted that machines will reach the threshold where they will be brighter and much more productive than their human creators. Perhaps they will keep us as pets!

We no longer have 10 to 30 years to implement innovations, as we did in the 1950s. Therefore, we must streamline decision-making, acquisition, and deployment. Shrinking Product Cycle – II

Shrinking Product Cycle – I Four Phases Idea (Nobel Prize) Invention (Patent) Innovation (Prototype) Imitation (Mass market) Four Phases Idea (Nobel Prize) Invention (Patent) Innovation (Prototype) Imitation (Mass market)

The High Tech World 80% of the scientists, engineers, professionals, and technologists who ever lived are alive today! 80% of the scientists, engineers, professionals, and technologists who ever lived are alive today! And all of them are connected to each other by the Internet

“We developed a defense strategy that transitions our defense enterprise from having an emphasis of fighting today’s wars, to preparing for future challenges protecting the broad range of U.S. national security interests, advancing the Department’s efforts to rebalance and reform, and supporting the national security imperative of deficit reduction through a lower level of defense spending.” – DoD Strategic Guidance 2012 “We developed a defense strategy that transitions our defense enterprise from having an emphasis of fighting today’s wars, to preparing for future challenges protecting the broad range of U.S. national security interests, advancing the Department’s efforts to rebalance and reform, and supporting the national security imperative of deficit reduction through a lower level of defense spending.” – DoD Strategic Guidance 2012 FY 2013 Defense Budget