15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com How are you solving the puzzle? Integrated Risk Management Plans

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Strategic Risk Management Conference Supporting the FRS IRMP Process Mike Vicary Graham Holland Paul Murray

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Presentation  Work undertaken in supporting FRSs in producing their IRMPs  Overview of systems and methodologies employed  Some of the pitfalls/challenges faced  Plans for future development of systems

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com ORH

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Company Summary  ORH Limited was established in 1986  Over 400 studies undertaken in UK and Overseas  Main Study Areas – Health & Emergency Services  Main Clients – Service providers/commissioners and Government Departments  ORH specialises in modelling systems involving transport and access, particularly for the emergency services, to improve cost-effectiveness

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com ORH General Approach  Consultancy with specialised modelling software (developed in-house)  Expertise in analysis and modelling  We apply Operational Research modelling techniques to resource planning problems Operational Research is a management science that uses mathematical or computer modelling techniques to solve resource planning problems in operational service delivery

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Supporting the FRS IRMP Process

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com How are you solving the puzzle? Integrated Risk Management Plans

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Risk Matrix Risk = Likelihood x Consequence

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Response and Risk – The Planning Problem RiskLikelihoodConsequence = x Historical Incident Profile Response Time Response Type Preventative Measures Risk Group Incident Group  Too many variables to be handled efficiently and safely in one model; and  One model does not give transparent planning advice – it becomes a ‘black box’ where outcomes cannot easily be related to changes in inputs…..so  Divide the problem into risk & response to give transparent planning advice

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Incident Correlations between Years The geographical distribution of incidents is highly correlated between years Future Incident Profile = Historic Incident Profile is sound for initial ‘core’ modelling

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Response and Risk – A Planning Approach Minimise Risk - Prevention Develop quantitative understanding of risk profile to enable targeted prevention activities to be undertaken Minimise Response Times Modelling based on historical incidents to identify and test potential operational changes Reduce Adverse Consequences Research relationship between response time, response type and consequence by incident type Improve Risk Cover? Test operational solutions against exemplified risk profile – does improved response cover give improved risk cover? Future Incidents Sensitivity Analysis Future Responses ORH modelling, geared to minimising response times, can be linked to the other three ‘planning boxes’ to give integrated plans for change

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Risk, Response and Range  Separating response from risk allows powerful response models to examine a wide range of operational options quickly and with confidence  Response can be modelled with simulation techniques, taking account of all key controllable and uncontrollable input variables  Range cover (assumes static resources) allows optimisation modelling techniques to be used, and the solutions tested by simulating response Response v Risk – to allow a transparent planning process Range v Response – to allow range optimisation modelling

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Overview of Models Used

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Two Main Models  ‘FSM’ - Fire Service Simulation Model  ‘OGRE’ – Optimising by Genetic Resource Evolution Simulating Response and Optimising Range

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com FSM – Simulating Response Cover FIRE SIMULATION MODEL Simulates appliances responding to incidents of different types within a defined response regime Attendance time performance by incident type and responding appliance Cover maps for attendance times achieved by incident type Reports available by sub-area as required Utilisation by appliance and station workload Travel Times Appliance Deployments Incident Distribution Model Parameters

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com What FSM Can Do Simulates the cover impact of changes in:  appliance deployments  the balance between wholetime, ‘day only’ and retained stations  station locations and the overall configuration  improved mobilisation  shift systems and staff deployment  demand levels – future projected  combinations of above and others

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com OGRE – Optimising Range Cover OPTIMISING BY GENETIC RESOURCE EVOLUTION A ‘ Genetic Algorithm ’ for homing in on the ‘ best ’ deployment configuration Travel Times Optimising Criteria Incident Distribution Fix Station Locations Fix Total Appliances Minimise Response Times Fix Station Number Fix Total Appliances Minimise Response Times Fix Response Time Targets Fix Total Appliances Minimise Station Number Fix Response Time Targets Fix Stations Minimise Appliance Number

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com What OGRE Can Do  OGRE optimises the location of appliances  Targets relate to appliance cover for incidents  Embraces targets for 1st, 2nd, etc attendance  Embraces targets for different incident types  FRS determines appropriate optimisation function  Optimises to greenfield sites or around fixed points  Optimises with fixed or variable appliance number  Optimises with fixed or variable station number  Can optimise the location of ‘special appliances’

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com OGRE and FSM Modelling – Optimise Range and Simulate Response Validation Confidence in the Model FSM Simulation Test ideas for Change OGRE Optimisation Find the ‘Best’ Solutions Sensitivity Analysis Confidence in the Results All incidents modelled Serious incidents modelled

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Examples

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Study Areas

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Overview and Methodology Employed

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com ORH Study Objective & Scope Proposal Analysis & Model Validation Interim Report Modelling & Conclusions Draft to Final Report  1.5 months A typical study takes three months

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Analysis Demand Where? Incident Types When? Attendance Performance Distribution & Average Incident Types FR1A, FR2A SR2A Resources Wholetime, Retained & Day OTR Utilisation Job Cycle TAS OCC SER Crew Turnout Control Activation

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Analysis Outcomes  Quantifies current cover characteristics  Provides insights into study objectives  Prepares inputs/outputs for model validation  Informs the modelling phase of the study

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Modelling Validation Confidence in the Model Simulation Test ideas for Change Optimisation Find the ‘Best’ Solutions Sensitivity Analysis Confidence in the Results

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Modelling Outcomes  Response model validated for local FRS  Model, once validated, gives a powerful tool  Informs a range of planning issues  Model runs are very quick (decades in minutes)  Can be used iteratively in consultation with FRS  Solutions tested by sensitivity analysis  Can check solutions developed in-house  Provides robust information for consultation

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Future Development of Systems

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Future ORH Systems Development  Improve real-time dynamic cover model  Use OGRE to optimise against risk proxies  Develop response/risk modelling relationship  Model special appliances alongside ‘pumps’  Develop method for projecting future incidents  Research response/consequence relationship  Developments required by future FRS clients!

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Summary

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Summary  The IRMP planning process is complex  Separating response modelling from risk analysis - but with a link between them - works well  Modelling should inform plans in a transparent way, ensuring that impacts of change are clear  In-house skills/software combined with ORH modelling support can be a strong combination  Using specialist ORH modelling will give more confidence in plans for change

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com Integrated Planning In-house Staff In-house Software FSEC Consultancy Support ORH modelling and consultancy support can enhance the robustness of plans for change

15 th October 2007SRMCwww.orhltd.com How are you solving the puzzle? Make ORH part of your solution