Where now for Sustainable Transport? Moving People - Changing Expectations Conference Mike Slinn October 2008

Today’s presentation  Transport’s contribution to climate change  Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy  The Julia King Report  UCL Environment Institute Policy Report  Climate change and sustainable transport – the challenge for transport professionals

Transport’s contribution to climate change Background Stern report The UK contribution UK Climate Bill Aviation

Climate Change - Some Background….  Relationship between man made emissions and temperature rise first put forward in 1980s  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) formed in 1988  Published 4 Assessment Reports, latest in 2007  Increasing certainty over time  Climate change is real and is a threat

CO 2 levels  Atmospheric concentration  ppm, Pre-industrial 280ppm  Rate of increase is accelerating  ppm  Levels far exceed those from last 650,000 years  between 1995 and 2005 CO 2 levels increased by 1.9 ppm per annum  Climate change to date  Temp: , +0.74C, increase is accelerating  Sea Level , +250mm, increase is accelerating

Climate Change Outcomes - IPCC  By 2095, estimates are:  temperatures will be 1.1C-6.4C higher than 1990  Sea level will be 0.18m-0.59m higher than 1990  IPCC ‘Headline’ Scenario  CO2 concentrations must peak at 450ppm  emissions must reduce between 2000 and 2015  CO2 emissions in 2050 must be between 50% and 85% lower globally than in 2000  Projected impacts of climate change  Poorest countries suffer most

Global CO2 Emissions, Fossil Fuels,

CO2 Emissions by Country – Fossil Fuel Burning

Top 20 Emitters: Emissions / head & GDP

Global Growth Projections  Cars:  Present day – 600m  2050 – 1,100m in China & India alone  Population:  6,700m (2008) → 9,220m (2075)  Economy:  Global growth of a factor of 3-4 by 2050  Major future energy pressures from the developed and developing world

Greenhouse Gas Statistics - The Future Contribution

The Stern Report  Action is needed to contain emissions and to bring forward technologies that can deliver more cost- effective carbon reduction in the future  If unchecked, climate change could shrink global economies by 20%  Radical cuts are needed in the medium to long term  It may be cost effective for domestic transport to abate carbon emissions by around 40-60% in 2050 compared with 1990 levels.  Addressing the problems of climate change would cost less than 1% of global GDP

The Stern Report  Climate change is occurring  It is attributable to the increased levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere  There needs to be an increasingly stringent regulatory environment to reduce CO 2 emissions  “The climate change we expect in the next years will be due to our past greenhouse gas emissions.  Climate change later this century will be determined by the emissions we allow now”

UK CO2 Emissions by Sector

Carbon dioxide emissions for transport

Carbon dioxide emissions for road transport

New car average emissions

Draft UK Climate Change Bill  Aims to reduce CO2 emissions below 1990 baseline levels by  26-32% by 2020  60% by 2050  Targets exclude international aviation travel

HOL/HOC Jt Committee on the Climate Change Bill – comparing Road Transport and International Aviation

Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy (LCTIS)  Published by DfT in May 2007  Fourfold approach  Technologies for Road Sector  Car Fuel Efficiency Objectives  Technologies for Aviation Sector  Policy Implementation

LCTIS – Fourfold approach “Creating a stronger incentive framework for lower carbon transport technologies”  Carbon price signals  Other market-based and regulatory approaches  Research, development and demonstration of technology projects  Better information on carbon impacts and lower carbon options

LCTIS – Car Fuel Efficiency Objectives  EU intention to replace voluntary agreements with a new legislative framework to deliver average new car fuel efficiency of 130 gms of CO2 per km by  UK Government announced in the 2007 Budget its objective of cutting average new-car emissions to 100 gms CO2 per km.

The Julia King Review of Low-Carbon Cars (April 2008) “to examine the vehicle and fuel technologies that over the next 25 years could help to decarbonise road transport particularly cars”  Part 1 The potential for CO2 reductions  Part 2 Policy recommendations

The King Review – key findings compared to 2000 levels of traffic and carbon emissions  By 2030  50% reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre  30% overall reduction in emissions  By 2050  90% reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre  80% overall reduction in emissions

The King Review – potential solutions  Cleaner fuels – biofuels, zero-carbon electricity, hydrogen  More efficient vehicles – enhancements to conventional vehicles, introducing hybrid and electric battery technologies  Smart driver choices – purchasing low-emission technologies, pumped-up tyres, acceleration control, car-driver journey avoidance

The King Report - Conclusions  “….in the long term (2050 in the developed world), almost complete de-carbonisation of road transport is a realistic ambition. If:  substantial progress can be made in solving electric or other innovative vehicle and fuel technology challenges and, critically  the power sector can be decarbonised and expanded to supply a large proportion of road transport demand

UCL Environment Institute Policy Report 2007 Expect by 2020 that surface transport carbon emissions will rise not fall and aviation emissions will grow substantially Vehicle excise duty Fuel duty escalator Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation Voluntary Agreement with car manufacturers Dieselisation

Climate Change and Sustainable Transport – the challenge for transport professionals Managing Demand Changing Behaviour Accessibility and Social Equity Technology and Safety Administration and Finance

Managing Demand Economic and social reasons for travel Spatial planning Hard and soft management measures Reducing congestion More efficient use of scarce resources People and freight movement

Changing Behaviour Public awareness An accepted need for change (public and corporate social responsibility) Achieving corporate objectives Smarter travel choices ( healthier, less congestion, safer, environmentally and socially conscious)

Accessibility and Social Equity Ensuring everybody has good access to essential services (employment opportunities, shopping, health, education, leisure) Global equity

Contraction and Convergence

Technology and Safety Technical fixes to reduce carbon emissions Vehicle purchase and usage Impact on infrastructure design and maintenance Impact of road accidents

Administration and Finance Government funding of transport infrastructure Local transport funding Fiscal measures directed at reducing carbon emissions Future Carbon Emissions dependent on the link between transport and energy policies