© OECD/IEA 2012 The future of gas in Europe – if it has any Laszlo Varro Head, Gas Coal and Power Markets.

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Presentation transcript:

© OECD/IEA 2012 The future of gas in Europe – if it has any Laszlo Varro Head, Gas Coal and Power Markets

© OECD/IEA compared to the 2030 ambition: we made it to the base camp with a tough climb still ahead

© OECD/IEA 2012 Gas could become a HIGH carbon fuel during the lifetime of current upstream and LNG projects t/mwh

© OECD/IEA 2012 Some good news Technological progress in renewables and their integrationProperly functioning wholesale markets and trading hubs

© OECD/IEA 2012 Some challenges Concerns about energy prices and competitiveness

© OECD/IEA 2012 “This plant, if it’s located in Germany, energy costs are double, maybe triple; same in Japan. So this gives us a big edge” President Obama at the new AcelorMittal steel plant in Cleveland

© OECD/IEA 2012 Some challenges Energy efficiency

© OECD/IEA 2012 Pipeline diversification: A changing theatre programme…

© OECD/IEA 2012 Iraq: oil rather than gas will be the key priority Billion dollars (2011, MER) 0% 15% 45% 60% 90% Gas export revenue Oil export revenue Revenue as share of GDP (right axis) 30% 75% Export revenues total $5 trillion in the period to 2035, increasing from $80 billion in 2011 to over $200 billion per year in the 2020s & closing in on $300 billion by 2035

© OECD/IEA 2012 Transforming perceptions of gas supply security

© OECD/IEA 2012 LNG: Decisions in Tokyo and Houston will drive EU gas markets

© OECD/IEA 2012 Russian and European diversification Source: Gazprom

© OECD/IEA 2012 Chinese shale gas: the No 1 uncertainty in global energy markets Australian coal exports Qatar + Malaysia LNG exports

© OECD/IEA 2012 Has Europe killed the shale revolution before it would have begun?

© OECD/IEA 2012 North American shale gas could be cheaper in Europe than domestic shale gas Depth Supply chain Flow rate LNG LNG importers with a large shale resource: China, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil Shipping

© OECD/IEA – 2014: Coal’s last Hurrah in Europe

© OECD/IEA 2012 Could renewables compensate for the loss of nuclear in Europe?

© OECD/IEA 2012 Wind and solar compensated for the decline of domestic gas upstream

© OECD/IEA 2012 A portfolio of flexibility options Dispatchable power plants Dispatchable power plants Energy storage facilities Energy storage facilities Integration of power markets Integration of power markets Demand side Response Demand side Response Industrial

© OECD/IEA 2010 Gas as a backup for renewables: good news and bad news