The Graduate Labour Market – (Almost) Everything You Want To Know (And A Little More Besides) Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence Graduate Prospects

Popular myths about university and having a degree “Everyone has a degree nowadays” –35.8% of the adult population of the UK had a degree at the end of –41.6% of the UK workforce has a degree or equivalent population. – Less than half of students currently aged will ever go to university, and it’s unlikely we’ll ever see a situation where half even of a given age group goes to university.

Popular myths about university and having a degree Graduates only work for big business or on large training schemes –Last year, 36% of graduates went to work for companies with fewer than 250 employees, and one in five were with companies with fewer than 50 employees. –Large businesses tend to pay better, give better training and have more promotion opportunities. –Small businesses tend to give you more chance to have a say in the way the business is run, to get more responsibility, to have a more varied job and to learn a wider range of skills.

Popular myths about having a degree All the graduate jobs are in London –One in five graduates starts their career in London. Many of those jobs are confined to a relatively small area of London. –London is the top UK city for private job creation –Only Manchester compares to London for career progression –Companies with London HQs are the biggest private employers in every other city –20% of the country’s businesses are in London –48% of the population in London are graduates – compared to 35% nationally –Average weekly earnings in London are £676, compared to £501 nationally

Let’s talk about London….. If you want to be a Investment banker Economist Broker Media researcher PR professional Management consultant Then the majority of new jobs are in London If you want to be a Surveyor Engineer (all kinds, especially mechanical) Pharmacist Doctor Social worker Nurse Teacher or HE lecturer Then more than 80% of the jobs are outside London

“Many (or most) graduate are in jobs that don’t need a degree” Taking a view on an occupational basis, 68% of graduates from 2013/14 were in professional level jobs six months after graduation. When asked ‘Did you need the qualification you recently obtained to get the job you were doing?’ 42 per cent said that it was a formal requirement. A further 23 per cent said it gave them an advantage.

Nearly 11.9m workers with NVQ4+ (degree or equivalent) in the economy If 58.8% don’t need a degree, then that means 7m employed graduates are in jobs that don’t need degrees. Hence only 5 million jobs for graduates in entire UK need degrees - 17% of workforce. This is fewer than all the people in SOC 2 – professionals - which comes to 5.8m. Taking the argument at face value, even if you accept that no managers, and nobody in the arts, media, nursing, design, financial analysis etc (including careers advice and HR) needs a degree – Then you also have to accept that about one in six doctors, scientists and engineers don’t need a degree either.

An improving economy - Employer hiring intentions From the Bank of England Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions May 2015 Hiring intentions continue to improve Manufacturing a little more cautious

The regions

Changes in UK occupational structure

What do graduates do?

353,725 first degrees awarded to UK domiciled graduates last year. The majority were working after six months – 76.7% Unemployment was at 6.3% - a level usually associated with non-recessionary graduate labour markets. 57% of UK-domiciled graduates were women, 90% studied full time, 78% were no older than 24 on graduation, and 19.5% were from a minority ethnic background.

Last year’s graduates after six months

Last year’s graduates -Employment rates up for all subjects -Unemployment down for all subjects -More graduates entering ‘professional level’ employment -Subjects particularly improving this year -Finance -Accountancy -Marketing -Economics -IT/computing -Many of these subjects are already in shortage. Market for graduates is close to pre- recession state

Further study

Types of work for 2013/14 graduates

Most common jobs for 2013/14 graduates

Industry of employment for 2013/14 graduates

Change in industry breakdown in 5 years

Overseas students

WARNING: THE RESPONSE RATES ARE LOW AND NOT UNIFORM Work is ongoing on identifying potential bias. Other EUNon-EU 58.1% 34.3% Use this data as a rough guide, NOT as definitive

Overseas students

Jobs for overseas graduates

What do postgraduates do?

Masters graduates

Full time Masters graduates

Masters graduates – types of work

Full time Masters graduate employment

MBA graduate outcomes

MBA type of work

PhD outcomes

PhD type of work

Regional data

Around the country – most popular locations of employment outside London

Jobs in the north of England

Jobs in the Midlands

Jobs in the south of England

Jobs in Wales, Scotland and N. Ireland

Hard-to-fill and shortage vacancies

Employee mobility and retention Increased employee confidence leads to employees being more likely to consider moving jobs. Impact on employee retention. Increased rates of employee churn being reported. Competition for talent intensifying.

Wages Wages have been kept largely steady for a number of years. Increased economic confidence boosts capacity to offer wage rises – but also expectation of rises. ONS data suggests wage pressure for many professional qualifications is increasing.

Skills shortages Increased demand for skills leads to shortage. Clear signs of skills shortages in professional occupations IT Engineering Financial services (particularly those with a little experience) Middle management More expected to emerge

Skills shortages Recruitment difficulties had edged up and were at levels last seen during 2007, having broadened recently across a wide range of skills, levels of experience and occupations. For example, reports of a scarcity of experienced middle and senior managers had become fairly common. … In consequence … apprenticeship, graduate and school-leaver recruitment programmes had been either maintained or increased. Bank of England Agent’s Summary for July 2015

What’s the data on skills shortages?

Skills shortages -Data published in Comes from the Employer Skills Survey (ESS) from the UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) -A survey of 91,000 UK businesses -New data due later this year

Most hard-to-fill, graduate, skills shortage vacancies Nurses Production engineers in specialist engineering firms Software developers in specialist computing firms and in advertising/market research Head office HR Retail managers Primary and secondary teachers Management consultants/business analysts Recruitment consultants 10% of HTF, SS vacancies were in these areas.

Other hard-to-fill, graduate, skills shortage vacancies Civil, mechanical and design engineers and project managers in specialist engineering firms Web designers and project managers in specialist computing firms Medical doctors Nurses in social and residential care Project managers in local Government Procurement officers in market research Technicians at consultancy and head office Another 10% of HTF, SS vacancies were in these areas.

Skills shortage around the country

London Main occupations in shortage Human resources and industrial relations officers Nurses Marketing professionals Buyers and procurement officers Business project managers Programmers and software development professionals Managers and directors in retail and wholesale Main industries experiencing shortage Business and management consultancy Computing and IT Hospitals Central and local government Advertising Recruitment Engineering and technical consultancy Design Publishing

Skills shortage in different sectors

Manufacturing Main graduate shortages are in: Mechanical engineers – nearly twice as many as in any other occupation in manufacturing, and especially in aerospace Business sales – multiple sectors Project managers – instrumentation Engineering technicians – especially in supply chain Design and development engineers – electronics, instrumentation, control systems Quality assurance technicians - aerospace

Construction Most shortages in construction are for skilled tradespeople. Main graduate shortages are in: Construction management - for building projects managers Quantity surveying - for building projects managers Marketing - for building projects managers Project managers – buildings construction Estimators and valuers – specialist trades organisations Building technicians – building projects managers Mechanical engineers – rail construction IT technicians

Retail, transport and logistics Main graduate shortages are in: Retail management – particularly in specialised retail (non-supermarket). Business sales – particularly for wholesalers and specialised retail. Business development managers – supermarkets, vehicles trade, freight Marketing – newspaper sales Buyers and procurement Freight and transport managers

Media, IT and telecomms Main graduate shortages are in: Computer programming – by far the most common Telecoms engineering IT project management IT support technicians Web designers – IT industry Marketing – for IT specialists and journalism Business sales – IT specialist employers Buyers - media Editors in publishing Computer engineers in computer facilities management Producers and directors in TV and motion pictures

Finance Main graduate shortages of: Insurance brokers Financial accounts managers (banking) Clerks in banking, payroll and insurance Emerging shortages: Analysts for fund managers Financial advisers for credit organisations Marketing in securities and commodities

Business services and consultancy Main graduate shortages of: Recruitment consultants Production/design/civil/mechanical/niche specialist engineers (shared services/consultancy) Wages/payroll/accounts clerks (accountancy and PR) Programmers (market research) Buyers/procurement (market research/PR) Business analysts/consultants (management consultancy) Engineering technicians Estate agents Business sales (multiple sectors) Marketing associates (PR, market research) Tax specialists (accountancy)

Public sector Main graduate shortages of: NURSES – hospitals, clinics, residential care, childcare Nursery nurses/assistants Primary and secondary teachers Local government officers/clerks Doctors Civil service research/admin professionals Vocational trainers and instructors (particularly in education support) Fire service officers Welfare officers (residential/social care) Social workers Occupational therapists (therapeutic care) Teaching assistants (more for out-of-school activities) Ambulance staff Physiotherapists (private practise) Youth workers

There are different reasons why different professions might be hard to recruit

Reported reasons for being unable to fill posts

In summary The graduate jobs market improved significantly last year Most graduates are in jobs that require a degree We may get more improvement, but the rate of improvement may be slowing Regional differences in employment markets can be significant and large urban areas are the best bet for employment Recruitment and retention issues are set to intensify.

Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence highpeakdata.wordpress.com hecsu.blogspot.com