World Energy

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Agenda 1.Intro 2.Welcome to the World Energy Negotiations 3.Negotiation rounds 4.Debrief and your feedback

World Energy Real data Rigorous analysis Mock negotiations

 Formulate your negotiating strategy  What are your vital interests? What is politically feasible in your nation/bloc?  What do you need from the other nations/blocs? What can you offer them?  Talk to other teams and negotiate for the best possible outcome for your group  Prepare a brief intervention speech to outline your intended plans Process

We Will Test Pledges in En-ROADS:

Features of En-ROADS  Transparent  All equations and structure are available  Flexible  Assumptions are adjustable  Highly aggregated to be fast  Complementing, not supplanting, the EMF22 and other more detailed models  For grounding discussions to learn and strategize  not point predictions

What’s the situation today?

World Energy WELCOME

Global leaders from sectors across business, civil society, and government gathered to address the urgent climate change challenge….

Energy Supply Business leaders and regulators of energy companies from:  Oil  Gas  Wind  Solar  Utilities

Energy Efficiency Business leaders and regulators of energy intensive sectors like:  Car manufacturers  Shipping & Freight  Construction companies  Consumer goods producers

Land and Agriculture Farmers and land managers like:  Food companies  Government ministries  Farmer advocacy groups  Land conservation groups

Population and Consumption  Government agencies of finance & population  Religious organizations  Chambers of commerce

$ C ¥ C € C Carbon Pricing Representatives of major emitters: China, EU, US, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, and others

Climate Hawks  Climate advocacy organizations  Environmental NGOs  Global citizens

Goals:  Achieve commitments to stabilize emissions by 2100 at a level that limits global warming to no more than 2ºC above preindustrial levels.  Agree on a deal to distribute revenue from Carbon price (if any).

Total greenhouse gases (GHGs) Temperature Impacts

Energy CO2 emissions Land use CO2 emissions Other greenhouse gases Total greenhouse gases (GHGs) Temperature Impacts (N 2 O, methane, f-gases) Sources of Greenhouse Gases

Population Consumption Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Energy CO2 emissions Land use CO2 emissions Other greenhouse gases Total greenhouse gases (GHGs) Temperature Impacts The Kaya Identity

Population Consumption Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Energy CO2 emissions Land use CO2 emissions Other greenhouse gases Total greenhouse gases (GHGs) Temperature Impacts People $/person-year EJ/$ CO2/EJ X X X CO2/year Units behind the Kaya identity

Population Consumption Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Energy CO2 emissions Land use CO2 emissions Other greenhouse gases Total greenhouse gases (GHGs) TemperatureImpacts Population and Consumption Energy Efficiency Energy Supply Land and Ag C price Climate Hawks Teams for World Energy

Population Consumption Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Energy CO2 emissions Land use CO2 emissions Other greenhouse gases Total greenhouse gases (GHGs) TemperatureImpacts Climate Hawks Role of Climate Hawks Population and Consumption Efficiency Supply Land and Ag C price

Your Global Task: Manage the Unavoidable and Avoid the Unmanageable

 Formulate your negotiating strategy  What are your vital interests? What is politically feasible in your nation/bloc?  What do you need from the other nations/blocs? What can you offer them?  Talk to other teams and negotiate for the best possible outcome for your group  Prepare a brief intervention speech to outline your intended plans Process

Decisions  Actions  Each team will determine its own actions  Climate Hawks lobby others  Distribution of revenue  All teams lobby, Carbon Price team decides.  % of revenue to:  Industry  Public  Deficit reduction

2 minute plenary presentation by representative of each team describing your group’s commitment and your requests of others. Designate a representative to give your sector’s speech. After you prepare your proposal

Supplement

Relative attractiveness of renewables Percent of new capacity met by renewables Installations of renewables Relative price of renewables Progress down learning curve Learning Loop