Making the Job-Infrastructure Connection CALCOG Region Issues Forum Darin Chidsey

I Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy II.Business Community Engagement III.Economic & Job Creation Analysis

Southern California Association of Governments  Nation’s largest Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) and Council of Governments (COG)  Directed by a Regional Council of 84 local elected officials  6 counties  191 cities  Over 18 million residents  21,630 miles of highways and arterials  470 miles of passenger rail  6 air carrier airports

Anticipated Future Growth 4

Population Growth by County Million New Residents by 2035 Population Growth from 2008 to 2035 (Residents by County)

Recently adopted Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy Almost $525 billion in investments to improve the SCAG region’s transportation system through 2035 $263 billion in capital investments $217 billion in system operations, preservation, and maintenance $45 billion in debt service to advance construction of projects

Passenger Rail System 1990

Passenger Rail System Today

Passenger Rail Vision 2035 Image courtesy Metro © 2012 LACMTA Image courtesy Metrolink

Transportation Demand Management Active Transportation

Highways and Arterials Summary Image courtesy Metro © 2012 LACMTA

Goods Movement

Integrates Land Use and Transportation

GHG Reduction Targets from 2005 Base Year (per capita) %13% 9% 16%

Mobility: Reduce Per Capita Travel Delay by 1/3 60 minutes 40 minutes

Long-Term Funding Challenge VMT Index Population Index Gas Tax Index

RTP/SCS Financial Plan $524.7 billion (nominal dollars)

I Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy II.Business Community Engagement III.Economic & Job Creation Analysis

Southern California Share of California Job Creation: %

Southern California Share of California Job Losses: %

So. California Bay Area 41.5% 28.7% CALIFORNIA EDUCATION LEVELS BACHELOR’S OR HIGHER DEGREE %

So. California Bay Area $72,544 $58,331 CALIFORNIA MEDIAN INCOME $58,931

Founded: 2009 Mission: Advise SCAG staff on the economic implications of SCAG’s planning activities and to better engage key public and private stakeholders. Chairman: Greg McWilliams, President, Newhall Land and Farming Members: (Approximately 30) Including: LA Economic Development Cooperation, Orange County Business Council,Inland Empire Economic Partnership, LA BizFed, Southern California Edison, Southern California Gas Company, Large Real Estate Developers, and others Meeting Schedule: 4-6 times per year Global Land Use & Economic (GLUE) Council

Southern California Economic Recovery & Job Creation Strategy SCAG has not typically been involved in Economic Development In 2010, hired Chief Economic Advisor, Jack Kyser and engaged five Economic Advisors Conducted Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of the Regions Economy

KEY INDUSTRIES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Logistics Film, TV, Commercials Manufacturing Construction

I Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy II.Business Community Engagement III.Economic & Job Creation Analysis

27 Economic and Job Creation Analysis Economic Times required More Comprehensive Analysis of Impact and Benefits of Infrastructure Expenditures SCAG Retained Team of Leading Economists o Wallace Walrod, Ph.D., Orange County Business Council o Marlon Boarnet, Ph.D., University of Southern California o Christine Cooper, Ph.D., LA Economic Development Corporation o John Husing, Ph.D., Economics & Politics Team Used Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI Model) to assess impacts

28 Economic and Job Creation Analysis Components of Economic Analysis o Cost/Benefit of Investments o Economic Benefits of Construction Spending o Economic Benefits of an Improved Transportation System o Impacts of Fees

Cost/Benefit Investments 29 Cost Benefit Analysis Includes:

–2035 RTP/SCS Per Capita Cost Total 2012 RTP/SCS Cost in Constant Dollars Annualize Costs Translate into per day (365) Adjust for per capita (Average of 20 million) Cost is Less than $2 per day per capita

–2035 RTP/SCS Per Capita Benifit Over $5 per day per capita

Cost/Benefit Investments 32 Cost Benefit Analysis Includes:

Construction Benefit Construction 174,500 Annual Jobs 174,500 Annual Jobs

Network Benefits   Commuting   Accessibility   Transportation Network Benefits   Commuting   Accessibility   Transportation 354,000 Annual Jobs 354,000 Annual Jobs

Economic & Job Creation Analysis Full Results Annual Average CONSTRUCTION ALL NETWORK BENEFITS AMENITY & OPERATIONS RTP/SCS ,

Economic & Job Creation Analysis Full Results Average SALES TAX HIGHWAY TOLLS FREIGHT FEE GAS TAX VMT FEE All Revenue Options Impacts of revenue options with no reinvestment New jobs and their resulting local, state and federal revenues not reflected

Economic & Job Creation Analysis Conclusion - Per Capita Cost is less than $2 per day - Per Capita Benefit is greater than $5 per day Construction Benefits — 174,500 annual jobsNetwork Benefits — 354,000 annual jobsUser Fee Impacts — 67,000 annual jobs

Thank you!