Arctic Melting and Military Infrastrure: International and National Security Issues Professor Linda A. Malone William & Mary School of Law Marshall-Wythe Foundation Professor of Law and Director, Human Security Law Center

Arctic Melting Estimates predict an ice-free zone as early as Others have declared its inevitability by Photo: Greenpeace

New Opportunities New shipping routes Vast natural resources in the Arctic Sea and its seabed

Shipping Routes “Northwest Passage” and “Northern Route” ◦ Reduced length of sea-based trips from Europe to the pacific. ◦ Avoid dangerous routes near the Middle East and the Horn of Africa. Commercial maritime activity expected to increase fivefold this summer. Photo: Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage compared with currently used shipping routes, compared-with-currently-used-shipping-routeshttp://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/northern-sea-route-and-the-northwest-passage- compared-with-currently-used-shipping-routes

Natural Resources Oil and natural gas reserves Gold Copper Iron Ore Cobalt Nickel Diamonds Manganese Fish

Race to Claim Resources and Routes No international rules. Many countries have made claims or have stated an “interest.” Waters are already being contested by competing nations. Photos: 33ff.com

Solutions Restrict Access ◦ Tolls  Who is the controlling entity? ◦ Blockades ◦ Restricted access based on ship performance and standards Would block the free navigation of the seas

Effects Increased shipping, mining, and drilling Concerns for the Arctic ◦ Indigenous people ◦ Indigenous wildlife Environmental Concerns ◦ Increased carbon dioxide ◦ Who is responsible for oil spills? Photo: students.umf.maine.edu

Coastal Area Problems Rising sea levels Global coastlines home to 2/3 of the world’s population Land along rivers threatened Photo: earthinformations.blogspot.com

Problems for the Military Facilities Critically important infrastructure Readiness Increased requests for humanitarian help Photo: photo.accuweather.com

Military Facilities Rising sea levels could put existing facilities completely underwater. Islands could completely disappear. Storm surges could damage refineries and nuclear facilities. Photo: globalcrisisnews.com

Critically Important Infrastructure Routes, methods of transportation, heavy industry and production centers, port and docking facilities, and energy production and distribution stations. Could easily be damaged or destroyed because they are close to coasts. If this infrastructure fails, dependent military installations will be rendered useless.

Military Readiness Diverted attention ◦ Preventing and recovering from the calamities of climate change. Vulnerable bases ◦ Might be attacked if military personnel are evacuated or are busy with relief efforts. Troops in danger ◦ During recovery efforts, might be placed in hostile environments.

Increased Requests for Humanitarian Help If developing countries are damaged by rising sea levels they might ask for the United State’s help. The United States will have to delegate limited resources. Could take troops away from the US.

Solutions Incorporate measures to respond to climate change into worldwide strategy. Design, ex ante, blueprints for responding to situations where bases have been destroyed or troops are scattered around the globe.