The Sun Corridor: Arizona’s Megapolitan Future MAG Meeting Phoenix, AZ – May 24, 2006 Robert Lang, Professor and Director Metropolitan Institute at Virginia.

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Presentation transcript:

The Sun Corridor: Arizona’s Megapolitan Future MAG Meeting Phoenix, AZ – May 24, 2006 Robert Lang, Professor and Director Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech

What’s in This Talk? Review of Megapolitan Area Geography Arizona Sun Corridor Geography The Sun Corridor’s Ten Urban Realms Real Estate and Jobs Projections Policy and Planning Implications

Arizona Republic March 2006 Megas In the News

The Reality is That They Have Already Statistically Merged

Business 2.0 November 2005 Megapolitan Area Centerfold

Original 2005 Megapolitan Geography

Megapolitan Area Population and Growth Rates Megapolitan Area2004 Population*00-04 Growth Rate Arizona Sun Corridor Cascadia Florida Peninsula Front Range Great Lakes Gulf Coast I-35 Corridor Megalopolis NorCal Piedmont SoCal Megapolitan Total United States *Population in Millions

2006 Metropolitan Hierarchy TypesDescriptionExamples Metropolitan Current definition of the Census Bureau Pittsburgh, Boise Metroplex Two or more metropolitan areas that share overlapping suburbs but principal cities do not touch Dallas/Ft. Worth, Washington/ Baltimore Corridor Megapolitan Two or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities between 75 and 150 miles apart that form an extended linear urban area along an Interstate Arizona Sun Corridor (Phoenix/Tucson), SanSac (San Fran./ Sacramento) Galactic Megapolitan Three or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities over 150 miles apart that form an urban web over a broad area that is laced with Interstates Piedmont, Great Lakes Crescent Megaplex Two megapolitan areas that are proximate and occupy common cultural and physical environments and maintain dense business linkages Megalopolis and Great Lakes Crescent, Sun Corridor and SoCal

Possible Census “Combined Statistical Areas” by 2010 Phoenix-Tucson Los Angeles-San Diego San Francisco-Sacramento Washington-Baltimore-Richmond Tampa-Orlando New Orleans-Baton Rouge San Antonio-Austin Chicago-Milwaukee

Arizona Sun Corridor

Arizona Sun Corridor’s Types of Urban Realms TypesDescriptionRealms Urban Core Original core of metropolitan development. Cores are dense and often built out. Central Valley Tucson Valley Favored Quarter The most affluent realm containing upscale housing, retail, and office space. Northeast Valley Foothills Maturing Suburbs Rapidly developing suburbs with mature older sections and booming edges. East Valley West Valley Emerging Exurbs The most scattered and detached urban development in the region. Exurbs contain the most affordable housing. Mid Corridor Northwest Valley Santa Cruz Valley San Pedro Valley

Arizona’s Sun Corridor’s Two Main Sections Phoenix’s Six Urban Realms Central Valley, East Valley, West Valley, Northeast Valley, Northwest Valley, and Mid Corridor Tucson’s Four Urban Realms Tucson Valley, Foothills, Santa Cruz Valley, and San Pedro Valley

Arizona Sun Corridor’s Biggest Cities in Urban Realms Phoenix’s Realms Principal City Tucson’s Realms Principal City Central Valley (1) PhoenixTucson Valley (1) Tucson Northeast Valley (2) ScottsdaleFoothills (2)Marana East Valley (3) Mesa(3) West Valley (3) Glendale(3) Northwest Valley (4) PrescottSanta Cruz Valley (4) Sierra Vista Mid Corridor (4) Casa Grande San Pedro Valley (4) Nogales

Arizona’s Sun Corridor Projections 2000 to 2040 ProjectionSun Corridor 2040 Percent Change/Added Demographic Population9.3M109.7 Employment4.9M93.4 Construction Housing Units3.7M146.2 Com./Public Sq. Ft.2.4B226.4 Investment Housing--$541.1B Commercial/Public--$482.3B Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Virginia Tech

General Megapolitan Policy Implications The Megapolitan Interstate Network is Designed for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation, Environmental Pres. and Economic Development Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs Some Measure of Autonomy But Realms also Need More Effective Integration and Coordination

Specific Urban Realm Policy Implications Core Realms Infill and Redevelopment of Principal Cities Favored Quarter Realms Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing Maturing Suburbs Realms Create Mixed-Use Centers in Principal Cities Emerging Exurban Realms Open Space Preservation and Clustered Dev.