C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 PRIORITISATION OF OCCUPANT SURVIVAL FACTORS Ray Cherry Graham Greene Stèphane Deharvengt CABIN SAFETY RESEARCH TECHNICAL GROUP

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 PRIORITISATION OF OCCUPANT SURVIVAL RESEARCH TOPICS “To ensure that the available resource is used to maximum benefit in improving occupant survivability”

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 PRIORITISATION METHODS Methods explored:  Perceived Benefit  Questionnaire to Specialists  Cost Benefit  Difficulty in assessing cost for all the Survivability Factors considered  ICPTF Methodology used but considered to be too inaccurate  Benefit

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 LIMITED BENEFIT ANALYSIS  Considered limited number of Occupant Survival Research Topics  37  Using a Representative Set of past accidents selected from the CSRTG Accident Database  115  34 Survivable Accidents  81 Non-Survivable Accidents

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 BENEFIT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY  Dividing the accident into “Scenarios”

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 EXAMPLE ACCIDENT DIVIDED INTO SCENARIOS

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 BENEFIT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY  Dividing the accident into “Scenarios”  Reassessing the the likely number of Fatalities and Serious Injuries in the accidents studied had the aircraft been configured to the latest requirements  Statistical modelling using Survivability Chains

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 EXAMPLE OF A SURVIVABILITY CHAIN

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 LIMITATIONS  Sample size of Accidents  Level of detail in Data  Accuracy appropriate to High, Medium and Low Categories

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 LIMITATIONS  Sample size of Accidents  Level of detail in Data  Accuracy appropriate to High, Medium and Low Categories

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 LIMITATIONS  Sample size of Accidents  Level of detail in Data  Accuracy appropriate to High, Medium and Low Categories

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 COMPARISON OF ASSESSED BENEFIT

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 HIGHER PRIORITY TOPICS

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 JAA SAFETY STRATEGY INITIATIVE A European application example : JAA SAFETY STRATEGY INITIATIVE JSSI Occupant Safety and Survivability ad-hoc working group

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 JSSI Background  Purpose of JSSI:  Focused safety agenda based on structured data analysis  Employ resources in the most effective manner  Continuation of past efforts to improve safety Ideal fit for prioritisation activity undergone with CSRTG

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 JSSI OSS Tasking  Identification of bodies working on OSS  Emergency operations  Routine operations issues  Hazards induced by payload  Recommendations

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 Emergency operations Working method  Based on work performed by JAA OS PAG / international CSRTG  Use of CSRTG database  Analytical analysis to identify and prioritise survivability factors  Correlated with Fokker data and NTSB findings

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 Emergency operations : results  CREW DRILLS (EMERGENCY & EVACUATION) (Effect of Flight or Cabin Crew procedures on occupant survival)  CREW TRAINING (Effect of Flight or Cabin Crew training on occupant survival, including training knowledge retention)  SEAT/FLOOR STRENGTH (Seat deformation, seat detachment, or floor disruption)  CABIN CREW / PASSENGER COMMUNICATION (The effectiveness of communication between the cabin crew and passengers during an emergency situation)  EFFECTIVENESS OF SEAT BELTS (Includes the protection of occupants from injury and the ability to release) + Review evacuation in a holistic approach to exit performance

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 Summary of recommended topics  Crew Drills (Emergency & Evacuation)  Crew Training  Seat/Floor Strength  Cabin Crew / Passenger Communication  Effectiveness of Seat Belts  Review Evacuation in a Holistic Approach to Exit Performance  Dangerous goods  Reliable on-board mass and balance systems  Unruly / Aggressive Passengers  Smoking in Lavatories  Oven Fires Routine operations Payload induced hazards Emergency operations

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 Recommendations and action plan  Crew Drills (Emergency & Evacuation)  Crew Training  Seat/Floor Strength  Cabin Crew / Passenger Communication  Effectiveness of Seat Belts Action plans under development  Identify the JAR requirements for these issues  Need to identify relevant documents (research reports, Investigation boards recommendations, etc...  Identify the appropriate experts  Review Evacuation in a Holistic Approach to Exit Performance  Proposed by JAA for JAA/FAA harmonisation activity

C.S.R.T.G Third International Fire and Cabin Safety Conference 22 October 2001 On-going activity  The development of recommendations will benefit from the inputs (research, documents) discussed / disseminated within the CSRTG successful  The recommendations will also be discussed with the Authorities’ members represented in the CSRTG =A SUCCESSFUL CO-OPERATION PROCESS