FMCG SLOWS DOWN IN ASIA, HALF THE GROWTH THAN 2 YEARS AGO ASIA EMERGING MARKETS FMCG / MAT Q2 2014 & 2013 LATAM TAKES THE LEAD IN TERMS OF GROWTH LATAM.

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Presentation transcript:

FMCG SLOWS DOWN IN ASIA, HALF THE GROWTH THAN 2 YEARS AGO ASIA EMERGING MARKETS FMCG / MAT Q & 2013 LATAM TAKES THE LEAD IN TERMS OF GROWTH LATAM

HEALTHY BEVERAGES GROWING STRONG, RTD TEA WITHIN TOP RISER DAIRY PRODUCTS SPENDING INCREASES EMERGING MARKETS / MAT Q & 2013 TOTAL EMERGING MARKETS

ASIA / MAT Q & 2013 ASIA´S DECELERATION MAINLY SEEN IN FOOD CATEGORIES PRICE INCREASE, FOOD SCARES AND FRESHER ALTERNATIVES ASIA

LATAM / MAT Q & 2013 PERSONAL CARE DOUBLES SPEED OF GROWTH DAIRY PRODUCTS GAIN IMPORTANCE IN HOUSEHOLDS BUDGET LATAM

MAT Q | SUMMARY ASIA Growth ≤ -0.5%-0.5% < Growth ≤ 5%Growth > 5% Back to the beginning Back to the beginning #FMCGSlowdown Except for India, growth has decelerated in all Asian markets driven by low income households. E-commerce keep growing fast especially in Korea and China #BeautyFirst Personal care basket continues growing strong in Taiwan, Indonesia, India, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Make-up, skincare, facial tissues and liquid soaps keep recruiting shoppers #WesternCategories Breakfast cereals, spreads, butter, wine, ketchup among top recruiters in specific countries #GoSpecific Household cleaning categories with specific usage on the rise: toilet cleaners, insecticides, air fresheners, floor cleaners, wet tissue, fabric enhancers. Check out which categories grow where! % Value Change FMCG – MAT Q vs. Year ago

Back to the beginning Back to the beginning ASIA IN 10 CLICKS Click on each country to display or hide Insights

MAT Q | SUMMARY ASIA By clicking on the country insights will display. Click again to hide. CHINA PHILIPPINES TAIWAN SAUDI ARABIA Details per country: click here INDONESIA VIETNAM THAILAND MALAYSIA SOUTH KOREA #KeyDriver Lower tier cities are still the key driver for FMCG growth in China #GlobalMeetLocal International retailers experiencing fierce competition from local players #Blossoming E-commerce channel penetration has now reached 32% #MacroOutlookImproves GDP growth in Q2 quickens to 5.25%, up from the 5.0% increase seen in Q1 #ContinuousSlowdown FMCG growth in Urban has not escaped its current slowdown. Meanwhile, Rural market is losing its momentum #HealthyDrinks Functional Drinking Yoghurts, Mineral Water and Tonic Food Drinks are penetrating into more and more households for in-home consumption #RedLight Affluent Shoppers contract their spending on consumer goods. #BuyCheaper 43% of FMCG categories have a lower average price #SeekinMorePromotion promotional sales has increased in 8 out of 10 FMCG Categories #ProtectAgainstDengi Recent rise of dengi mosquito outbreak has lead to Malaysians to higher purchase of insecticide #MoreWesternBreakfast in association with cereal, butter, chocolate & nut spreads, cheese #ConvenienceIsGood Rising trend of shoppers seeking ready to use products: Drinking Water, Coconut Milk and RTD Tea for in-home #ExternalEffect National tradegy -Sewol ferry accident- affects people´s spend on consumer goods #MiddleIncome the only segment increasing consumption #Fast&Convenient& Personal Less time and easy usage attract people #ShortTermReturn Taiwan’s economic indicators are showing promising performance, with FMCG showing a slight short term growth return #FoodSafety the impact of last year’s food safety incidents is slowing wearing off, but performance of instant food categories still remained weak #FreshImpress Costco remain strong, but PX mart & CVS are declining in importance, possible reasons include decreased shelf space by fresh food expansion and popularity of Takeaway cups respectively. #BreakfastIsReady More Filipino homes opt to avoid cooking breakfast meals as RTE cereals continue to grow #ModernTradeGain Sari-sari stores remain the top retail sources of FMCG but have lost 3 sharepoints to modern retail in past 3 years #BabyCare With the rise of households with toddlers comes greater demand for baby essentials such as, wipes, diapers, and milk #VolumeContraction FMCG decline in volume is led by Beverages #AffluentShoppersDown FMCG spends among affluent class is going down over the years, a big drop is seen in average spend per household #RisingStars Spreads, Condensed Milk, Disinfectants, Labneh, Soups & Bouillon are posting double digit growth #Growth The only Asian country with accelerated growth #NonFood Personal Care & Household Care drive FMCG growth #StarCategory Awareness campaigns along with low cost led to Sanitary Pads significant growth in India INDIA #EconomySlowDown Q2´14 FMCG growth deceleration; impact of overall economy situation and external factors (May and June preparation for Eidul Fitri, school holiday, and preparation of new school enrolment) #InflationUp Q annual inflation rate is 6.8%. The biggest contribution in June inflation is foodstuff, due to price increases of commodities e.g. chicken meat, vegetables, electricity rates, cigarettes #Convenience and Indulgence trends Canned food, frozen food, RTD tea and soft drink are successful to grow (volume wise), even at the time when price inflation is high

VN TW TH KSA PH MY KR Back to Summary Asia IN ID China Back Homepage Growth ≤ -0.5%-0.5% < Growth ≤ 5%Growth > 5%0 MAT Q2.14MAT Q2.13MAT Q2.12BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA TOP 10 RECRUITERS IN CHINA (by penetration points growth) %CHANGE FMCG BASKET PER SOCIAL ECONOMIC LEVEL Hypermarket Work unit/ Gift / Free sample Supermarket/ CVS GroceryWholesalesOthers Source: MAT Q214 vs YA Category Penetration%

Growth ≤ -0.5%-0.5% < Growth ≤ 5%Growth > 5%0 TOP 10 RECRUITERS IN INDONESIA (by penetration points growth) %CHANGE FMCG BASKET PER SOCIAL ECONOMIC LEVEL Traditional Trade MinimarketSupermarketHypermarketOthers BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA *Indonesia National Data Source: MAT Q2 14 vs YA Category Penetration% MAT Q2.14MAT Q2.13 VN TW TH KSA PH MY KR Back to Summary Asia IN Back Homepage CN Indonesia

Kirana/Paan-Beedi (Traditional) SupermarketsChemist Network Marketing Others %CHANGE FMCG BASKET PER SOCIAL ECONOMIC LEVEL Growth ≤ -0.5%-0.5% < Growth ≤ 5%Growth > 5%0 BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA TOP 10 RECRUITERS IN INDIA (by penetration points growth) Source: MAT Q214 vs YA Category Penetration% MAT Q2.14MAT Q2.13 VN TW TH KSA PH MY KR Back to Summary Asia ID Back Homepage CN India

HypermarketSupermarket Internet Mall Door to door M&Ps Department Store Traditional/ Other %CHANGE FMCG BASKET PER SOCIAL ECONOMIC LEVEL Growth ≤ -0.5%-0.5% < Growth ≤ 5%Growth > 5%0 BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA TOP 10 RECRUITERS IN KOREA (by penetration points growth) Source: MAT Q214 vs YA Category Penetration% MAT Q2.14MAT Q2.13MAT Q2.12 VN TW TH KSA PH MY Back to Summary Asia IN ID Back Homepage CN South Korea South Korea

SupersHypers Grocery & PVS Direct Sales Others %CHANGE FMCG BASKET PER SOCIAL ECONOMIC LEVEL Growth ≤ -0.5%-0.5% < Growth ≤ 5%Growth > 5%0 BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA TOP 10 RECRUITERS IN MALAYSIA (by penetration points growth) Source: MAT Q214 vs YA Category Penetration% MAT Q2.14MAT Q2.13MAT Q2.12 VN TW TH KSA PH KR Back to Summary Asia IN ID Back Homepage CN Malaysia

Sari-sari Stores Modern Trade Groceries Market Stalls Drug Stores Others %CHANGE FMCG BASKET PER SOCIAL ECONOMIC LEVEL Growth ≤ -0.5%-0.5% < Growth ≤ 5%Growth > 5%0 BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA TOP 10 RECRUITERS IN PHILIPPINES (by penetration points growth) Source: MAT Q214 vs YA Category Penetration% MAT Q2.14MAT Q2.13MAT Q2.12 VN TW TH KSA MY KR Back to Summary Asia IN ID Back Homepage CN Philippines

VN TW TH PH MY KR Back to Summary Asia IN ID Back Homepage CN Kingdom Saudi Arabia Kingdom Saudi Arabia Growth ≤ -0.5%-0.5% < Growth ≤ 5%Growth > 5%0 BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA TOP RECRUITERS IN KSA (by penetration points growth) %CHANGE FMCG BASKET PER SOCIAL ECONOMIC LEVEL Source: MAT Q214 vs YA Category Penetration% MAT Q2.14MAT Q2.13MAT Q2.12 Hyper/SuperBaqalaMini marketWholesalePharmacyOthers

Grocery & Provision HypermarketCVSSupermarketDirect SalesOthers %CHANGE FMCG BASKET PER SOCIAL ECONOMIC LEVEL Growth ≤ -0.5%-0.5% < Growth ≤ 5%Growth > 5%0 BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA TOP 10 RECRUITERS IN THAILAND (by penetration points growth) Source: MAT Q214 vs YA Category Penetration% MAT Q2.14MAT Q2.13MAT Q2.12 VN TW KSA PH MY KR Back to Summary Asia IN ID Back Homepage CN Thailand

HypermarketsNat. CoopCVSDrug StoresDirect SalesSupermarketsOthers %CHANGE FMCG BASKET PER SOCIAL ECONOMIC LEVEL Growth ≤ -0.5%-0.5% < Growth ≤ 5%Growth > 5%0 BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA TOP 10 FMCG RECRUITERS IN TAIWAN (by penetration point growth) Source: MAT Q214 vs YA Category Penetration% MAT Q2.14MAT Q2.13MAT Q2.12 VN TH KSA PH MY KR Back to Summary Asia IN ID Back Homepage CN Taiwan

BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA URBAN 4 CITIES BASKET TRENDS – %Value Change MAT Q2.14 vs. YA RURAL Note: Data excluding gift TOP 10 RECRUITERS IN VIETNAM (by penetration points growth) Source: Urban Vietnam / MAT Q214 vs YA Category Pen% TW TH KSA PH MY KR Back to Summary Asia IN ID Back Homepage CN Vietnam Street Shops Modern Trade Wet Market SpecialtyDirect SalesOthers Note: Data Urban 4 cities MAT Q2.14MAT Q2.13MAT Q2.12

20 ASIA | KEY INDICATORS 2014 Sources: IMF, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Trading economics, India Ministry of statistics & Programme Implementation, Central Statistic Bureau Indonesia, Bank of Korea, Statistics.gov.my, Department of Statistics Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia, National Statistical Coordination Board, NESDB, Bank of Thailand, General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Taiwan Department of Statistics, *Notice that each country FMCG includes all the categories tracked locally, which are not necessarily the same across Asia. In India, limited number of categories reported due to KWP not recording price) Back to Summary Asia Back Homepage

Q | SUMMARY LATAM #SlowRhythm¹ The level of economic activity in Latin America continues to grow at a slow pace in #NarcissisticRegion Personal Care is the basket with the highest growth for the second quarter in the region #ModeratedGrowth¹ A regional growth of 2.0% is projected for 2014 according to IMF #HalfCategoriesRising 48% of categories in Latam show a volume growth in the second quarter of the year. Back to the beginning Back to the beginning

LATAM IN 10 CLIKS Click on each country to display or hide Insights

MÉXICO #PricesGoUp There is an evident increase in prices in Q2, so the ticket grows and frequency falls. #NearToTheConsumer Proximity channels are growing for most of the baskets. #SummerPromotionsComeEarly But do not support Supermarkets growth. VENEZUELA #QuenchingThirst Due to drought and supply problems to households, increases Water volume sales 33%. #InformalChannelsGrow Increase purchases in those channel despite high prices caused by commodity shortages. #TheMostBought Deodorants grows 24% mainly by Unisex segment. CHILE ARGENTINA BRAZIL BOLIVIA PERÚ ECUADOR VENEZUELA COLOMBIA MEXICO CAM BOLIVIA #PurchaseIntensity Bolivians accelerate consumption vs. 2013, spending more per purchase occasion. #ModernTrade Channel of revelation in 2014: more trips and more households driving the consumption. #LookinForPracticality Immediate indulgence and easy-to-cook food are a rising trend in the country. Click on the country in order to open the information, click againg for closing it. CHILE #HigherTicket Transversely reflected in different socioeconomic levels. #EfficientPurchases The trend continues towards a higher volume per occasion. #ContractionInCategories 70% of categories decreased consumption and 38% expenditure. (MAT to June 2014) ECUADOR #SmartExpenditure For Q2'14 households became more assertive in their expenditures. #ConsumptionTrends More specialized households, more practical, and more concerned about their health. #TraditionalTradeReactivates Reactivation of this channel in the states. PERU #LessConsumption Households in Peru remain conservative in their consumption. #PrioritizingLookingGood Households refuse to save in their appearance and personal care basket keeps growing. #IntenseBuyers Households doing less purchases but more intense. ARGENTINA #ConsumptionDrops Q2 at the same level of The drop focuses mainly inside. #ValuedCategoriesAffected Dispensable categories lose 12% of volume. #PrivateLabelsAndLowPriceBrands Are growing. The first decline in 10 years of main brands.. COLOMBIA #RiseOfFrequency Positive outlook for FMCG in the 1st semester of 2014, households increased their frequency of purchase. #CleanKitchen Kitchen towels and Napkins are the categories with higher growth. #ThirstyColombians Beverages and Dairy Products are the baskets in which Colombians spend more. BRAZIL #FeaturedMetropolis São Paulo and Grande Rio consumed more volume without losing frequency. Other regions keep the consumption stable. #ModernChannel&CashAndCarry Modern Channel consolidates its growth and Cash&Carry contributes more than Traditional. #BeveragesFall Heavy decrease in the categories of Waters and CSD. CENTRAL AMERICA #CentralAmericansMoreModerated The basket increases +1%, however Costa Rica and Guatemala didn't manage to recover in the 1 st semester of the year. #ThirstyInCAM Good performance in beverages, specially in water and CSD. Also dairy, impulsed by milk. #KeyBeingPresentInTraditional Informal channels showing growth, specially in households of SEL ABC+ and D. Back to the beginning Back to the beginning

VEN PER MEX ECU COL CHI CAM Back to Summary Latam Back to Summary Latam BOL BRA ARG

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Back to the beginning Back to the beginning MAT Q | KEY INDICATORS

Back to the beginning Back to the beginning