Supporting Small Scale Farmers’ Access to Climate Information

Resilient development, planning & capacity building; risk management information systems; catchment-level solutions; health and peace-building; infrastructure and energy development (flood protection, renewables, etc); adaptive technology innovation and implementation Heightened risk monitoring; storage of crops and fodder; live-stock marketing and destocking; checking and monitoring protective infrastructure; evacuation to safe areas Human nutrition & health; livestock nutrition & health provision; water supply; emergency shelter and HH equipment; safe and secure environments Restoring livelihoods; return of evacuated people to their homes; repair and re-habilitation of protective infra- structure, wells, etc; restocking of livestock/animal health, agricultural and household assets Emergency Response Rehabilitation Strengthening sustainability & resilience Preparedness Normal Vulnerability Context Local knowledge, climate forecasts, market projections, conflict assessments, health surveillance, etc Recovery Emergency Alert Thresholds Managing the risk cycle

Climate Science Local Formalised Climate Knowledge Local Non- Formalised Climate Knowledge all local indicators of climate used for predictive purposes experience-based understanding of climate variation and change local indicators that have a basis in science (known or unknown) for their effectiveness experience of climate variation and change verified by historical climate records community early warning systems (for floods, drought, etc) scientific research on bio-indicators of climate seasonal forecasts made locally relevant through participatory downscaling community development plans data from locally managed rain gauges short-term (1 – 10 day) forecasts seasonal forecasts global and especially regional climate models local climate station expertise in managing local climate data collection and recording

Application to resilience-building decisions – 1. How to respond to an early warning - saving lives and assets 2. Using seasonal and/or short term forecasts – adjusting livelihoods to improve productivity and income 3. Longer-term climate change – planning to manage incremental climate risks and enhance environmental sustainability Understanding uncertainty, finding the right communication methods Reducing bias

Community Knowledge – experience…

..and local indicators

Challenges to using local indicators Local scale Also probabilistic information Science basis? Climate change is itself altering bio-indicators Loss of traditional techniques

Seasonal forecast

So combine to increase use and relevance of the seasonal forecast + = (if LIs predict early start/finish to rains) 20% B 35% N 45% A 20% B 35% N 45% A or

What farmers actually did...

So we also need… A regular uninterrupted supply of short-term (3, 5, 7, 10 day) forecasts Communicated to farmers using easily accessible means (village notice board, mobile phone, etc) Rain gauges for farmer groups (esp. to increase local data collection and use, strengthen link between met service) To facilitate climate-smart decisions…

Addressing climate with other risks

Thank-you