Automating e-Learning: The Higher Education Revolution Professor J C Taylor Vice-President (Global Learning Services) The University of Southern Queensland Australia

Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50 years or so, technological revolutions would cause "gales of creative destruction” in which old industries would be swept away and replaced by new ones.

Technological Changes  Steam Power s to the 1840s  The Railways s to the 1890s  Electric Power s to the 1930s  The Motor Car s to the 1980s  Information Technology s to ?

The Internet Powerful technical, economic and social trends facilitated by the Internet are revolutionizing the traditional concepts of business and economics – their effects on higher education will be especially profound.

Pace of Change 1. Radio: 50 million users in 38 years 2. Television: 50 million users in 13 years 3. The Internet: 50 million users in 5 years Current prediction: One billion users by the year 2003

Internet Access Population (millions)  USA  China56.6  Japan51.3  Germany32.2  UK29.0  South Korea27.8  Australia10.6  Hong Kong 4.4  Singapore 2.3 Source: A C Nielsen, March 2002 Total global population estimated at 498 million

e-Readiness Rankings: Leaders 1USA Australia UK Canada Norway Sweden Singapore Finland Denmark Netherlands Switzerland Germany Hong Kong7.45 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score

A formula based on the following factors:  Connectivity (30%)  Business environment (20%)  e-Commerce consumer & business adoption (20%)  Legal & regulatory environment (15%)  Supporting e-Services (10%)  Social & cultural infrastructure (5%) Source: The EIU e-Readiness Rankings

The Knowledge Explosion Over 90% of the relevant literature in many technical fields, such as biotechnology, astronomy, computers and software, and environmental sciences, has been produced since J B Quinn (2001) Traditional programmatic approaches to education simply cannot keep up………...

The Knowledge-based Economy There are increasing signs that our current paradigms for higher education, the nature of our academic programs, the organization of our colleges and universities, and the way that we finance, conduct and distribute the services of higher education may not be able to adapt to the demands of our time. J J Duderstadt (2001)

Prediction 'The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force shaping society in the first half of the 21st century'. Cairncross (1997)

Thesis Interaction between Internet systems and educational processes will revolutionize traditional approaches to higher education.

Leadership Challenge A market-driven restructuring of higher education as an industry – while perhaps both alien and distasteful to the academy – is an important perspective from which to view the future of universities.

Five Generations of Distance Education Technology  The Correspondence Model  The Multimedia Model  The Telelearning Model  The Flexible Learning Model  The Intelligent Flexible Learning Model

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes No FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL Print First Generation No

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes No FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE MULTIMEDIA MODEL Print Audiotape Videotape Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Interactive video Print Audiotape Videotape Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Interactive video Second Generation No

Variable costs tend to increase or decrease directly (often linearly) with fluctuations in the volume of activity. In traditional distance education delivery, the distribution of packages of self-instructional materials (printed study guides, audiotapes, videotapes, etc) is a variable cost, which varies in direct proportion to the number of students enrolled.

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES No No No No Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace No No No Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE TELELEARNING MODEL Audio-teleconferencing Videoconferencing Audiographic communication Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing Audio-teleconferencing Videoconferencing Audiographic communication Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing Third Generation No

THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Interactive multimedia (IMM) Internet-based access to WWW resources Computer mediated communication (CMC). Interactive multimedia (IMM) Internet-based access to WWW resources Computer mediated communication (CMC). HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO Yes No Fourth Generation

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Interactive multimedia Internet-based access to WWW resources CMC, using automated response systems Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Interactive multimedia Internet-based access to WWW resources CMC, using automated response systems Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Fifth Generation Yes

Incoming “new” admin question from student Previous Questions USQAssist: Self-service Knowledge Base Previous Answers “Immediate” admin feedback to student NO YES Search / Match Trigger Ask a question/ send an USQ staff member – “New Answer” 5th Generation Application

Incoming “new” academic question from student Previous Questions Previous Questions Reusable Learning Objects Database Previous Answers Previous Answers “Immediate” academic feedback to student NO YES New Answer Search / Match Duty Tutor Trigger Metadata Schema Model 5th Generation Application

The transition from the Industrial to the Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued that to survive organisations would need to change from rigid, formula driven entities to organisations that were “fast, flexible and fluid”. Fast, Flexible and Fluid

Trying to change a university is like trying to move a graveyard --- it is extremely difficult and you don’t get much internal support. Organisational Inertia

Why should universities change? Increasing competition on a global scale. Organisational Challenge

Increasing Competition Unext (Business education only)   London School of Economics and Political Science   University of Chicago   Carnegie Mellon University   Columbia University   Stanford University

Increasing Competition The Higher Education Funding Council and the Department of Education and Employment has asked Treasury to provide an extra £100 million (approx. AU$300 million) to fund the e-University. Britain’s e-University

Increasing Competition Cambridge University’s business school has joined forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global communications group Pearson plc, to offer this new degree from September The Cambridge e-MBA

791 years ago Cambridge University passed a rule Requiring all students to reside in the town of Cambridge, England. In 2000 that rule was revoked. The 800 year-old rulebook had to be altered to make way for the university’s first Internet-enabled program, the global e-MBA. Fast, Flexible and Fluid?

Increasing Competition AllLearn (an e-learning partnership between Oxford University, Stanford University and Yale University) is offering 75 short courses in a dozen disciplines in the Fall Semester, starting 7 th October,

Increasing Competition   has enrolled over 20,000 students in 1,700 online courses since UCLA’s OnlineLearning.net  Has offered student discounts, refer a friend gift certificates, frequent flyer points, opportunities to win free tuition.

Increasing Competition University of Phoenix Online has 37,600 students. It made a profit of $31.8 million in 2001, and a profit of $23.6 million in the first six months of Source: The Economist (2002)

Increasing Competition General Motors University now offers an eMBA to provide online learning to as many as 86,000 GM salaried employees. General Motors University

Increasing Competition IBM’s Mindspan Solutions workplace and training systems employs 3,000 people to develop customised e-learning content for 900 clients in 57 countries. (Source: K Dearne (2002), The Australian IT)

The Big Picture   Change is the only constant.   Growth is the only certainty.

Future Projections  A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US$4.5 trillion) jump in global education expenditure during the next 13 years. (Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal 22 April 2000).   The World Bank expects the number of higher education students will more than double from 70 million to 160 million by 2025.

Future Projections  By 2005, e-learning will be the single most used application on the web. (Source: Harris, Logan & Lundy, Gartner Research, 2001).   Corporate investment in e-learning will grow from US$2.1 billion in 2001 to US$33.4 billion in 2005.

What type of institutions will survive? Will your institution survive? The Global Lifelong Learning Economy

 All students22,024  On-campus 5,659  Off-campus (Australia)12,010  Off-campus (Overseas) 4,355 Note: Students studying solely online 714 Enrolled Students USQ 2002

USQ’s International Students 2002  Singapore 1,605  Malaysia 1,198  Hong Kong 318  South Africa 204  United Arab Emirates 171  Japan 159  Pacific Islands 153  India 124  Canada 123  China 118  Germany 95 Total, incl. students from 95 other countries 5,792

Bretten, Germany

In many universities the development of web-based initiatives is not systemic, but is often the result of random acts of innovation initiated by risk- taking individual academics. Organisational Development

The implementation of education technologies including web-based applications at USQ is strategically planned, systematically integrated and institutionally comprehensive. Organisational Development

XML (eXtensible Markup Language) RENDITIONS: STYLE SHEET: CONTENT REPOSITORY: INPUT: Print Web CD DVD XSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSL XML DTD (Document Type Definition) XML Editor

The PC-ePhone

Content Areas Communication Areas Student Areas Group Areas

Using the Internet as a mode of delivery will not automatically improve student learning.

Laurillard (2002)…..“ The academic world has called each new technological device – word processing, interactive video, hypertext, multimedia, the Web- into the service of the transmission model of learning.”

The Potential of e-Learning  From transmission to transaction  From the independent learner to the inter-dependent learner  From transmission to transaction  From the independent learner to the inter-dependent learner

Computer Mediated Communication (CMC) There is a fundamental qualitative difference between a traditional on- campus tutorial and asynchronous written communication online.

Important Qualitative Difference Compared to the spontaneous and less structured nature of oral discourse, asynchronous discussion online engenders a disciplined and rigorous form of thinking based on the reflective and explicit nature of the written word.

Brown & Duguid (2000) emphasised the importance of regarding learning as a social act: “Practice is an effective teacher, and community of practice an ideal learning environment.”

Relevant Instructional Design Theories  ZPD: Zone of proximal development (Vygotsky, 1978; 1981)  Reflective practitioner (Schon, 1987)  Communities of practice (Brown, Collins & Duguid, 1989)  Situated cognition (Lave & Wenger, 1991)

Lave & Wenger (1991) emphasised the importance of the social context in which the learner is immersed, and learning as legitimate peripheral participation in a community of practice.

In the online context, legitimate peripheral participation has become associated with the term “Lurker”. “One of the “silent majority” in an electronic forum; one who posts occasionally or not at all but is known to read the group's postings regularly.” (The Jargon dictionary, 2002)

Is learning via peripheral participation really legitimate?

Student Participation Profiles  Proactive  Peripheral  Parsimonious Workers Lurkers Shirkers

Overview of Participation and Performance Student Sub- Groups The Workers The Lurkers The Shirkers Average Number: Discussion Board Hits Average Number: Messages Posted Average: GPA

The academic performance of the lurkers was on average not much less than that of the workers, thereby supporting the notion of learning as legitimate peripheral participation. Outcome

The success of the lurkers augurs well for the use of e-learning facilitated by intelligent databases and the flexibility inherent in interacting with virtual cohorts of students. The success of the lurkers augurs well for the use of e-learning facilitated by intelligent databases and the flexibility inherent in interacting with virtual cohorts of students. Future Development

Incoming “new” academic question from student Previous Questions Previous Questions Reusable Learning Objects Database Previous Answers Previous Answers “Immediate” academic feedback to student NO YES New Answer Search / Match Duty Tutor Trigger Metadata Schema Model 5th Generation Application

As the intelligent databases become more comprehensive, the institutional variable costs for the provision of effective student support will tend towards zero. 5 th Generation

In effect, fifth generation distance education will provide students with better quality tuition and more effective pedagogical and administrative support services at lower cost. 5th Generation

The transition from the Industrial to the Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued that to survive organisations would need to change from rigid, formula driven entities to organisations that were “fast, flexible and fluid”. Fast, Flexible and Fluid

Organizations in the 21 st Century The Internet is set to connect virtually everyone and everything – the Web is turning into humanity’s collective brain. Any organisation hoping to survive must mirror the Internet itself. It must become: The Internet is set to connect virtually everyone and everything – the Web is turning into humanity’s collective brain. Any organisation hoping to survive must mirror the Internet itself. It must become: open non-hierarchical democratic experimental tightly networked endlessly adaptable open non-hierarchical democratic experimental tightly networked endlessly adaptable

To survive and prosper organisations need to mirror the Internet and to develop a collective brain capable of - “habitual and radical innovation”. (Gary Hamel, Inside the Revolution, 2001) “habitual and radical innovation”. (Gary Hamel, Inside the Revolution, 2001) Universities in the 21 st Century

“Any new technology environment eventually creates a totally new human environment”. Marshall McLuhan The e-Revolution