416 S. Bell Ave. Ames, IA 50010 888-REG-8686 www.regfuel.com 2011 Biodiesel Market Outlook February 10, 2011 1.

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Presentation transcript:

416 S. Bell Ave. Ames, IA REG Biodiesel Market Outlook February 10,

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® REG Biodiesel Footprint 2

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® REG Emporia 60 MGY, Startup: TBD Emporia, KS REG New Orleans 60 MGY, Startup: TBD Destrehan, LA REG Houston 35 MGY, Startup: 08/2008 Seabrook, TX Low free fatty acid feedstock conversion (soy, canola, refined fats) Low 2011 Biodiesel Production High High free fatty acid feedstock conversion (fats, corn, waste greases) REG Newton 30 MGY, Startup: 5/2007 Newton, IA Low High REG Danville 45 MGY, Startup: 11/2008 Danville, IL Low High REG Ralston 12 MGY, Startup: 3/2003 Ralston, IA Low High Low High Low REG Seneca 60 MGY, Acquired: 04/2010 Seneca, IL REG Clovis, 15 MGY, Acquired: 09/2010 Clovis, NM Low High 3

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® America’s Advanced Biofuel EPA-defined “Advanced Biofuels” include Imported sugar cane ethanol Domestically-produced cellulosic ethanol Renewable diesel Biodiesel Biodiesel reduces greenhouse gas emissions by up to 86% compared to petroleum diesel Only Advanced Biofuel which is domestically- produced and commercially available 4

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® Biodiesel Plays Significant RFS2 Role Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) requires utilization of renewable fuels by petroleum refiners, importers 5 Four Categories: Lifecycle GHG Reduction Minimums (percent reduction from 2005 baseline) Renewable fuel 20% Advanced Biofuel 50% Biomass-Based Diesel 50% Cellulosic biofuel 60% Biodiesel

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® RFS2 Volume Requirements EISA Renewable Fuel Volume Requirements (RFS2) (billion gallons) Year Biomass-Based Diesel requirement Advanced Biofuel requirement , TBD by EPA , TBD by EPA , TBD by EPA , TBD by EPA , TBD by EPA , TBD by EPA , TBD by EPA , TBD by EPA , TBD by EPA , TBD by EPA 14.00

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® 780 MGY Estimated Production Mirroring 2008 Source: EIA, EPA, USDA

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® Agenda RFS2 Implementation 8

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® 2010 RFS2 Compliance Update Combined 2009/2010 renewable volume obligation (RVO) was 1.15 billion gallons RINS from 2008 & 2009 biodiesel production supplied approximately 725 million gallons towards the total 425 million gallons of 2010 production needed to make up balance USDA census data reports only 320 million gallons produced in Sources: Census Bureau M3 11K Report; USDA FAS Report for Imports/Exports

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® 2010 RFS2 Compliance Update In aggregate REG believes obligated parties fell short of 2009/2010 requirement Many of them may have to use their one-time deferral Many of obligated parties did meet their Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) in 2010 Advanced Biofuels category created further confusion/concern 10 Sources: Census Bureau M3 11K Report; USDA FAS Report for Imports/Exports

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® Monthly Gallons Needed to Meet Total Obligation (800 mil gal Biomass-Based Diesel Only) mil gal/month needed to meet total Biomass-Based Diesel Renewable Volume Obligation Obligated parties off to slow start in 2011

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® RIN Prices Play Key Role in Blending 12 Blenders’ Credit Reinstatement $0.92 per RIN, $1.38 per gallon RIN values will need to continue elevate to encourage discretionary blending Source: Oil Price Information Service

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® 13 Obligated Parties RVOs Obligated Party: petroleum refiner or importer Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs): gallons of renewable fuels required to consumed Via wet gallons or RINs Based on gallons Jan. 1 – Dec 31, 2011 Estimated percentage of total distillate to be consumed as renewable fuel Cellulosic biofuel 0.01% Biomass-based diesel 0.68% Advanced biofuel 0.77% Renewable fuel 7.95% Source: LT Hawthorne

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® Obligated Party RVO Example 14 RVO Category 2011 RVO PercentagesRVO CalcRINs Required2010 RINs (max)2011 RINs (min) Cellulosic biofuel0.01%153,300 30,660122,640 Biomass based diesel0.68%10,424,400 2,084,8808,339,520 Advanced biofuels0.77%11,804,1001,226,400245,280981,120 Renewable fuels7.95%121,873,500110,069,40022,013,88088,055,520 Total Obligation -121,873,50024,374,70097,498,800 Refiner producing 100,000 bpd gasoline + diesel in 2011 RIN Utilization Source: LT Hawthorne

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® Current Biodiesel Blending Economics 02/04/2011 Heating Oil$2.71 REG 9000/1 (FOB Midwest Plant)$1.90 over H.O. REG 9000/1 Biodiesel Price$4.61/gal Less Blenders Tax Credit($1.00) RINS ($.92/2011 Biodiesel RIN)($1.38) Customer Cost/Gal$2.23/gal 15

Copyright 2011 Renewable Energy Group ® Current Biodiesel Blending Economics 02/04/2011 Heating Oil$2.71 REG 9000/10 (FOB Midwest Plant)$1.70 over H.O. REG 9000/10 Biodiesel Price$4.41/gal Less Blenders Tax Credit($1.00) RINS ($.92/2011 Biodiesel RIN)($1.38) Customer Cost/Gal$2.03/gal 16

416 S. Bell Ave. Ames, IA REG Thank You! Rob Dascal (832)