© 2012 Boise State University1 Local Demographic Change: The Limitation of Big Data Jaap Vos Department of Community and Regional Planning July 16, 2014

© 2012 Boise State University2 We know a tremendous amount about the ecosystem, the water, snowpack, the hydrology and how to model the system. We know hardly anything about the people and the human system.

© 2012 Boise State University3 The problem with the human system is the increasing pace of change: How many people will live here? Who will these people be? What preferences/needs will they have? Homes, transportation, amenities, employment People have become increasingly mobile. People have more access to information and they have it quick.

© 2012 Boise State University4 As planners we have relied on data sources that are not particularly good at dealing with change Do we actually know what is going on?

© 2012 Boise State University5 Maybe even more important, does anybody ever read the fine print? Reporters and policy makers sure don’t.

© 2012 Boise State University6 Boise is ranked among the best cities in the US. Livability data

© 2012 Boise State University7 Idaho has a low educational attainment compared to other states. Myth or fact?

© 2012 Boise State University8 Idaho educational attainment:

© 2012 Boise State University9 Idaho educational attainment: 8 % 24 % 30 % 24 % 12 %

© 2012 Boise State University10 Boise has both a low educational attainment and low income levels. Myth or FactMyth or Fact?

© 2012 Boise State University11 Manhattan Institute identified Idaho as main growth corridor.

© 2012 Boise State University12

© 2012 Boise State University13 Some Idaho facts: Change Population1,293,9531,567,58221%273,629 Median age White (%) % Black (%) %4,230 Hispanic (%) %96,638 Mexican (%) Household size2.7 Family size3.2 Housing units527,824667,79627% Seasonal housing27,47841,66052%

© 2012 Boise State University14 Meridian is one of the fastest growing cities in the US:

© 2012 Boise State University15 Obviously Meridian is on its way to become the biggest city in Idaho.

© 2012 Boise State University16 According to Census not in my life: %Absolute Boise206,345209,258212,237214, %7892 Nampa81,83682,63283,92186, %4682 Meridian75,60277,86780,40983, %7994

© 2012 Boise State University17 According to Gem State Prospector never: %Absolute Boise206,345214,1683.8%7823 Nampa81,83684,7803.6%2944 Meridian75,60278,2143.5%2612

© 2012 Boise State University18 Difference between two data sources: 2013 Census 2014 Gem StateDifference Boise214,237214,16869 Nampa86,51884,7801,738 Meridian83,59678,2145,382

© 2012 Boise State University19 The Treasure Valley will have 1 million people by According to COMPASS projections in Communities in Motion

© 2012 Boise State University20 According to census significantly off: %Need2015% Boise206,345209,258212,237214,2373.8%31,328245, % Nampa81,83682,63283,92186,5185.7%11,60297, % Meridian75,60277,86780,40983, %10,69394, %

© 2012 Boise State University21 According to census significantly off: %Need2015% Boise206,345209,258212,237214,2373.8%31,328245, % Nampa81,83682,63283,92186,5185.7%11,60297, % Meridian75,60277,86780,40983, %10,69394, % Needed363,783384,3515.6%53,083437, %

© 2012 Boise State University22 According to DOC significantly off: %Need2015% Boise206,345214,1683.8%31,397245, % Nampa81,83684,7803.6%12,80097, % Meridian75,60278,2143.5%16,07594, %

© 2012 Boise State University23 According to DOC significantly off: %Need2015% Boise206,345214,1683.8%31,397245, % Nampa81,83684,7803.6%12,80097, % Meridian75,60278,2143.5%16,07594, % Needed363,783377,1623.7%60,272437, %

© 2012 Boise State University24 SO WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON WITH THE LOCAL POPULATION? 2010 Census probably most accurate.

© 2012 Boise State University25

© 2012 Boise State University26

© 2012 Boise State University27 Changes between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2013 according to census: Idaho's population grew by 44,495 people (growth of 2.8%) Ada County's population grew by 24,099 people (growth of 6.1%) Boise MSA grew by 5.5 percent to a population of 650,288. (one of the fastest growing MSAs in the country.) 28 of the 44 Counties in Idaho lost population 36 of the 44 Counties in Idaho had a negative net migration Ada, Canyon, Kootenai, Latah, Lewis, Nez Perce, Shoshone and Twin Falls County had more people moving into the county than moving out

© 2012 Boise State University28 Idaho’s fastest growing counties: Ada County, 6.1 % Canyon County, 5,3 % Kootenai, 4.2 % Twin Falls, 3.5 % Bonneville, 3.2 %

© 2012 Boise State University29 Idaho’s top 5 growth counties: Ada County, 24,099 Canyon County, Kootenai, 5771 Bonneville, 3283 Twin Falls, 2727

© 2012 Boise State University30 Maybe not?

© 2012 Boise State University31 The two fastest growing counties: Ada CountyCanyon County Population300,904392,365131,441188,923 Median age White Black Hispanic Mexican Household size Family size Housing units113,408159,47147,96569,409 Seasonal housing4831,

© 2012 Boise State University32 The 5 fastest shrinking counties: 1.Clark County, % 2.Butte County, -8.6 % 3.Camas County, -6.7 % 4.Adams County, -3.7 % 5.Elmore County, -3.2 %

© 2012 Boise State University33 Are you sure?

© 2012 Boise State University34 The bottom 5 shrinking counties: 1.Elmore County, Gooding County, Bingham County, Butte County, Benewah County, -241

© 2012 Boise State University35

© 2012 Boise State University36 Idaho’s top 5 fast growing cities (%): 1.Marsing, 27.1 %

© 2012 Boise State University37 But has it really grown? 2010 Census 2010 Estimate 2011 Estimate 2012 Estimate Net Change Growth Marsing1,0311,3131,3101, %

© 2012 Boise State University38 And according to DOC? 2010 Census 2012 Estimate 2014 DOC Net Change Growth Marsing1,0311,3111, %

© 2012 Boise State University39 Idaho’s top 5 fast growing cities (%): 1.Marsing, 27.1 % 2.Franklin, 11.7 % 3.Meridian, 7.1 % 4.Star, 6.9 % 5.Stanley, 6.5 %

© 2012 Boise State University40 Idaho’s top 5 growth cities: 1.Boise, Meridian, Nampa, Coeur d’Alene, Caldwell, 1431

© 2012 Boise State University41 Idaho’s top 5 shrinking cities? 1.Dubois, % 2.Spencer, % 3.Donnelly, -7.2 % 4.Moore, -4.7 % 5.Fairfield, -4.3 %

© 2012 Boise State University42 Idaho’s real shrinking cities: 1.Mountain Home, McCall, Soda Springs, Weiser, Dubois, -78

© 2012 Boise State University43 General Observations: Idaho is getting somewhat more diverse. In general, rural areas are losing population, urban centers are growing. This includes “economic productive centers” and “resort centers”. Idaho seems to be getting slightly older.

© 2012 Boise State University44 The future: It seems unlikely that Treasure Valley population will grow to 1 million in 2040 Growth might continue to expand to west but consumer preferences are changing and favor “urban”, “smaller”, “bike-able”, “walkable” and “wild amenities” The question is who is moving and why?

© 2012 Boise State University45 In order to have any idea about what the needs in our communities will be in the future we need to use better data! And we need to start paying attention to the details.

© 2012 Boise State University46 Growth only tells part of the story Between 2009 and 2013, 478 people moved from Colorado to Idaho

© 2012 Boise State University47 But 478 hides the dynamics: Exchange between Idaho and Colorado:11,456

© 2012 Boise State University48 States with a big exchange: Arizona Colorado Montana Nevada Oregon Utah Washington

© 2012 Boise State University49 California is a different story:

© 2012 Boise State University50 Mobility and migration ( ):

© 2012 Boise State University51 Change and age: Idaho “loses” young people (<30) to Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming. With the exception of North Dakota, there is a positive influx of people 30 and older from every state. We know nothing about people that are leaving or entering except for their age. Actual numbers are probably higher since this is ITD data.

© 2012 Boise State University52 Imagine in a period of 4 years: In an area with 600,000 original residents, you move out about 100,000. Now you add about 130,000 new residents from other states. In the meanwhile, some of your original residents pass away. Fortunately, some new original residents are born.

© 2012 Boise State University53 “Big data” is readily available, easy to map, easy to use and it is getting easier and easier to create beautiful reports and graphs. But you better check what the limitations are of the data that you are using.

© 2012 Boise State University54 US census:

© 2012 Boise State University55 Census population estimates

© 2012 Boise State University56 Census population estimates

© 2012 Boise State University57 Gemstate Prospector

© 2012 Boise State University58 Conclusions: Be careful with your conclusions Understand the limitations of the data Be weary of aggregated data Mapping of data means good data and accurate maps Check big data with local sources It is about quality not quantity