OThree Chemistry Refinement of the 16-20 Sept ‘00 Modeling Episode: Part I--Status of Current Simulation Central California Ozone Study: Modeling Support.

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Presentation transcript:

OThree Chemistry Refinement of the Sept ‘00 Modeling Episode: Part I--Status of Current Simulation Central California Ozone Study: Modeling Support for Sept ’00 Episode Kickoff Meeting Sacramento, CA T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally 24 October 2003

OThree Chemistry Part I Presentation Overview  Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone Fields  EPA Statistical Performance Summary  Time Series of 1-hr Ozone Spatial Means, Bias, Error  Scatter Plots and Q-Q Distributions  Ozone Time Series at Key SJV Monitors

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 16 Sept ‘03

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 17 Sept ‘03

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 18 Sept ‘03

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 19 Sept ‘03

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 20 Sept ‘03

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone: 16 Sept ‘03

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone: 17 Sept ‘03

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone: 18 Sept ‘03

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone: 19 Sept ‘03

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone: 20 Sept ‘03

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 17 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 18 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 19 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 1-hr Ozone Time Series

OThree Chemistry Diurnal 1-hr Ozone Bias Time Series

OThree Chemistry Diurnal 1-hr Ozone Gross Error Time Series

OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Kern-Johnson Monitor (Med 122)

OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Fresno-9240 Monitor (Med 126)

OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Kern Monitor (Med 113)

OThree Chemistry Scatter and Q-Q Plots on 17 Sept ‘00 Quantile-Quantile PlotDaily Max Scatter Plot

OThree Chemistry Scatter and Q-Q Plots on 18 Sept ‘00 Quantile-Quantile PlotDaily Max Scatter Plot

OThree Chemistry Scatter and Q-Q Plots on 19 Sept ‘00 Quantile-Quantile PlotDaily Max Scatter Plot

OThree Chemistry Daily Performance Statistics for the Sep ’00 Episode

OThree Chemistry Bias in 1-hr Ozone: Sept ‘00 EPA Performance Goal for Bias: < + 15%

OThree Chemistry Gross Error in 1-hr Ozone: Sept ‘00 EPA Performance Goal for Gross Error: < 35%

OThree Chemistry Accuracy of Peak 1-hr Prediction Sept ‘00 EPA Performance Goal for Peak Unpaired Accuracy: < + 20%

OThree Chemistry Initial Questions and Potential Diagnostic Analyses  Duration of spin-up (is 18 hr spin-up sufficient?)  Model sensitivity to ICs/BCs (use of GEOCHEM global model boundary conditions?)  Effects of temperature bias on biogenic/MV emissions and chemistry reactions  Adequacy of vertical diffusivities  Adequacy of diurnal PBL height estimates  Systematic biases in biogenic/MV emissions

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