ESA :DRAGON/ EU :AMFIC Air quality Monitoring and Forecasting In China Ronald van der A, KNMI Bas Mijling, KNMI Hennie Kelder KNMI, TUE DRAGON /AMFIC project OMI science team meeting june

Objectives:  Monitoring air pollution over China  Detection of trends  Improving anthropogenic NO 2 emission estimates  Forecasting air pollution over China  Validation

Timeline  Dragon I  Dragon II  AMFIC

List of partner institutes  KNMI Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Netherlands (PI)  BIRA-IASB Belgium Institute for Space Aeronomy, Belgium  VITO Flemish institute for technological research, Belgium  DUTH Democritus University of Thrace, Greece  NOA National Observatory of Athens, Greece  LAP-AUTH Lab. of Atmospheric Physics, Greece  FMI Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland  IFE University of Bremen, Germany  NSMC National Satellite Meteorological Center, China  IAP-CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China

First Results Dragon Project After rain (August 2005) On a sunny, polluted, day (August 2005) Beijing

Satellite products  GOME / SCIAMACHY / OMI UV/VIS retrievals (KNMI, BIRA-IASB) –Tropospheric O 3 –Tropospheric NO 2 –SO 2 –Formaldehyde (CH 2 O)  SCIAMACHY IR retrievals (IFE) –CH 4, CO and CO 2  ATSR (FMI, IAP-CAS, NSMC) –Aerosols

UV/VIS retrievals NO 2 CH 2 O SO 2 O3O3 Jos de Laat

Methane  SCIAMACHY: IR channel 6 ( nm)  Non-linear DOAS (iterative)  Ratio of CO 2 and CH 4 to derive the column averaged mixing ratio of methane Source: Frankenberg et al., Science 308, 2005

CH 4 Observations vs Model SCIA TM5 Buchwitz et al., ACP, 2006

Carbon monoxide (CO) from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT Buchwitz et al., ACP, 2007

Buchwitz et al., ACPD, 2007 carbontracker.noaa.gov Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT

Aerosol retrieval with ATSR Algorithm to be adapted to the Chinese situation (aerosol type) Courtesy G. de Leeuw, FMI

Tasks of Chinese Partners NSMC National Satellite Meteorological Center  Validation of satellite retrieved NO 2, O 3, SO 2, CO with ground based measurements  Intercomparison of regional models NSMC with Aurora(VITO) and TM5/CHIMERE(KNMI) IAP-CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics  Participation in aerosol retrieval – Algorithm development and application  Validation of satellite retrieved O 3, CO with ground based measurements

Satellite retrieval validation Aerosols AERONET network Brewer spectrometer SO 2 Brewer spectrometers in China and Europe O 3 Ozone sondes Dobson In-situ measurements CO Sun spectrometer NO 2 In-situ measurements Ground-based observations

 ECMWF meteorological input  Chemical-transport model TM 5  Resolution 1x1 degree  Optional: High resolution CHIMERE model 0,25x0.25 degree Air quality forecasting Example Dutch air quality site (CHIMERE model)

Tropospheric NO 2

Higher resolution on tropospheric NO 2 GOMESCIAMACHY OMI and (GOME 2)

Change in NO 2 column densities over China 2003 SCIAMACHY mean tropospheric NO

Based on monthly averaged NO 2 columns from GOME ( ) and SCIAMACHY ( ) measurements. Large increase of NO 2 over industrial and economical areas of eastern China. Trend detection of tropospheric NO 2 over China Van der A et al., J. Geophys. Res., 111, 2006, Richter et al. Mean NO Mean NO Trend Error on trend Beijing Shanghai Chongqing Shenyang Seoul Pearl river delta (Hong Kong)

 Emission inventories based on energy consumption forecasts and statistical data; China lack of data  Large increase in anthropogenic NO x emissions in China;  Inventories to be updated Difference observed – modeled NO 2 columns New anthropogenic NO x emission estimates needed

Inversion procedure  Find the relation between anthropogenic NO x emission and modeled tropospheric NO 2 columns, Martin et al. JGR,2003  Use this relation combined with satellite observations of tropospheric NO 2 to estimate anthropogenic NO x emissions  Run model using the new emission estimates iterate to improve the anthropogenic NO x emission estimates

NO x emission estimates for China in 2003 original anthropogenic NO x emissions (EDGAR 3.2) top-down estimates of anthropogenic NO x emissions

Trend in NO x emissions  Trend more localized than trend in tropospheric NO 2 from satellite  Emissions , exponential growth Trend in yearly Chinese NO x emissions ( )

Global implications Growth in tropospheric O 3 column density due to increasing Chinese NO x emissions ( )  Higher emissions of NOx and hydrocarbons cause increase in tropospheric ozone: 0.4% increase in global tropospheric ozone

Results and outlook  Trend in NO 2 concentrations from satellite observations determined  New estimates of emissions of anthropogenic NO 2 for China  Estimation of contribution of increase in Chinese emissions in global tropospheric O 3 concentration  Including OMI and GOME2 data for higher resolution information and extension of the data sets  Continuation of the trend studies  Validation  Starting the modeling activities  Next Dragon Meeting in two weeks in Aix en Provence (F)

Xie xie Thank you