Tanzania – An Economic and Demographic Analysis By: Megan Hillendahl

-- Profile & Overview -- #1) Demographic and Economic Analysis -- #2) Is Tanzania Improving? -- #3) Obstacles to Change -- Summary ROADMAP OF TALK

Profile of Tanzania Stable, Democratic Government Large Population (42.7 M) Ports for trade Much farmable land Natural Resources: esp. natural gas, gold, iron, and minerals Two Religions (Christian & Muslim) living together peacefully -- SOUNDS PRETTY GOOD!

Location

So what’s the problem? -- Poverty -- Disease -- Heavy dependence on agriculture -- Little industrial development, -- Limited education and low literacy, and -- War refugees -- >500,000 from Congo &. Also Poor infrastructure, -- Dependence on the Global North for capital and improvements, and -- Environmental degradation

Pictures of Problems Orphans Hard labor of daily life Poverty

Pictures of problems War Refugees Poor Infrastructure Heavy dependence on old style agriculture

#1 Demographic and Economic Analysis

Third World --Total Fertility Rate (children per woman) US – 2 children per woman Tanzania – 4 children per woman Due to limited education and little access to family planning resources

Third World -- Population Growth Rate (%) US – about 1% Tanzania – about 2% Due to poor education and limited family planning. Hard to feed, clothe, and house everyone. Many mothers abandon their children, filling the orphanages.

Third World -- Infant Mortality Rate (per thousand births) US -- 6 Tanzania X the US! This is due to lack of good medical care.

Third World -- Net Migration Rate (per thousand) US Tanzania The negative migration rate means more people are moving away than moving in because life is so challenging.

Third World – HIV/AIDS Adult Prevalence Rate US % Tanzania 5.6% (down from 8%) Very high -- 12X the US! This is due to lack of medical care and lack of education about how HIV is transmitted. Malaria is also a problem.

Tanzania is strongly in the third world category in terms of demographics.

Third World -- GDP (Power Parity) US -- $ trillion Tanzania -- $62 billion 0.4% of the US! Due to poor exchange rates with trading partners. This means prices are high and people can’t buy much for their money, which perpetuates poverty.

Third World -- GDP (Per Capita) US $47,400 per person Tanzania $1,500 per person Just 3% of the US! Each person produces a small amount per year and income is low (because of little industry) Tanzania produces only low value goods -- farm goods and unprocessed iron ore and gold.

Third World -- Public Debt US 58.9% Tanzania 23.3% About half the US. The government cannot borrow more money (by selling bonds and treasury notes to people in Tanzania) because the people are poor and can’t afford this investment, and the government can’t afford to pay the interest on more debt. This limits improvements.

Third World -- Inflation Rate US 1.4% Tanzania 7.2% Over 5X the US! The government can’t control the economy effectively. People lose purchasing power because prices rise much faster than wages, supporting more poverty.

Third World -- Oil Consumption (barrels per day) US 18.7 billion Tanzania 34,000 Only 0.2% of the US. This is due to lack of industry (which uses energy) and lack of money to buy more energy. Note that Tanzania produces natural gas to meet much of its energy needs.

Third World – Exports (per year) US -- $1.3 trillion Tanzania $3.8 billion Only 0.2% of US. This is due to lack of industry and low cost exports – farm products and unprocessed iron ore.

Third World – Imports (per year) US $1.9 trillion Tanzania $6.3 billion Only 0.3% of US. This is due to lack of money to buy goods. This has a strong impact on the low standard of living and the low quality of life in Tanzania.

Third World – Debt External US $14 trillion Tanzania $6.3 billion Only 0.05% of US. Due to lack of money to pay interest on loans from other countries. This -- limits improvements and -- keeps the standard of living and the quality of life very low in Tanzania.

Third World – Population Below Poverty Line US 12% Tanzania 36%. 3X as much as US! 1/3 of the population cannot meet its daily needs for food, clothing, and shelter. This poverty is due to a lack of industrial development and limited exports.

Third World – GDP Growth Rate US 2.7% Tanzania 6.48% 2X the US! GDP is low, so modest increases make a big difference. This increase is due to -- good crop yields and -- investments from multinational corporations.

Third World – Industrial Production Growth Rate US 3.3% Tanzania 7%. Over 2X the US. Industrial production is low, so modest increases make an enormous difference. Due to first world nations investing to grow industry and build factories in low cost labor markets.

Tanzania is strongly in the third world category in terms of economics.

#2 – Is Tanzania Improving?

More improving than worsening!

(+) Improving (+) GDP Real Growth Rate (%) GDP is growing. Due to: -- more industry from foreign investment capital, -- increased exports (esp. gold), -- increased internal investment and growth (from banking reforms), -- improved crop yields, and -- improved infrastructure (financed by The World Bank)

(+) Improving (+) GDP Per Capita($) GDP per capita is growing. Same reasons as last slide. This means a higher standard of living.

(+) Improving (+) GDP Purchasing Power Parity ($ billion) Purchasing Power is growing. This means people can buy more for their money, esp. on the world market.

(+) Improving (+) Oil Comsumption (bbl per day) Oil consumption is growing. Due to -- more money to spend from a growing economy and -- more industry from foreign investment.

(+) Improving (+) Exports ($ billion) Exports are growing. Due to -- good crop years -- increased gold exports and higher world gold prices.

(+) Improving (+) Net Migration Rate (%) Negative Migration Rate is decreasing. Fewer people are leaving because of improved living conditions: -- better health care, -- decreased poverty, and -- more income per person.

(+) Improving (+) Total Fertility Rate (children/woman) Fertility rate is decreasing. Women are having fewer children due to better education, & increased access to family planning. Fewer children starve or are abandoned.

(+) Improving (+) Infant Mortality Rate (deaths/1,000) Infant mortality is decreasing. Reduced by 1/3! Due to -- better medical care for babies, and - -- reduced malaria (better distribution of medicine).

(+) Improving (+) HIV/AIDS (%) HIV/AIDS is decreasing. Reduced 25%! Due to: -- AIDS Education from volunteers, and -- better distribution of AIDS drugs.

Reasons for HIV/AIDS Rate Improvements Education by volunteers, like OHS and my cousin, Ally Smith of Cal Poly University. A few people can make an enormous difference!

Overall, things are improving!

Obstacles to Development There are 7 main obstacles to development in Tanzania: 1) Geography and Climate 2) Population and Poverty 3) Economic Dependence 4) Economic Policies 5) Political Instability 6) Education 7) Environmental Problems

Obstacles to Development – 1) Geography and Climate Farmland concentrated in center of country, far from ports. Poor Transportation – 93% of roads are unpaved and are unpassible during the long wet season. High Disease (related to climate) -- malaria, plague, bacterial diarrhea, Hepatitis A, typhoid, rabies, and HIV/AIDS.

Obstacles to Development – 2) Population and Poverty Limited access to education and family planning. One-third of the nation lives below the poverty line. Lack of electricity, safe drinking water, and proper sanitation.

Obstacles to Development – 3) Economic Dependence Tanzania can’t pay for improvements. There is very little industry -- manufacturing or materials processing, so Tanzania -- exports cheap raw materials, and -- imports expensive manufactured goods. Tanzania depends on first world nations for capital for improvements.

Obstacles to Development – 4) Economic Policies One party dominates the government. Thus economic policy never changes in constructive ways.

Obstacles to Development – 5) Political Instability Tanzania has a stable, democratic government. BUT… neighboring Congo and Burundi are at war and sent over half a million refugees to live in Tanzania.

Obstacles to Development – 6) Language and Education Not enough schools and teachers (2-3 hrs to walk, unsafe for children). Poor home study environment and hours of chores at home. Language – Swahili in elementary school, but English in Secondary school. Most people fail to learn English well. SO…STUDENTS DROP OUT OF SCHOOL

Obstacles to Development – 7) Environmental Problems Unfortunately, poorly planned development has degraded -- soil, -- forests, and -- fishing. This limits future development, perpetuating poverty.

1) Tanzania suffers from many demographic and economic problems. 2) There are extreme differences between Tanzania and the first world. 3) There are many obstacles to change. 4) Things are slowly improving. SUMMARY