CENSUS OVERVIEW September 15, 2010 Thomas L. Mesenbourg Deputy Director

2 Discussion Outline Overview of 2010 Census Operations Early Quality Indicators Looking Forward to Fall 2010Data Releases 2020 Census Planning 2011 Budget Prospects

3 The Decennial Census The U.S. Constitution requires that a census be conducted every 10 years. “The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the Meeting of the of the Congress of the United States, and within every Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. (Article I, Section 2)‏ “Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State… (14 th Amendment, Section 2)‏ “That the marshals of the several districts of the United States shall be, and they are hereby authorized and required to cause the number of inhabitants within their respective districts to be taken… (The Census Act of 1790)‏

4 The Importance of Census Data Census data directly ensures that each community receives its fair share of political representation through: Congressional Apportionment Legislative Redistricting Census population data, as well as other related Census Bureau data products (e.g., income data), affect how more than $400 billion per year in federal funding is allocated to local, state and tribal governments.

5 The Decennial Census is the largest peacetime activity the federal government undertakes and it takes approximately twelve years from planning through implementation through dissemination. The census counts every person living in the United States on April 1, 2010—citizens and non-citizens. Estimated 310 million people and 134 million housing units All 50 states and the District of Columbia Puerto Rico Island Areas—Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin Islands The Decennial Census

6 Data Stewardship and Confidentiality By law, the Census is a mandatory activity—Title 13, U.S.C.—and the Census Bureau takes extraordinary measures to protect the confidentiality of personal information. Data are collected only for statistical purposes and it is against the law to disclose any data that identifies a person. Only sworn individuals have access to confidential information. Every Census Bureau employee has taken an oath to protect the information and is subject to a jail term, a fine, or both if he or she discloses any information that could identify an individual. Individual responses are protected and information cannot be used against a person by any government agency or court. These protections are not limited by any other laws, including the Patriot Act.

7 Our Challenge Was to Count Everyone – Just Once! Sheer size challenges Expect to mail questionnaires to over 134 million housing units 279,000 group quarters 310 million people 3.5 million square miles of land area 8 million census blocks Compressed time challenges Language challenges Enumeration challenge Coverage challenges External challenges

8 Field Infrastructure For 2010 Census 12 Regional Census Centers 494 Local Census Offices 7 Offices in Puerto Rico Recruited 3.8 million applicants Hired 1.4 million temporary employees— 600,000 at the peak

9 Basic Components of the 2010 Census ADDRESS LIST DEVELOPMENT 1. Local Update of Census Addresses 2 Address Canvassing 3. Group Quarters Validation 4. Update/Leave ENUMERATION OPERATIONS 1. Enumeration of Transitory Locations 2. Group Quarters Advance Visits 3. Group Quarters Enumeration ENUMERATION OPERATIONS 1. Mailout/Mailback 2. Update Enumeration 3. NonResponse Followup & Reinterview 4. Vacant Delete Check VERIFICATION and COVERAGE OPERATIONS 1.Coverage Followup (done from Call Centers)‏ 2. Quality Control and Field Verification 3. Census Coverage Measurement

10 Use of handheld computers for nationwide address canvassing Update and verify group quarters prior to the census Short-form only census—10 questions…10 minutes Bi-lingual English/Spanish questionnaires mailed to 13 million households Replacement questionnaires mailed to low and medium response areas Customization of census operations Realtime analysis of attitudes and response used in decisions 2010 Census: Operational Changes

11 A Short Request Name Gender Age Ethnicity Race Other residence Own/Rent Telephone no.

12 Customization of 2010 Census Operations Tract Action Plan - options for each Local Census Office (LCO) to use tailored to tracts with high hard-to-count scores Specific activities within 3 main areas: Recruiting Partnership Data Collection/Enumeration “All Census is Local”

Census Key Dates Jan 17 – advertising launch Feb – advance letters mailed Mar – questionnaire mailed Mar – reminder postcard mailed April 1 – CENSUS DAY April 1-10 – replacement forms May 1-July 10 – non-response follow-up Dec 31 – deliver population info to President Apr 2011 – delivery of complete delivery of info to states

14 Integrated Communications Program Goals Increase Mail Response Improve Accuracy and Reduce Differential Undercount Improve Cooperation with Enumerators Paid Media: 3 Phases Awareness (January-February)‏ Motivation (March-April)‏ Non-Response Follow-Up (May-June)‏ Partnership: engage powerful advocates for the Census Work together throughout the census Reach the hard-to-count

15 Communications Campaign Structure

16 Communications Campaign Phases

17 How Partners Supported the Census Established Complete Count Committees Provided and distributed promotional materials for use by partner organizations Identified locations for Be Counted and Questionnaire Assistance sites Translated materials Provided a strong census presence at local and national events Led “March to the Mailbox” April 10

Census Language Program Partnership Staff Linguistic Capabilities (101) ‏ Language Assistance Guides (59) ‏ Promotional Materials, Paid Media (TV, Radio, Print, OOH, and/or Web) (28) ‏ As of June 22, 2009 Albanian. Amharic. American Sign Language. Anishinaabemowin. Arabic. Aramaic. Armenian. Bahasa Melayu. Bengali. Bicol. Bosnian. Bube Burmese. Caddo. Cebuano. Chaldean. Chinese-Cantonese. Chinese-Chaochowese. Chinese-Fukienese. Chinese-Mandarin. Chinese-Shanghaiese Chinese-Simplified. Chinese-Traditional. Choctaw. Coushatta/Koasati. Creole. Dakota. Dutch. English. Fang. Farsi. Flemish. French. French Creole German. Greek. Gujarati. Haitian Creole. Hawaiian. Hebrew. Hindi. Hmong. Hokkien. Hungarian. Igbo. Indonesian. Irish Gaelic. Italian. Japanese Keres. Khmer. Kickapoo. Korean. Lokata. Laotian. Lithuanian. Lummi. Maliseet. Marshallese. Mayan-Yucatec. Micmac. Mixteca. Mohawk. Muskogee. Navajo. Nez Perce. Oneida. Oriya. Oromo. Pawnee. Polish. Portuguese. Portuguese-Brazilian. Portuguese Creole. Punjabi. Purepecha. Russian Sahaptin. Salish. Samoan. Sinhalese. Slovak. Somali. Spanish. Swahili. Tagalog. Taiwanese. Tamil. Taosanese. Teochew. Thai. Tigrinya. Tongan Ukrainian. Urdu. Vietnamese. Wikang Filopino. Wolof. Yiddish. Yoruba Albanian. Amharic. Arabic. Armenian. Bengali. Bulgarian. Burmese. Cebuano. Chamorro. Chinese- Simplified. Chinese-Traditional. Chuukese. Croatian. Czech. Dari. Dinka. Dutch. Farsi. French. German Greek. Gujarati. Haitian Creole. Hebrew. Hindi. Hmong. Hungarian. Ilocano. Italian. Japanese. Khmer Korean. Laotian. Lithuanian. Malayalam. Marshallese. Navajo. Nepali. Polish. Portuguese. Punjabi Romanian. Russian. Samoan. Serbian. Somali. Spanish. Swahili. Tagalog. Tamil. Telugu. Thai. Tigrinya Tongan. Turkish. Ukrainian. Urdu. Vietnamese. Yiddish Arabic. Armenian. Bengali. Chinese-Mandarin. Chinese-Cantonese English. Farsi. French. German. Greek. Haitian Creole. Hindi. Hmong Italian. Japanese. Khmer. Korean. Laotian. Polish. Portuguese Russian Spanish. Thai. Tagalog. Ukrainian. Urdu. Vietnamese. Yiddish English. Chinese-Simplified Korean. Russian. Spanish Vietnamese Census Forms (6) ‏ 97.8%* 99.4%* 99.8%* 99.7%* * Percent of all adults either in their native tongue, or in English for those who are bilingual

19 Real Time Evaluation Prior to Mailout/Mailback Daily RDD survey asking about 2010 Census Analysts monitoring data Asking questions about whether key predictors of form completion are progressing positively across all groups

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21 How likely are you to participate in the 2010 Census? – By Age Group

22 Percentage “Definitely Will” Return Form by Race/Ethnicity by Day

23 Early Quality Indicators on Soundness of Process of Data Collection FeatureEvaluative Indicator Relative to 2000 Short-form only designHigher participation rates than long form (overall 72% in 2010 vs. combined short-long 69% in 2000) Bilingual questionnaire to 13 million households with >20% Spanish-speakers Increased participation rate by about 2 percentage points Replacement form sent to 40 million households, targeting hard to enumerate Increased participation in hard to enumerate areas 23

24 Blanket replacement mailing complete

25 Early Quality Indicators on Soundness of Process of Data Collection FeatureEvaluative Indicator Relative to 2000 Verification of composition for households with dynamic membership Recontact with more households (7.5 million versus 2.5 million) Assignment to enumeratorsFewer miles per interview Nonresponse followup visiting rules the sameHigher percentage of population counts in households from proxy respondents Percentage of occupied units without population counts after nonresponse followup Lower in 2010; 1.14% (2010) vs 1.82% (2000) 25

26 Early Quality Indicartors on Soundness of Process of Data Collection FeatureEvaluative Indicator Relative to 2000 Vacant housing units14.3 million in 2010 vs. 9.9 million in 2000; fits expected results of mortgage crisis Quality control reinterviewsEssentially all enumerators subject to reinterviews (vs. 75% in 2000); smaller percentage of enumerators failing to meet quality standards Meeting deadlines on data collectionAll 11 operations since mid-2009 on schedule and significantly under budget 26

27 Discussion Outline Overview of 2010 Census Operations Early Quality Indicators Looking Forward to Fall 2010Data Releases 2020 Census Planning 2011 Budget Prospects

28 Fall 2010 Data Releases DateRelease Time Period Covered Smallest Geographical Level Based on 2010 Census Sept. 28, 2010ACS 2009 Estimates1-year period, 2009Places of 65,000 or more NO Dec. 6, Demographic Analysis 2010NationalNO Dec. 20, 2010ACS year period, Census tractsNO Before Dec. 31, CensusApril 1, 2010StatesYES

29 Demographic Analysis Alternative way of measuring the population Vital registration system supplies births, deaths Emigration and immigration from records and diverse other sources Provides counts at national level only Provides separate estimates by: Single years of age, males & females, and 2 Race groups (Black and Non Black) Data not available at levels that would be useful for reapportionment or redistricting Improved set of DA estimates later in 2011, after comparison to race, age, and gender data from 2010 Census on Vital registration system supplies births, deaths Emigration and immigration from records and diverse other sources Provides counts at national level only Provides separate estimates by: Single years of age Males and females Two race groups (Black and nonblack) Data not available at levels that would be useful for reapportionment or redistricting egistration system supplies births, deaAlternative way of measuring the population Vital reAlternative way of measuring the population Vital registration system supplies births, deaths Emigration and immigration from records and diverse other sources Provides counts at national level only Provides separate estimates by: Single years of age Males and females Two race groups (Black and nonblack) Data not available at levels that would be useful for reapportionment or redistricting gistration system supplies births, deaths Emigration and immigration from records and diverse other sources Provides counts at national level only Provides separate estimates by: Single years of age Males and females Two race groups (Black and nonblack) Data not available at levels that would be useful for reapportionment or redistricting ths Emigration and immigration from records and diverse other sources Provides counts at national level only Provides separate estimates by: Single years of age Males and females Two race groups (Black and nonblack) Data not available at levels that would be useful for reapportionment or redistricting

30 The Issue and The Challenge Releasing multiple measures is common (Ex. Income and Poverty estimates from CPS and ACS, plus alternative measures of poverty; Health Insurance estimates from CPS, ACS and SAHIE; etc.) Task: Help public understand what each measure is, its purpose and its inherent weaknesses Transparency gives credibility The fact this is both a decennial year and the first time for release of 5-year ACS data adds confusion and demands proactive communication

31 Communications Strategy Outside of Releases Full-scale blitz of all stakeholders and users Web-based treatment on home page s to partners/stakeholders with attachments Over 60% of partners have s ACS lists, CPS lists, HHES lists, etc Mid-September, Mid-October, Mid-November, Mid-December Listserv entries for all professional associations Webinars throughout the Fall National League of Cities National Conference of Mayors National Association of Counties University lectures 2010 Census Operational Press Briefings in September, October, November

32 Discussion Outline Overview of 2010 Census Operations Early Quality Indicators Looking Forward to Fall 2010Data Releases 2020 Census Planning 2011 Budget Prospects

33 Looking Forward: 2020 Census Restructured planning process Refocused targets Restructured organization

34 Key Research and Development Strategies Planning Feature Testing cyclesFew, very large testsMany, small tests Test VehiclesOne-time data collection infrastructuresUse American Community Survey infrastructure Scope of testsDiverse suggestions for improvements on existing tools Focus on answering key questions necessary to choose best option Modes of data collectionPaper and face-to-face (internet dropped mid-decade) Multiple modes (internet, paper, phone, face to face, administrative records), with tailoring to subgroups Technical infrastructureSingle purpose, one-use softwareDevelop 2020 software and use in ACS production prior to 2020

35 Key Organization Facilitators of Research and Development Strategy Organizational focus on strong program integration and risk management component Integration of IT enterprise perspective into decennial software planning Integration of CFO budget oversight into the new directorate activities Integration of re-established Research Directorate input into research and development activities

36 Increasing Cost per Case in Decennial Census 36 Cost per Housing Unit (constant 2010 dollars) Decennial Census Year Source: President’s FY 2011 Budget request

37 Refocused Targets Cost reduction must be a goal of research and development activities Early decade activities focus on exploiting administrative record use Reduce costs of planning activities through leveraging existing Census Bureau infrastructure

38 Discussion Outline Overview of 2010 Census Operations Early Quality Indicators Looking Forward to Fall 2010Data Releases 2020 Census Planning 2011 Budget Prospects

39 The U.S. Census Bureau FY 2011 Budget Request The FY 2011 request for discretionary budget authority for the Census Bureau is $1.3 billion. This is a decrease of $6.0 billion from the FY 2010 enacted budget of $7.2 billion. The decrease represents the completion of the major 2010 Census field operations in FY Included in the FY 2011 request are $88.5 million in new program investments.

40 The U.S. Census Bureau FY 2011 Budget Request (Budget Authority 000’s)

41 Changes for FY 2011 Expanding the American Community Survey (ACS) ($44.2 million) Improving the Geographic Support System ($26.3 million) Enhancing the Statistical System’s Ability to Use Administrative Records ($9.0 million) Creating a Supplemental Poverty Measure ($5.0 million)

42 Expanding the American Community Survey $44.2 million increase. This investment to expand the ACS sample size (to 3.5 million households) will increase the reliability of ACS data, especially for small and medium-sized areas (areas with 20,000 population or less). A larger sample results in improved reliability of estimates, especially for small communities, rural areas, and population groups More reliable data lead to more precise estimates, improved ability to compare areas both within states and across states, and enhanced capacity to assess change over time. This is especially important for rural and mid-size communities because they lack the resources to collect critical data for planning and investment.

43 Improving the Geographic Support System $26.3 million increase The Geographic Support program is the underpinning for the surveys and statistics that are used by public and private organizations to track economic and demographic change and to support better decision-making. An enhanced Geographic Support System will supply the modern geospatial data that will improve the geographical accuracy of Census Bureau data. Improves address coverage, continual updating of road and other spatial data, and enhanced quality measures of Census Bureau geographic programs. It also strengthens partnerships with key local participants for census and survey data collection. These efforts will provide an updated address list throughout the decade, potentially allowing the Census Bureau to conduct a targeted address canvassing operation, resulting in a net savings to the Government over the life cycle.

44 Enhancing the Statistical System’s Ability to Use Administrative Records $9.0 million increase The use of administrative records represents an opportunity for innovation in survey design that would result in reduced reporting burden by households or businesses and reduced survey costs. However, more research needs to be done. This investment will allow the Census Bureau to research the feasibility of increasing the use of administrative records. It will allow the Census Bureau to expand its administrative records infrastructure and conduct two pilot projects. These projects are designed to address existing barriers to more complete use of administrative data. A primary goal is to determine whether use of these records can reduce the cost of future Decennial Censuses.

45 Creating a Supplemental Poverty Measure $5.0 million increase This measure will provide analysts and policymakers a more comprehensive understanding of the scope and depth of economic deprivation among American families and of the effects of policies and programs on economic well-being. This new measure will use the most recently-available data to create an alternative poverty threshold and a broader measure of resources available to American families. This supplemental measure will not replace the official poverty measure nor is it designed to be used in determining program eligibility for individuals. Measure will first be published in Fall Bureau of Labor Statistics has complementary increase.

46 Questions?