Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts Jack Sullivan Wisconsin DNR WICCI Update U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service January 15, 2010 Photo: G Schuurman, WDNR

Evolution of WICCI Realization that climate change is inevitable Need to identify and adapt to impacts Need for collaboration Wisconsin Idea Interactions between UW, DNR, and the Legislature during 2007 DNR and Nelson Institute joined forces in the summer of 2007 WICCI launched September 2007 Natural Resources Board briefed on climate change, April 22, 2008

Mitigation: Governor’s Task Force on Global Warming addressed ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Acting on Climate Change in Wisconsin Adaptation: Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) addresses ways to adapt to consequences of climate change

Mitigate Adapt = Very little = Minor = Major Change in rate of GHG emissions* Modified from: IPCC 2007 *Scenarios from IPCC ºF Mitigation vs. Adaptation

Evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities Develop and recommend adaptation strategies Objectives: Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions WICCI’s Goals and Organizational Structure

Identify critical or emerging scientific questions related to the mission of WICCI Organize and coordinate Working Groups Provide leadership on climate change impact issues in Wisconsin Science Council Members represent an array of disciplines and expertise within the UW System, the WDNR and other state and federal agencies, universities and institutions

Identify potential risks and vulnerabilities pertinent to working group topic area or geographic region Summarize existing information on climate change impacts Identify data and research needed to assess future impacts Recommend adaptation strategies Working Groups Objectives:

Current Working Groups

Working Group Workshops 1 st workshop: January 12, nd workshop: September 21, 2009 Photos: S Pomplun

Advisory Committee Stakeholder representatives from across Wisconsin Identify information needs for planning and decision making 1 st Advisory Committee Meeting February 2, 2009 Photo: K Gibbons Interact with Science Council & give direction to Working Groups Bring information on WICCI back to colleagues, constituents and customers 2 nd Advisory Committee Meeting September 14, 2009

Wisconsin Public Service Commission Milwaukee Office of Environmental Sustainability Assembly Committee on Natural Resources Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission Wisconsin Citizen-Based Monitoring Network Wisconsin Commissioner of Insurance Wisconsin Conservation Congress SC Johnson Extension Basin Educators 1000 Friends of Wisconsin Second Look Holsteins We Energies Grow North Regional Economic Development Corporation, Inc. New North, Inc. Alliant Energy Advisory Committee Membership Professional Dairy Producers of Wisconsin Wisconsin Wildlife Federation Senate Committee on Environment & Natural Resources Greater Milwaukee Committee Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade & Consumer Protection Clean Wisconsin Wisconsin Council on Forestry Wisconsin Association for Floodplain, Stormwater & Coastal Management Madison & Dane County Public Health Dept. Wisconsin Towns Association Wisconsin Dept. of Transportation Wisconsin Paper Council League of Wisconsin Municipalities Natural Areas Preservation Council American Birkebeiner Ski Foundation

Collaborators Wisconsin Wildlife Federation Trout Unlimited USGS-Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center USGS-Wisconsin Water Science Center USGS-Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit USGS-National Wildlife Health Center/Wildlife Disease Information Node US Fish & Wildlife Service Great Lakes Indian Fish & Wildlife Commission Wisconsin Conservation Congress The Nature Conservancy Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District City of Milwaukee Wisconsin Sea Grant Program Wis. Geological & Natural History Survey US Forest Service USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade & Consumer Protection Great Lakes Water Institute Wisconsin Department of Transportation Southeastern Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission City of Racine Dane County Land Conservation Division UW-Cooperative Extension Columbia County Land & Water Conservation Wisconsin Council on Forestry Wis. Assn. for Floodplain, Stormwater & Coastal Management Wisconsin Department of Transportation Natural Areas Preservation Council Wisconsin Commissioner of Insurance

Outreach & Operations Support and coordination provided by the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, UW-Madison Outreach efforts include: Newly formed Outreach Advisory Committee WICCI Website Spring ‘09 UW seminar series Fall ‘09 UW forum series Newsletters

WICCI Climate Science The University of Wisconsin - Madison Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research (CCR) and the Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE)

Source: Map from Serbin and Kucharik (2009); photos from C. Kucharik, UW-Madison Photo credit: NOAA Circa 1930 Weather Station Network for Wisconsin (Daily temperature and precipitation data since 1950)

Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant to climate impacts in Wisconsin Global Climate Model gridDownscaled (8x8 km grid) Climate Modeling: Used 14 Global Climate Models (GCM’s) having daily data in IPCC 2007 assessment Downscaling verified using same Wisconsin weather station data analyzed for historical climate trends Provides a range of probable climate changes (probability distribution) essential for impact assessments Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison IPCC 2007

Annual Temperature Change Wisconsin will warm by 4 – 9 °F by mid-21 st Century Probability Distribution of 14 Global Climate Model Projections Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature (°F) from 1980 to 2055 Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison 90% chance of exceeding this temperature 10% chance of exceeding this temperature 50% probability temperature (plotted on maps)

Projected Change in Precipitation from 1980 to 2055 Change in Annual Average (inches) Probability Distributions of 14 Climate Model Projections by Month Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison Models predict winter and early spring will be wetter Models uncertain about amount of summer rainfall

Adaptation Strategies Photo: WDNR Grow trees adapted to future climate Photo: WDNR Spruce grouse Brook Trout Photo: M Mitro, WDNR American Marten Photo: K Martin, WDNR Lake Trout Plant trees to shade trout streams Photo: M Mitro, WDNR

WICCI’S First Adaptive Assessment Report Fall 2010 Synthesis of climate impact assessments of WICCI Working Groups Recommendations on adaptation strategies for decision makers

Expanding Outreach Efforts Website Newsletters Outreach Committee initiatives Collaboration beyond Wisconsin’s borders Landscape Conservation Cooperatives USGS Climate Change Response Centers Subsequent Adaptive Assessments Future Activities

For more information: 40 Science Hall 550 N. Park Street Madison, WI Phone: (608)

WICCI Wildlife WG Members Leaders & Facilitators: Karl Martin, Mike Meyer, Olivia LeDee, and Karin Fassnacht Members: Bill Vander ZouwenChris RibicJulie Langenberg Dave SampleJill UtrupLouise Clemency Rebecca SchroederScott HullMike Samuel Andy PauliosAnna PidgeonOwen Boyle David MacFarlandDavid MladenoffTara Bergeson Eric AndersonGregor SchuurmanMatthew Mitro Deahn Donner WrightJoel TrickRicky Lien Matt St. PierreSara GagnéBill Karasov Sara HotchkissScott CravenKevin Kenow Tim Van DeelenVolker RadeloffJerry Bartelt

WICCI Wildlife Working Group Core Team Outside groups Science Council Management Agencies Other working groups