SPECIALLY FOR THE IX INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH AND PRACTICE CONFERENCE “RESEARCHES, DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGIES IN PRODUCTION OPERATION” IMPORT SUBSTITUTION OF HIGH-TECH ENGINEERING PRODUCTION: CONDITIONS OF COMPOSITION INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DIVERSIFICATION Kirill Lebedev, IFS April, 21-23, 2010 St. Petersburg

3 COMPETITIVE HIGH-TECH SECTOR OF MACHINE-BUILDING COMPLEX HIGH-TECH SECTOR OF MACHINE-BUILDING COMPLEX MIC (military industrial complex) Atomic sector of industry Power engineering industry Civil airplane industry КС РКП Auto industry Advanced frontline aircraft system (V generation fighter aircraft) Water-cooled power reactor 1500 Mobile Power Plant Launch vehicle Angara High power gas turbine plant, low-speed target turbines SSJ Аn-148 Toyota, Fiat, VEGA

FROM EXPORT EXPANSION TO IMPORT SUBSTITUTION EXPORT EXPANSION (development bank) (customs action, tax, fiscal measures) Adjustment of counterparts and formation of production's credibility FOREIGN MARKETS EXPANSIONDOMESTIC MARKET EXPANSION Adjustment of counterparts and formation of production's credibility 4

POTENTIAL OF EXPORT EXPANSION OF HIGH-TECH ENGINEERING PRODUCTION 5

6 POTENTIAL OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN AUTO INDUSTRY

POTENTIAL OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN AIRPLANE INDUSTRY 7

POTENTIAL OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN POWER ENGINEERING INDUSTRY 8

POTENTIAL DYNAMICS OF GDP UNDER EXPORT EXPANSION 9

POTENTIAL DYNAMICS OF GDP UNDER EXPORT EXPANSION AND IMPORT SUBSTITUTION 10

POTENTIAL INCREASE OF COMPLEXES SHARE IN THE STRUCTURE OF GROSS VALUE ADDED IN INDUSTRY 11 Investee complexes Energy industryMetallurgy Chemistry and Petrochemistry Mechanical engineering EXPORT EXPANSION Energy industry 100,50100,16100,12 Metallurgy 100,02100,75100,04 100,20 Chemistry and Petrochemistry 100,01 100,80 100,04 Mechanical engineering 100,01100,02 100,40 Investee complexes Energy industryMetallurgy Chemistry and Petrochemistry Mechanical engineering EXPORT EXPANSION AND IMPORT SUBSTITUTION Energy industry 100,50102,31100,63 101,59 Metallurgy 100,02107,46100,21 102,60 Chemistry and Petrochemistry 100,01100,12104,14 100,53 Mechanical engineering 100,01105,40102,29 114,22

POTENTIAL VOLUME OF EXTRA TAX LIABILITIES IN FEDERAL BUDGET 12

POTENTIAL EXTRA JOB VACANCIES 13

14 RESUME AND RESULTS The evaluation of competitive ability demonstrated a variety of branches – the future basis of the technological progress, that can be used as the base for the export expansion and import substitution. The most effective complex (beyond MCK) is Metallurgy, and not ХиН, as appeared earlier. Due to the evaluation and achieved results of modeling, multiplicative character of export expansion and import substitution was perceived. RECTIFICATION OF “TECHNOLOGIC FAILING” IS POSSIBLE… BUT IN MEDIUM-DATED PERSPECTIVE.

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