NMFS CLIMATE SCIENCE STRATEGY APRIL 4, 2016 Jeffrey Polovina, PhD and Pacific Islands Region Drafting Team PIFSC

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2 National Climate Assessment National Climate Assessment

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3 Temperature increasing Sea level rising Ocean acidification Wind patterns changing Precipitation changing Surface chlorophyll declining And more…. Temperature increasing Sea level rising Ocean acidification Wind patterns changing Precipitation changing Surface chlorophyll declining And more…. Long-Term Changes in Part of Land-Atmosphere-Ocean System

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4 OCEAN TEMPERATURE present to ºF SEA LEVEL present to inches Expanding low chlorophyll region (dark shading) OCEAN ACIDIFICATION present to % more corrosive PHYTOPLANKTON present to % Projected Changes in Oceanography

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5 Coral reefs and fishes decline by 40% Projected Changes in Marine Resources by 2100 Fishery yields of pelagic fishes decline by 15-50% Loss of terrestrial habitat used by protected species. Eastward and northward expansion in distribution of pelagic fishes.

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6 Implications for Fishing Communities Food security issues at some islands as coral reef fishes decline Migration of populations from low lying islands and atolls as sea levels rise and freshwater declines Shift in distributions of tunas will create winners and losers among islands Food security issues at some islands as coral reef fishes decline Migration of populations from low lying islands and atolls as sea levels rise and freshwater declines Shift in distributions of tunas will create winners and losers among islands

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8 Identify appropriate climate informed reference points Objective 1 Identify robust management strategies Objective 2 Implement adaptive decision processes that respond to changing climate conditions Objective 3 NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy - Objectives

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9 Identity likely future state for planning Objective 4 Identity mechanisms of climate effect to improve projections and responses Objective 5 Track trends and provide early warnings of change Objective 6 Strengthen the science infrastructure Objective 7 NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy - Objectives

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10 August 2015: Established the Drafting Team of 16 staff from Science Center, PIRO, and Council. The 1 st draft was completed February Further review and input is ongoing. Final version is due October 1, The RAP: Reviews ongoing climate work; identifies priorities for climate information; and sets out a plan for future work over next 5 years. Development of Regional Action Plan for PIR

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11 DRAFTING TEAM Jeffrey Polovina 1 and Kurt Dreflak 2 (Chairs), Jason Baker 1, Scott Bloom 2, Samantha Brooke 2, Valerie Chan 2, Sarah Ellgen 2, Dawn Golden 2, Justin Hospital 1, Kyle Van Houtan 1, Steve Kolinski 2, Beth Lumsden 1, Kim Maison 2, Tom Oliver 1, Sylvia Spalding 3, Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats 1 1 Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center 2 Pacific Islands Regional Office 3 Western Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Council DRAFTING TEAM Jeffrey Polovina 1 and Kurt Dreflak 2 (Chairs), Jason Baker 1, Scott Bloom 2, Samantha Brooke 2, Valerie Chan 2, Sarah Ellgen 2, Dawn Golden 2, Justin Hospital 1, Kyle Van Houtan 1, Steve Kolinski 2, Beth Lumsden 1, Kim Maison 2, Tom Oliver 1, Sylvia Spalding 3, Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats 1 1 Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center 2 Pacific Islands Regional Office 3 Western Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Council Pacific Islands Region Climate Science Strategy Regional Action Plan

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12 Current Strengths - Ongoing long term monitoring (fishery observer and logbooks, coral reef ecosystem, monk seals, sea turtles) - Using outputs from Earth System Models to project climate impacts to coral reefs and pelagic ecosystem and fishery - Proactive in incorporating climate change considerations in many of its regulatory actions and management plans

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13 Pearl and Hermes monk sea beach count and PDO Baker et al Pacific-Wide Sites: Coral Reef Ecosystem Division Examples―Spatial and Temporal Ecosystem Monitoring

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14 Annual maximum coral reef thermal stress for West Hawaii from January 1985 – September REEF FISH INDICATORS (A) Total Fish Abundance, (B) Fish Biomass, (C) Mean Fish Length, and (D) Species Richness. Indicators are split by North (green) and South (blue) regions of West Hawaii. Error bars represent +/-1 standard error. DATA SOURCE: DAR’s West Hawaii Aquarium Project. West Hawaii Ecosystem Status & Trends Report 2016 Gove et al. 2016

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15 1 output from climate model 1 output from climate model Climate scenarios Ocean scenarios Ecosystem scenarios Fishing scenarios Management scenarios Informed options Climate scenarios Ocean scenarios Ecosystem scenarios Fishing scenarios Management scenarios Informed options 3 to project changes in future catch and effort targets 3 to project changes in future catch and effort targets 2 drive fisheries model to predict future catches 2 drive fisheries model to predict future catches Projecting Future Conditions and Management Strategies of Future Yields

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16 Using SST output from climate models to drive coral reef bleaching models to project year when corals start bleaching annually. Climate scenarios Ocean scenarios Ecosystem scenarios Climate scenarios Ocean scenarios Ecosystem scenarios Projecting Future Coral Reef Bleaching

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17 Developing Satellite-Based Climate Indicators

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18 Current Gaps - Identification and implementation of management strategies that are robust under climate change - Identification of climate-informed reference points for species in managed fisheries - Need to increase understanding of many of the processes or mechanisms linking climate change to subtropical ecosystems and human communities - Identification and implementation of management strategies that are robust under climate change - Identification of climate-informed reference points for species in managed fisheries - Need to increase understanding of many of the processes or mechanisms linking climate change to subtropical ecosystems and human communities

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19 Priorities for Incorporating Climate Information -Advice for climate-informed fisheries management of deepwater bottomfishes, coral reef fishes, striped marlin, bigeye tuna, yellowfin tuna and swordfish -Assessments of climate impacts on habitats and populations of endangered and threatened species -Assessments of impacts to coastal habitats, especially for the low-lying islands found throughout the region -Advice for climate-informed fisheries management of deepwater bottomfishes, coral reef fishes, striped marlin, bigeye tuna, yellowfin tuna and swordfish -Assessments of climate impacts on habitats and populations of endangered and threatened species -Assessments of impacts to coastal habitats, especially for the low-lying islands found throughout the region

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20 Key Actions Over Next Five Years – Level Funding -Maintain and enhance existing surveys -Update surveys of fishing community economics, vulnerability and resilience -Conduct PI Region species climate vulnerability study -Develop and incorporate climate indicators and information into Council’s Annual Reports -Incorporate climate information into billfish and bottomfish stock assessments and coral reef fish annual catch limits -Incorporate climate change information into designations of protected species critical habitat, recovery planning, and NEPA and ESA analyses

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21 Key Actions Over Next Five Years – New Funding -Downscale output of climate models to project impacts at reef and island scales -Develop spatial habitat and ecosystem models to project climate impacts -Strengthen survey and monitoring programs and analyses of these data to specifically address climate impacts -Expand use of climate information in stock assessments and ACLs -Downscale output of climate models to project impacts at reef and island scales -Develop spatial habitat and ecosystem models to project climate impacts -Strengthen survey and monitoring programs and analyses of these data to specifically address climate impacts -Expand use of climate information in stock assessments and ACLs

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22 Key Actions Over Next Five Years – New Funding (cont) -Improve economic, habitat, fisheries, and ecosystem models to more fully address climate impacts -Conduct laboratory experiments to evaluate mechanistic linkages between environmental drivers, genetics, and coral reef physiological responses -Undertake analyses to identify robust management and harvest strategies under climate change scenarios -Improve economic, habitat, fisheries, and ecosystem models to more fully address climate impacts -Conduct laboratory experiments to evaluate mechanistic linkages between environmental drivers, genetics, and coral reef physiological responses -Undertake analyses to identify robust management and harvest strategies under climate change scenarios

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page Timeline: RAP Development JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC FINAL DRAFTING AND DUE TO SUBMIT OCT 1 DRAFT DUE JUL 29 PARTNERS STAKE / HOLDERS REVIEW & COMMENTS APR 29 INTERNAL REVIEW AND COMMENT AUG 31 ROLL OUT NOV / DEC INTERNAL REVIEW & COMMENT / FINALIZE FOR EXTERNAL REVIEW MAR 30 RAP 1ST DRAFT FEB 5