Presented by: David Cox, CFA, CMT, FCSI, FMA, BMath Portfolio Manager May 2, 2013 Cutten Fields, Guelph, ON How To Sell Generating Better Investment Results

2 How I Got Here  Frustrated to watch big gains disappear  Hindsight is 20/20  Was missing a disciplined exit/sell plan

3 Who Am I?  Bachelor of Mathematics – University of Waterloo  My family recently relocated to Guelph  One of 206 dual holders, globally, of both the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designations  Passionate about the investment markets, skiing, golfing, mountain biking and poker

4 My Beliefs  Buy & Hold DOES NOT work  Stocks/markets/assets go through bullish (rising) periods, which are followed by bearish (falling) periods – extract profits regularly  Holding equities in a bear market/downtrend is akin to financial suicide  Small losses are preferred to big losses

5 Why We’re Here Source: Metastock, Reuters RESEARCH IN MOTION (BB-T, BBRY-US) ( ) WHERE DID MY PROFITS GO?

6 Buying Is Easy  Buying stocks is easy – selling stocks determines if you make money or LOSE money  Success is not dependent on what stock/fund/ETF you buy

7 Selling Techniques  Candlesticks  Moving averages/support/resistance  Relative Strength Comparison  Trailing stops  Bearish Divergence

8 Intro to Candlesticks

9 Key Sell Candlesticks BEARISH ENGULFING SHOOTING STAR HANGING MAN

10 Bearish Engulfing Source: Metastock, Reuters LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS-US) ( ) +100% RALLY -57% CRASH

11 Gravestone Doji Source: Metastock, Reuters LAS VEGAS SANDS 2010 GRAVESTONE DOJI

12 Hanging Man Source: Metastock, Reuters POTASH CORP (POT-T) 2008 PEAK

13 Relative Comparison Source: Metastock, Reuters CDN STOCKS VS BONDS

14 Relative Comparison Source: Metastock, Reuters WHO CAN GUESS WHAT THIS IS?

15 Relative Comparison Source: Metastock, Reuters GLOBAL ENERGY STOCKS VS WORLD STOCKS

16 Fallen Angels  Potash Corp (-74%)  Research In Motion/Blackberry (-96%)  Penn West (-75%)  Suncor (-74%)  Barrick Gold (-68%)  Netflix (-83%)  Green Mountain Coffee (-85%)  Apple (-45%)  Citibank (-98%) Source: Thompson One % Decline from Highest Price (since ’08) to Lowest Low (2013)

17 Uptrend Source: Metastock, Reuters TELUS (T-T) ( ) +133% RALLY

18 Downtrend Source: Metastock, Reuters TELUS ( ) -56% CRASH

19 Moving Averages Source: Metastock, Reuters 20-Day Exponential Moving Average (Red) 40-Day Exponential Moving Average (Blue) If 20<40, SELL AND/OR STOP BUYING ISHARES HOME CONTRUCTION (ITB-US)

20 Trailing Stops Source: Metastock, Reuters MARATHON PETROLEUM (MPC-US) (2013) 8% TRAILING STOP LOSS

21 Anatomy of a Peak Source: Metastock, Reuters MARATHON PETROLEUM (MPC-US) 20-Day Exp Moving Average (Red) 40-Day Exp Moving Average (Blue) 50-Day Simple Moving Average (Green) 200-Day Simple Moving Average 5x ATR(20) Volatility Stop (Thin Red)

22 Bearish Divergence Source: Metastock, Reuters APPLE (AAPL-US) ( ) +800% RALLY

23 Rules for Investors  Do NOT get attached to your investments  Remember that Hope + Finger Crossing are not successful investment strategies  “This time is different.”  Dividends cannot compensate for losses  Have an exit plan BEFORE you buy

24 What Do I Do?  Run a small niche investment business based on a process that I invented  The process and techniques are unique, in that, they bring institutional quality tools to the retail investor

25 My Process  DISCIPLINED +  EMOTION FREE +  NIMBLE =  INCREASED CONFIDENCE PEACE OF MIND GREATER STABILITY BOTTOM LINE RESULTS

26 Useful Tidbits  Monthly Market Chit Chat – monthly e-publication that discusses the risks and opportunities facing investors – me to subscribe  Twitter:  – a variety of seminars, webinars and publications are published

27 Upcoming Presentations  Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA)  Oakville Chapter  Wednesday, May 8 th (7-9pm)  – for more details  “Europe & The Emerging Markets”  What Canadian Investors MUST Know  Wednesday, June 12 th, 2013 (8:30 am) The National Club, Toronto, ON  Thursday, June 20 th, 2013 (8 am) Cutten Fields, Guelph, ON

28 CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Potash Corporation in the next 3 months. CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1% or more of a class of equity securities issued by Potash Corporation. CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Suncor Energy Inc. in the next 3 months. Suncor Energy Inc. is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking, securities-related services in the past 12 months. CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services from Suncor Energy Inc. in the past 12 months. CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1% or more of a class of equity securities issued by Suncor Energy Inc.. A senior executive member or director of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC World Markets Corp., or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or advisory board member of Suncor Energy Inc. or one of its subsidiaries. Penn West Petroleum Ltd. is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed investment banking services in the past 12 months. CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from Penn West Petroleum Ltd. in the past 12 months. CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Penn West Petroleum Ltd. in the next 3 months. CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1% or more of a class of equity securities issued by Penn West Petroleum Ltd.. Barrick Gold Corporation is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed investment banking services in the past 12 months. CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for investment banking services from Barrick Gold Corporation in the past 12 months. CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from Barrick Gold Corporation in the past 12 months. CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Barrick Gold Corporation in the next 3 months. CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1% or more of a class of equity securities issued by Barrick Gold Corporation.

29 TELUS Corporation is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed investment banking services in the past 12 months. CIBC World Markets Inc. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for TELUS Corporation in the past 12 months. CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from TELUS Corporation in the past 12 months. CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from TELUS Corporation in the next 3 months. CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1% or more of a class of equity securities issued by TELUS Corporation. A senior executive member or director of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC World Markets Corp., or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or advisory board member of TELUS Corporation or one of its subsidiaries. The equity securities of TELUS Corporation are non-voting shares. CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Research In Motion Limited in the next 3 months. CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1% or more of a class of equity securities issued by Research In Motion Limited.

Thank You CIBC Wood Gundy is a division of CIBC World Markets Inc., a subsidiary of CIBC and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. If you are currently a CIBC Wood Gundy client, please contact your Investment Advisor. These calculations and projections are for demonstration purposes only. They are based on a number of assumptions and consequently actual results may differ, possibly to a material degree. This information, including any opinion, is based on various sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and is subject to change. CIBC and CIBC World Markets Inc., their affiliates, directors, officers and employees may buy, sell, or hold a position in securities of a company mentioned herein, its affiliates or subsidiaries, and may also perform financial advisory services, investment banking or other services for, or have lending or other credit relationships with the same. CIBC World Markets Inc. and its representatives will receive sales commissions and/or a spread between bid and ask prices if you purchase, sell or hold the securities referred to above. © CIBC World Markets Inc Wyndham St. N, Suite 201 | Guelph | Ontario | N1H 4E6 (519) | (855)