Gerard J. Eding Revision of the Dutch National accounts Experiences from the publication of the first results.

A revision resembles a renovation…

... with an outcome to be proud of… 3

…and eagerness to show it to the world. 4

The revision/renovation of the Dutch National Accounts – Truly a major challenge, 3 years of preparation – Conceptual and statistical (benchmark) revision, Simultaneously – Grand opening March 2014, First in Europe – But how to show it to the world….. 5

…. in an early stage to prepare our users? Two scenario’s: 1.A revision is a major statistical event and should receive a lot of media attention 2.A revision is an important event for the Statistical Bureau itself and communication should be well-balanced and directed 6

Gross domestic product (gdp) 2010 bln euro ,7 billion euro = 7,6 %, of which: 3,0 % concepts 4,6 % datasources

Government Finance Statistics 2010 % gdp – Deficit from 5.1% to 5.0% – Debt from 63.4 to 59.0 % 8

Gross national income (GNI) 2010 bln euro ,7 bln euro = 10,0 %, of which: 7,6 % gdp 2,3 % primairy income

Trade balance bln euro ,5 billion euro = 11,7 %

Towards a communication strategy… – A suitable date for the publication of the first results? – Learning from other experiences, e.g. Eurostat, US, etc. 11

Five risks/issues to be covered: 1.Simultaneous statistical and conceptual revision 2.Impact statistical revision substantial 3.Communication dynamics 4.Embargo and publication policy 5.Amount of data to be presented 12

Back to the two scenario’s 1.A revision is a major statistical event and should receive a lot of media attention 1.A revision is an important event for the Statistical Bureau itself and communication should be well- balanced and directed 13

1 st official communication, February 10 th 2014 – Main trigger: Eurostat press release – Informing national users : Reasons for a revision Conceptual, benchmark and European regulations Indication of approximate seize of benchmark revision Qualitative information on possible impact on economic growth, public deficit and GNI-contribution Planned dates of publications: results for 2010, recent years and backward time-series 14

Presentation for stakeholders, March 3th, 2014 – Session 3 days before press release: Major stakeholders; Central Bank, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Presentation with detailed results + Q&A. Presentation including ‘problematic issues’: government deficit higher in absolute terms, household savings not negative, major adjustments in international investment position. General rehearsal for official release, gain experience, ask for suggestions for improvement, addressing questions. 15

Official release of revision results, March 6 th, 2014 – Press release with main results (gdp, gni, GFS) – Technical press meeting (results and backgrounds) – Additional technical publication with elaborate text on the major changes, with standard tables and all figures decomposed into conceptual and benchmark adjustments – Pro-active contact with major user/stakeholders 16

Further preparation procedures – Special training for spokesman, – Preparing for difficult questions – Many try-outs – Technical steering group, Directors monitoring group 17

Conclusion and evaluation – Picked up as anticipated with headlines as: Dutch economy 8% larger after revision of Statistics Netherlands 45 billion euros richer, after new international definition gdp Public debt weights less on economy – Not very much attention in the printed press, only few journalists at meeting Was this thorough preparation (and all the fuss) necessary after all? 18

A quote from our Minister of Finance In the new calculations illegal activities like prostitution and drugs trafficking are included in the size of the economy. Jeroen Dijsselbloem doesn’t want to comment on this: “It is not my task. Statistics Netherlands and Eurostat set the definitions and they do that independently of politics. And that is how it should be. Otherwise politicians might want to influence the figures. And in this way we can’t even be tempted.” 19

And we made it to the cartoons… ;-) And if you do not add that number? And put the comma in this position? And put that number in the left column? We’re rich!!! We’re filthy rich!! New calculations make GDP grow with 45 billion euros 20