Types of Regimes: Authoritarian vs. Democratic ________________________________________ III I I Russia *Nigeria UK US Nazis Stalinist Soviet Union China Iran Mexico Consolidated Democracy Semi-Authoritarian Regime Hybrid Regime Illiberal Democracy Transitional Democracy Procedural Democracy Totalitarian Authoritarian -Substantive Democracy -Liberal Democracy *Nigeria: Failed State? Anarchy? Does not categorize as well

Political Parties Britain – Labour (Jeremy Corbyn); Conservative (David Cameron); Liberal Democrats (Tim Farron), Scottish National Party (SNP) Russia – United Russia (Putin); Communist Party (Zyuganov); Liberal Democrats (Zhirinovsky, nationalism); Fair Russia (Mironov) China – CCP domination Mexico – PRI (Pena Nieto, centrist, corporatist structure, patron-clientelism); PAN (Calderon,rightist, strong in north); PRD (Obrador, leftist) Iran – parties form around personality; reflects factionalism of religious conservatives and more secular reformers Nigeria – parties form around personality and divided by ethnicity, not fully developed, PDP success, APC recent win

Recent Election Results Britain – 2015 Conservatives, David Cameron, no coalition with Liberal Democrats needed like 2010, 37% vote win with fptp election method translated into a 51% seat majority in the House of Commons, exaggerated results of fptp elections Russia – 2012 United Russian Party, Putin 64%, no runoff needed, Medvedev appointed PM China – CCP, Xi Jinping Mexico – 2012, PRI President Enrique Pena Nieto, 38% vote victory (no runoffs in Mexico), stopped 2 election streak for PAN, transfer of power back to PRI Iran – 1989 Supreme Leader Khamenei by the Assembly of Religious Experts for life – 2013 President- Hassan Rouhani, moderate, 51% vote, no runoff needed Nigeria – 2015 President General Muhammadu Buhari (Muslim) of the All Progressive Congress (APC), no runoff needed – First time in Nigeria's history, the opposition defeated the ruling party (PDP) in democratic elections, similar moment to 2000 in Mexico and PAN Vicente Fox victory over PRI, example of democratization – It is the fourth time that General Buhari (72 years old) has sought the presidency. He ruled Nigeria from January 1984 until August 1985, taking charge after a military coup in December No runoff was needed.

Executive Britain – PM is head of gov, Queen is head of state Russia – PM is head of gov, president is head of state China – premier is head of gov, president is head of state Mexico – president is head of gov and state Iran – president is head of gov, Supreme Leader is head of state Nigeria – president is head of gov and state

Executive Election Method Britain – PM indirect through House of Commons, majority party, Head of State inherited Russia – PM appointed by President & Duma must accept or dissolve, president direct run-off China – premier and president appointed by Politburo Standing Committee Mexico – direct fptp, usually a minority winner, non- renewable sexenio Iran – president direct run-off (Screened by Supreme Leader), Supreme Leader is indirect, appointed by Assembly of Experts (elected) Nigeria – direct run-off, 25% minority rule in 2/3 of the states

Legislative Britain – bicameral; House of Commons with all power, House of Lords with only delay power Russia – bicameral; Duma dominates, Federation Council has only some power to delay China – unicameral; National People’s Congress (NPC) true authority with CCP; CCP standing committee Mexico – bicameral; Chamber of Deputies and Senate Iran – unicameral; Majles elected; Guardian Council; Assembly of Religious Experts; Expediency Council Nigeria – bicameral; House of Representatives and Senate

Legislative Elections Britain – FPTP; 5 year term, new, Fixed Parliament Term Act 2011 Russia – mix PR & fptp in Duma, Federation Council appointed by governor (who was appointed by President) and the state legislatures China – no national elections; government approves local candidates Mexico –Combo of FPTP and PR, parties must run women candidates, term limit just lifted Iran – FPTP, but Guardian Council vetoes a lot of candidates from the ballot Nigeria – FPTP; lots of voter fraud

Political legitimacy: What is it? Citizens believe the government has the right to rule Political legitimacy is the popular and voluntary acceptance of authority. Examples: Russian President – Popular election. – 1993 Constitution gives the president the right to rule, which people view as legitimate – Constitution limits the president’s power, which people view as legitimate. Iranian Supreme Leader – God/Allah-given right to rule. – Theocratic right to interpret Sharia law (jurist guardianship). – Constitutional authority to rule over other institutions. – Assembly of Religious Experts (if linked to religion, popular election of assembly or constitution).

Legitimacy Britain – huge due to tradition and gradualism Russia – to a degree, 1993 Constitution, 2000 transition from Yeltsin to Putin, yet Putin staying in charge raises doubts China – stable, mandate from heaven, military forces legitimacy, but citizens see it as corrupt Mexico – legitimate through PRI in the early 20th century; legitimacy from the 1910, Revolution and revolutionary leaders (Zapato, Villa, Cardenas) Iran – legitimate through theocracy; 2009 election questioned legitimacy Nigeria – no, corruption, kleptocracy prebendalism

Ethnic Cleavages Coincide or crosscut? Britain – Irish Catholic in Northern Ireland, Belfast and Muslims in major cities Russia – Chechnya (Muslims) in central Asia China – Buddhists in Tibet, Uyghurs (Muslims) in the West Mexico – Mestizo v. Amerindian Iran – Sunni v. Shiite, Persian v. Azari Nigeria – Civil War or Biafran War, 1967 – 1970, was a war fought to counter the secession of Biafra (Igbo) from Nigeria. – The three predominant groups were the Igbo, which formed between 60–70% of the population in the southeast; – the Hausa-Fulani, which formed about 65% of the peoples in the northern part of the territory; and – the Yoruba, which formed about 75% of the population in the southwestern part

Protests and Rebellions Britain – Irish Catholic (Belfast bombings, Bloody Sunday (British) & Good Friday Agreement) – Radical Islam: 7/7 Double Decker Bus Bombing, 2005 Russia – Chechnya (Muslims) Civil War , suppressed – Series of radical Islamic bombings – Beslan school siege, 385 dead China – Buddhists in Tibet: Dali Lama- Free Tibet- 140 self-immolations since 2009 – Uyghurs (Muslims) bombings – Tiananmen Square student protest, Tank Man, crushed by military – Umbrella Revolution: recent pro-democracy Hong Kong protests over the CCP screening the nomination of legislative council and chief executive candidates Mexico – Mestizo v. Amerindian: Zapatista Rebellion (Indigenous) in Chiapas, 1994 the day after NAFTA took effect Iran – White Revolution: 1960s by Shah, secularization, women’s voting rights, triggered Islamic Revolution – 1979 Islamic Revolution, – Green Revolution: triggered by questionable Mahmoud Ahmadinejad re-election in 2009, Arab Spring and democracy spread to Iran? No, First major protest since Islamic Revolution Nigeria – – Civil War or Biafran War, 1967 – 1970, 2 million deaths – MEND (Movement to Emancipate the Niger Delta) – Boko Haram (Western education is sinful)

What two factors best predict if democracy will take hold? Vibrant Civil Society Free Market Capitalism

Democratization- Political Liberalization Britain – gradualism, 1688 Glorious Revolution Russia – Gorbachev Glasnost, Soviet Union collapses 1991, National referendum and Constitution, Yeltsin elected, China – Failed attempt with Tiananmen Square Student Protest 1989, Fang Shou, limited local village elections Mexico – 2000 Fox wins from PRI Iran – 1979 Shah to a procedural democracy, very limited democratization Nigeria – 1999 military rule to civilian rule- Obasanjo elected PDP & adhered to 2 term limit, Muhammadu Buhari 2015, All People’s Congress

Economic Liberalization Britain – 1980s Thatcherism, Privatization Russia – Perestrokia 80s & shock therapy 90s China – Deng, 4 modernizations, SEZs Mexico – Structural readjustment 1980s, IMF World Bank, privatize many parastatals like banking Iran – limited Nigeria – limited

Economic Nationalization Britain – after WWII, Beveridge Report, NHS, Labour Party Manifesto Clause 4 Russia – 5 year plans, Bolshevik Revolution China – Mao 5 year plans Mexico – PEMEX, Cardenas ISI 30’s nationalizing of banks and land: ejidos, parastatals Iran – Oil nationalized, ISI, bonyads Nigeria – Parastatals, Oil, Prebendalism

Two Economic Models Socialism Government run Command economy 5 year plans (China, USSR, Iran) Nationalization – UK after WWII- NHS, BBC, Beveridge Report Para-statals – Mexico & PEMEX, Nigeria Bonyads (Iran) Import Substitution (ISI) Leads to Patron-Client Systems, Prebendalism TVEs (China- Township and Village Enterprises) High tariffs Subsidies People’s Communes in China, collectivization of Agriculture Iron Rice Bowl Old Age Pensions Lazaro Cardenas Mexico Rentier States Revenue Sharing More typical of Authoritarian Regimes Capitalism Individuals (business) own and runs the economy Free-markets, free trade Privatization – UK Margret Thatcher Economic Liberalization Structural Adjustment Programs – IMF & World Bank Russia – perestroika, shock therapy China – 4 modernizations, SEZs, Open Door trade policy, Deng Xiaoping Theory, Hong Kong, Agriculture - Household responsibility system Mexico – NAFTA- PAN & Fox, Maquiladoras Foreign direct investment Democratic regimes Necessary precondition for democracy, China? Pendulum Theory (Mexico)

Economy Britain – mixed to a small degree, mostly market; Thatcher privatization; Blair’s third way; oil plays a minor role Russia – command to market (shock therapy); weak since it depends on oil prices China – command to mixed Mexico – mixed; relies on U.S.; WTO, NAFTA; PEMEX Iran – mixed; small-level private enterprises, bonyads, oil (rentier state) Nigeria – mixed; parastatals, patron-client relations; huge oil business (rentier state)

Constitution Britain – none; govern by tradition Russia – 1993, ratified with national referendum China – 1982, mentions CCP; unitary Mexico – 1917; federal system Iran – 1979; amended in 1989 to include the Supreme Leader (non-elected) by Assembly of Experts Nigeria – 1999; similar to U.S.

Code vs. Common Law Common Law Based on precedent Judges modify the system over time with their decisions Originated in the UK UK, US, Nigeria in the South and at the federal level, Hong Kong Code Law (Civil Law) Sometimes known as Continental European law The central source of law that is recognized as authoritative is codifications in a constitution or statute passed by legislature, to amend a code. Only legislative enactments (rather than legal precedents, as in common law) are considered legally binding. China, Russia, Mexico, Iran ( sharia (Islamic law) and qanum (Majles non-scared statutes) Religious Law Sharia Law The moral code and religious law of Islam Based on Koran Secondary status for women Lots of capital Crimes Iran, North of Nigeria

Religion Britain – Anglican Church (official) Russia – legal; majority is Russian Orthodox China – atheist; persecutes dangerous religious groups (Buddhists, Falon Gong) Mexico – majority is Roman Catholic Iran – Shiite Islam; special rules for minorities Nigeria – north Muslim, south Christian

Population Issues Britain – Aging, causes strain on NHS and leads to austerity measures in social services, like education Russia – Decline, exodus after Communism, brain drain, Conception Day, Gender imbalance and differences in life expectancy China – One Child Policy ( ), aging population issues, 4:2:1 issue, princelings, Now a 2 child policy – Urban v. Rural divide Mexico – Good, balanced and urbanization Iran – very young (15year olds could vote for awhile): enough jobs to keep the country stable? – Fixed population growth issues with birth control, compare to China Nigeria – Balanced, urbanization

Soviet Union vs. Russia General Secretary: Lenin, Stalin, Gorbachev Politburo (150 people): Made policy Democratic Centralism Nomenklatura (5%): Mass Line High voting rates 99% Russian Constitution President Head of State PM Head of Gov Pres appoints PM Duma Lower House Elected by mix PR & FPTP Federation Council Upper House Appointed by Governors (who are picked by the President) & regional legislatures Duma can reject PM Glasnost

Soviet Union v. Russia Economics Command Economy, statism 5 year plans Collectivized agriculture Shock Therapy Oligarchs Insider Privatization Perestroika

What’s the difference? Authority- power- legitimacy

Normative v. Empirical

coinciding cleavages v crosscutting cleavages

Procedural v. Substantive Democracy

Presidential v. Parliamentary System

Federal Election Commission (CFE) the old and corrupt body that supervised elections in Mexico vs Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) Created before the 1997 election to provide more honest management of elections in Mexico than its predecessor, CFE vs. INEC Nigeria

Nation v. State

perestroika v. glasnost

patron-client politics v. Prebendalism

Separation of Powers v. Fusion of Powers

Iran: Sharia v. Qanun Law

velayat-e faqih = jurists guardianship means that Guardian council, Assembly of Religious Experts, and Supreme Leader have final say