Impact of non-petroleum vehicle fuel economy on GHG mitigation potential Jason M. Luk, Bradley A. Saville, Heather L. MacLean University of Toronto ONSEP Annual Workshop April 20-22, 2016

Low Carbon Fuel Standards regulate well- to-wheel GHGs

Fuel producers must sell fuels that are less carbon intensive on a per MJ basis

Well-to-wheel GHGs depend on vehicle fuel economy

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards regulate automaker fleets

Consumers are reluctant to pay higher vehicle prices for fuel efficiency technologies

CAFE includes credits for dedicated non- petroleum fuel vehicles Gasoline High-Efficiency CNG Mid-Efficiency CNG Low-Efficiency CNG

Battery electric vehicle fuel economy cannot increase at the same rate as gasoline vehicles Gasoline BEV

Battery electric vehicle fuel economy could decrease to improve driving range Gasoline Mid-Distance BEV Short-Distance BEV Long-Distance BEV

We examined incremental life cycle ownership costs and GHGs of hypothetical 2025 vehicles Higher Ownership Costs Higher well-to- wheel GHGs

Increasing BEV driving range also increases vehicle price, ownership costs and GHGs

Given uncertainties, natural gas electricity use could result in higher GHGs than gasoline use

Low efficiency CNG use can result in higher GHGs than high efficiency gasoline use

Improving CNG use efficiency increases vehicle price without reducing ownership costs

Honda Civic has optional natural gas powertrain that lowers fuel economy

Tesla Model S has optional larger battery pack that lowers fuel economy

BMW i3 has optional gasoline engine back up that lowers fuel economy

Conclusions  Incumbent technologies can improve  Emerging technologies may not reach maximum potential  Emerging technologies have environmental trade-offs  Life cycle assessments (like life cycle costing) quantifies the relationships among different technologies/activities and is thus both very informative and imprecise

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