Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 1 Abdalla Salem El-Badri OPEC Secretary General The Current Oil Market Paris, France 3rd May 2012 13.

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Presentation transcript:

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 1 Abdalla Salem El-Badri OPEC Secretary General The Current Oil Market Paris, France 3rd May th International Oil Summit

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 2 Challenging times for the oil industry Last year: Global economic turbulence Unrest in the MENA region Japan’s triple disaster This year: Continued economic uncertainty Geopolitical developments Supply disruptions in some non-OPEC regions, although Libya is returning to pre-uprising levels However, there has been, and remains, NO shortage of oil in the market

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 3 The world economy: moving to a lower growth trajectory? Real GDP growth (in %) Global economic growth patchy US showing some positive signs, but Euro-zone still struggling with sovereign debt Japan some improvement, but still suffering from last year’s triple disaster Data suggests China is slowing, but will this trend continue? Concerns that OECD problems will spill over into developing countries

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 4 High levels of open interest contracts

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 5 Some non-OPEC disruptions, but overall supply increasing Non-OPEC supply disruptions; Syria, South Sudan, Yemen, North Sea Strong increase in the first quarter of this year from other non-OPEC supply, e.g. North America Libyan crude has a made a quick return to the market Overall, world oil supply is increasing World oil supply

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 6 OECD commercial oil stocks (up to end-March 2012) Days of forward coverMillion barrels

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 7 Steady rise in OPEC crude oil production (2009 – 2012, mb/d)

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 8 Key messages in the current oil market The oil market is well supplied Supply and demand fundamentals are sound Global economic growth remains a key uncertainty, particularly in the Euro-zone Today’s price levels are being impacted by speculation Market stability needs to be our focus

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Thank you 9