The Arab Spring

Began January 2011 in Tunisia Mohamed Bouazizi Corruption rankings (Transparency International) – Tunisia 73: Morocco 80; Algeria and Egypt 112 (tied); Yemen 164; Libya 168; Age distribution – Egypt 33% younger than 14 years, Syria 35 % compare US 20%; Germany 13%) Lack of democratic input (Long standing regimes)

Outcomes Tunisia: President Ben Ali overthrown, new constitution, government elected Egypt: Mubarak ousted, Morsey elected and overthrown, al Sisi elected Libya: Gaddafi killed, Two rival governments claim power, continuing conflict Yemen: Abdullah Saleh ousted, continued civil violence Protests in Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Mauritania, UAE.

Role of religious actors One Arab Spring? – The diversity in the MENA region key differences – Monarchical dynasties (Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Morocco) – Homogeneity (Egypt) vs. diverse identities (religious, linguistic, ethnic, tribal, clan) – Natural resources (oil haves and have nots) – Role of the military – Secular nature of government (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya) and religious standing (Saudi Arabia)

Role of Social Media Facebook and Twitter Revolutions Bypass government media censorship Organize spontaneously and without detection Facebook and Twitter Revolutions Bypass government media censorship Organize spontaneously and without detection

Tunisia Unemployment, Corruption, inflation, Ben Ali 23 years in power Tunisia: Ennahda party won 37% of popuar vote, 89 of 217 seats "We do not want a theocracy.” “We are not an Islamist party, we are an Islamic party.”

Egypt: Full Circle Revolution Muslim Brotherhood 77 of 156 parliamentary seats, Other Salafists 33 of 156 seats No presidential candidate received more than 25% of vote Mosey defeats Ahmed Shafik by 3.5% The State and religion Failure of inclusion, Significant reserve powers not checked by the judiciary Morsey deposed, al Sisi elected president, MB Outlawed Return to Status Quo?

The Arab Winter

What Went Wrong? Diverse causation Democratic Deficit, shared governance Political Socialization, Patterns of authoritarianism Removal of power structures unleashes tensions: Sunni/ Shi’ite, Islamist/ Secularist, Political Class conflict

Yemen Ali Abdullah Saleh, 33 years in power Saudi intervention Houthis Shias, Southern rebels, al- Qaeda (AQAP, Ansar al Sharia)

Libya theoretically governed by a parliament House of Representatives in Tobruk elected 2014 parliament's control severely limited by the internal conflict Tripoli government

Syria Rise of Islamic State Coalition intervention Kurdish reistance Russian intervention

Belligerents Opposition Free Syrian Army Islamic Front Al Nusra Islamic State (ISIS) Kurds Peshmerga PKK Combined Joint Task Force U.S., Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Netherlands UK Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE Syrian Government Hezbollah Supported by Russia and Iran

Islamic State (ISIS) DAESH (ad-Dawlah al-Islamiyah fil Iraq wa ash-Sham) Grew out of al Qaeda in Iraq, Rebranded 2010 Abu Bakr al Baghdadi 29 June 2014 Caliphate declared 8 Million live under ISIS control Vast resources of oil, water, wheat

12.2 million People in Need of Humanitarian Assistance in Syria 5.5 million Children Affected 7.6 million Internally Displaced 3+ million Displaced to Neighboring Countries Over 200,000 deaths

Lebanon 20% of the population are refugees Rising rents pushing locals out of the market Increased unemployment and depressed wages Increased price of goods, introduction of vouchers into the economy Increased shortfall in services: water, electricity, health care Economic stagnation, lower tax revenues

International Community Middle East Cold War, Iran vs Saudi Arabia Salafi Jihadists, al-Qaeda, ISIS Passive response by powerful states