Class 12 – Emerging Powers in Comparative Perspective Dr. Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira (Postdoctoral Researcher) IRI-USP, São Paulo, 9 May 2016

“What emerges is that Russian behaviour on the international stage relating to the Syrian crisis, as well as its reference to traditional legal principles and rules of conduct in this case, to a significant degree reflect instrumental concerns about political legitimacy and state cohesion within Russia and its near neighbourhood. It is this, more than any deep solidarity with the Syrian leadership or commitment to the material benefits of relations with the current Syrian state, that has maintained Moscow’s alignment with Damascus” (Allison 2013, 796).

Russia’s “mistake” on Libya: “On 17 March 2011 the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1973, authorizing a no- fly zone over Libya. This offered an unprecedented mandate under Chapter VII of the UN Charter for the use of military force for humanitarian purposes against the wishes of a functioning state. Russia and four other sceptical Security Council members abstained in the crucial vote” (Allison 2013, 796).  Yet, Putin changed his mind and avoided the same fate when dealing with the West about Syria…

 Four resolutions vetoed by China and Russia between 2011 and 2014;  Ceasefire since 26 February, after US and Russia agreed to a UNSC resolution;  14 March 2016: Russia announces withdraw of most military from Syria.  Reasons are not clear yet….

 Combined Joint Task Force: Western/NATO/Saudi support to rebel groups that are (in theory) moderate, targeting both Assad and ISIS;  But Turkey seems to offer aid to segments that are against Kurds—and the US have been supporting them.

 Quick Task: Considering your background on the Cold War, discuss in pairs what the conflict in Syria suggests about the application of the following concepts to the current world order:  Hegemony;  Influence;  Multilateralism;  Sponsorship.