WC - Excess Pricing A National Accounts (Primary) Perspective Steve Basson The Travelers

Distinctions l Small accounts  Guaranteed Cost  Pricing tied to Manual Rates (Loss Costs)  Basic & Excess Premium is Packaged together l Large accounts  Typically 1MM of Standard Premium and Up  Retro Rated, Large Deductible or SIR  Risk Transfer is Excess of Ded / SIR  Significant Tailoring (negotiating) of Excess Price l examples WC - Excess Pricing

Overall Approach l Determine Loss Frequency Layer l Layer Price Excess Layers to Clients Retention l Layer Price Excess Layers beyond Retention  Frequency layer is the base for excess layers l Maintain pricing Integrity WC - Excess Pricing

Overall Approach l Layer Price (ex. 250K Retention) Who ownsCost 1st 100KClient________ 100K - 250KClient________ 250K - 500KExcess (insured) ________ 500K - 1MMExcess (insured) ________ 1MM - 2MMExcess (insured) ________ 2MM - StatExcess (insured) ________ WC - Excess Pricing

Overall Approach l Advantages of Layer Pricing  Assigns Costs (properly) to layers  Allows a “funding” mentality  Promotes better reinsurance buying decisions l both facultative & treaty  Allows client to make better decisions regarding retention  Evaluation - Loss / profitability studies can be done WC - Excess Pricing

Loss Frequency Layer l What is the Frequency Layer?  10% Rule  Existence of a few losses in a layer l Loss Rate or use Frequency / Severity Approach  Trend & Develop Losses & Counts  Benefit Level Adjustments  Compute onleveled Losses  Rating done at a Frequency Layer l Relate Loss Costs to Exposure l Compute Next Years Loss Projection WC - Excess Pricing

Loss Frequency Layer (100K) Example using Loss rates YrProj. Ult Loss OL Payroll Loss Rate ,553, M ,344, M ,598, M ,074, M 1.282Proj ,075, M Payroll for 2000 = 650M (est) Loss Projection at 100K = 8.06M WC - Excess Pricing

Loss Frequency Layer l Loss Rate - Frequency / Severity Approach  Approach can be Paid or Incurred  Use Internal LDFs  Account Specific LDFs for Larger clients  Should Loss Rate at several Limits!!!  Could have done same process with Frequency & Severity  Uniqueness of Large Account LDFs l Clients often involved in reserve setting l Clients usually involved in settlement l Better Risk Mgmnt (Light Duty, etc.) WC - Excess Pricing

Increased Limits Factors l Internal ILF reviews  State Specific (for larger states)  Blended w/ NCCI information at higher layers (>= 1MM)  Split to Hazard Groups (I - IV)  ILFs can be “layer” or “to unlimited / stat”  Layer : Layer ILFs determined by division l 50K ILF2.00 l 100K ILF 1.5 l K ILF WC - Excess Pricing

Determine Loss Retention l Loss Rating Done at Frequency Layer(s) l Advantage of Loss Rating at several limits l Need to Extend to Retention (if not there already) l Some Severity Characteristics may emerge  Loss ILF-Stat Loss Rating ILF to 100K ILF to 250K 50K ,100,000 8,438,000 9,953, K ,000,000 9,436, K ,020,000 What is the message? WC - Excess Pricing

Determine Loss Retention Loss LossILF Extension to 250K 50K7,100,000 9,953, K8,000,000 9,436, K9,020,000 Need to Determine estimate AT the 250K Retention Many judgement Calls (different signals) Client can use to “Accrue” / Budget Excess Losses are based on this number NOT discounted for Time Value WC - Excess Pricing

Layer Pricing XS Layers l Using ILFs - Layer Price Excess Layers l Same set of ILFs (State / Hazard Group)  Internal ILFs  Discounted for Time Value of Money (can be state specific)  Room for judgement based on Severity characteristics in frequency layer(s)  Credits & Debits are monitored l Sold versus Guide WC - Excess Pricing

Layer Pricing XS Layers ILF Undisc.Discounted Cost Cost (%) 1st 250K9,000, , ,000(75) MM , ,000(50) 1MM , ,200(40) WC - Excess Pricing

Layer Pricing XS Layers l ILF Issues  How can I charge $X for a layer, when there aren’t any losses?  Adjustments should be minimal in higher layers l Limit judgement, where there isn’t credibility / predictability  How can I adjust the XS price to reflect the (low) severity?  Cost Structure needs to be explained in English WC - Excess Pricing

Layer Pricing XS Layers Claims Excess of 250K (500 LT claims in total) How can we charge X$ Excess of 500K, with no claims? “Expect 1 (maybe 2) claim(s) per year excess of 250K”? WC - Excess Pricing

Layer Pricing XS Layers freq. Per 100 claims 0$ K MM 1MM +Total WC - Excess Pricing

Layer Pricing XS Layers 500 Claims Ult MM MM Actual (tot 500 Claims) Ult ? MM ? 1MM ? WC - Excess Pricing

Layer Pricing XS Layers Layer Avg Expect #Cost , , MM 150, ,000 1MM + 600, ,000 WC - Excess Pricing

Layer Pricing XS Layers COMPARISON (Undiscounted) Using ILFs Using Freq ,000547, MM 364,000320,000 1MM + 298, ,000 Note: This approach can also be used on Frequency Layers WC - Excess Pricing

Layer Pricing XS Layers Discounting for Time Value of Money l Generally Use Paid LDFs  State Specific where possible  Very sensitive to Settlement practices  Little to no tailoring account x account l For 250 x 250 Layer  Subtract 250K curve from 500K curve (ILF Adj)  Discount to time zero WC - Excess Pricing

Layer Pricing XS Layers WC - Excess Pricing

Misc. WC Excess Issues l Multi-Claimant Events l Aggregate in XS Layers l Medical Inflation l NCCI ELPFs / ILFs l Risk Loads WC - Excess Pricing

Wrap Up l Workers Comp Excess Pricing - Large Accounts  Layer Priced of Frequency Layers l Some tailoring for severity  Extension / Layer Pricing of Insured Layers l Cross Check with Frequency Approach  Discount for Time Value of Money l Make decisions  Pricing, Retentions  Reinsurance WC - Excess Pricing