Making Wind More Bankable SETA 2016, Bangkok, Thailand 23 rd March, 2016 natural energy insight Bihag Mehta – Director (India)

Contents Company Overview Why Maximising Project Bankability Measurement Uncertainties – Different Measurement Campaigns Annual Variability Uncertainties Wind Flow Model Uncertainties Overall Uncertainties Cost-Benefit Analysis natural energy insight

OST Energy OST is a leading and bankable technical advisor in the renewable energy sector and a multi-award winning company. We have recently been named the ACQ ‘UK Technical Advisor of the Year 2014’, the 2014 Finance Monthly ‘UK Renewable Advisory Firm of the Year’ and the CorporateLiveWire Global Awards 2014 ‘Renewables Energy Advisory Firm of the Year UK’. OST have undertaken : 30GW of renewable energy projects Over 800 renewable energy projects natural energy insight

Established in 2008 in Brighton (UK), with subsidiaries in Ann Arbor (USA), London (UK), Milano (Italy), Cape Town (RSA), São Paulo (BRA) and Sydney (AUS) & New Delhi (IND). We have undertaken assignments in Europe and across other continents and have the flexibility required for a truly global reach. Our extended network of consultants allows us to have a deep understanding of local context and regulatory framework. Global Presence natural energy insight

Selected Clients natural energy insight

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Why Maximizing Project Bankability? Reduced credit availability Increased hub height Larger projects and investments Reported cases of under- performance of operational wind farms

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Major Project Uncertainties Measurement Uncertainties Annual Variability Uncertainties Wind Flow Modelling Uncertainties

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Measurement Uncertainties Mast Siting High representatively Minimising Horizontal Deviation Minimising Inflow Angle Minimising Turbulence Maximising Speed-ups

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Measurement Uncertainties Mast Anatomy & Design IEC Class 1 – measurement sensors

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Measurement Uncertainties Mast Anatomy & Design Wind flow distortion Met Mast tower shadow

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Measurement Uncertainties LiDAR Measurements

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Measurement Uncertainties Why : LiDAR Measurements Lower Rotor disc Hub Height Upper Rotor disc?

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Measurement Uncertainties What wrong Vertical Profiling can do

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Measurement Uncertainties What wrong Vertical Profiling can do

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Measurement Uncertainties LiDAR moved across the wind farm on a pick-up truck

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Measurement Uncertainties

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Annual Variability Uncertainties years of hourly mesoscale data years of hourly mesoscale data

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Wind Flow Modelling Uncertainties Slope limitation to 16.7%Complex terrains: The wind flow assumptions lead to unrealistic results Forested area: Forest canopy modelling not reliable. Leads to unacceptable uncertainties Not recommended in complex sites (hilly/mountainous or forested areas) Linear wind flow modelling

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Wind Flow Modelling Uncertainties Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) ： Accurate modelling in the most complex sites No slopes limitation Advanced turbulence modelling Thermal stability & roughness tuning for profile calibration Multiple masts synthesis Lower horizontal and vertical cross-prediction errors

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Overall Uncertainties Earning confidence: bring P90 as close as possible to P50 Uncertainties comparison (moderately complex site) Type of UncertaintyCurrent Industry StandardLiDAR + Met Mast Assessment Uncertainty Measurement5%2% Annual Variability6%1.1% Modelling10%2% Total (Square root sum)12.7%3.0%

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Why are we focusing on Uncertainties reduction Lower uncertainties means higher P75 and higher P90 P75 and P90 are used by banks to assess project financial viability Higher is the P90, higher will be the debt equity ratio (Financial leverage) Higher financial leverage means bigger projects and higher ROI

Making Wind Farms more Bankable natural energy insight Cost-Benefit Analysis

OST UK HQ Floor 9, Tower Point 44 North Road Brighton, BN1 1YR Tel: +44 (0) OST UK 5 th Floor, 81 Piccadilly South, Mayfair, London W1J 8HY Tel: +44 (0) OST India 7 th Floor, Infinity Tower-B, DLF Cyber City, Gurgaon Tel: +91 (0) OST Africa Tri-Angle House 3 rd Floor 22 Riebeek Street Cape Town South Africa Tel: OST Asia Pacific Suite 126, 117 Old Pittwater Rd, Brookvale, NSW 2100 Australia Tel: OST LATAM Av. Afonso Pena, 118, Macuco Santos – São Paulo CEP Brasil Tel: OST North America, Canada & Mexico P.O. Box 5345 Plymouth, Michigan 48170, USA Tel: OST Italia Via Ugo Bassi, Milano Tel: Global Offices natural energy insight