April Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region Agenda April 21, 2016 Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO Venue: ICPAC (Kenya Meteorological Department) Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, opposite the Junction 09:30 Situation Analysis & Outlook: Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition & refugees ACF, FAO, FEWSNET, ICPAC, IPC, UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP 10:30 Tea/Coffee breakAll 11:00 Discussion All

April Current Conditions

April Key Messages There are 25 million people facing crisis and emergency food insecurity levels in the region (the food insecure population in IPC phases 3 and 4). This is higher than the pre-harvest food insecure population in December 2015 (13 million people). The key drivers of food insecurity is conflict and insecurity, the impact of El Nino-induced drought and floods that continues to negatively affect crop and animal production and economic shocks (high food prices and inflation). Key areas of concern remain the drought stricken areas of Ethiopia, Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti, which are also forecasted to receive near normal to below-normal rains during the March-May period as this may slow recovery. This number is expected to increase in the absence of sufficient funding and adequate response. Hence updating of El Nino contingency plans and appropriate preparedness actions by governments and humanitarian partners should be stepped up. Donors are called upon to support this critical early humanitarian action. Governments and development partners should step up risk reduction and livelihood support/diversification strategies to mitigate risks in vulnerable communities, especially those whose livelihoods have been devastated.

April Ethiopia More than 10.2 million people are in need of emergency food assistance Most households are relying on humanitarian assistance as the main source of food in the affected areas. Price of maize in key markets is above 5-yr average but stable. Stability is partly due to humanitarian assistance and partly due to food movement from surplus areas. Areas of concern: Southern Afar and Sitti Zone of Somali, Waghimra zone in Amhara Region and lowlands in eastern Oromia Regions in Emergency (IPC Phase 4)& others under Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Some dependent on safety nets could also be affected from July 2016 when the transfers end. Food insecurity continues to deteriorate in most drought affected areas despite ongoing humanitarian assistance. - due to an early start of the lean period, poor Belg, declining incomes from livestock, alarming water shortages (El Nino impact), and above-average food prices. Projected food insecurity classification Feb – May 2016 Food security situation is not expected to improve meaningfully until the next Meher harvest in October 2016 due to poor Belg harvest prospects and livestock recovery takes time.

April Sudan More than 4 million people in Sudan face Stressed IPC Phase 2 and Crisis IPC Phase 3 as of February Below average 2015/16 harvests, higher than usual staple food prices, and poor pasture conditions are likely to result in a higher than usual number of food insecure people in Sudan during the March/April to September lean season. Most newly displaced households are located in North Darfur and have lost access to household stocks, productive assets, and normal income earning opportunities; and are receiving some assistance, and are therefore in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). IDPs (20-25%) and poor households in SPLMN areas and new IDPs in the Darfur states who do not receive humanitarian food assistance are likely to be in Emergency (IPC 4). In contested areas of South Kordofan, conflict is expected to increase during the summer months and to further disrupt livelihoods and markets, and to trigger additional displacement. Current food security status, March - May 2016 Areas of concern: North, South Kordofan, Kassala, Red Sea, White Nile, and the Darfur States.

April Burundi 3.6 million people are food insecure (689,571 severely) – according to the Feb 2016 FSMS & EFSA. Season A production was 10 percent below average nationally due to conflict related disruptions to agricultural activities. Population movement and market access remain constrained in many areas. Many poor and conflict affected households throughout Burundi remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Some poor households in these areas are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least the end of the lean season in May. In conflict affected areas, below average production is of particular concern. Many households in affected areas have below average stocks after poor Season A production Conflict continues to disrupt Season B (Mar-Jun) agricultural activities, limiting income earning opportunities. Staple food prices in the affected areas remain above both last year and the five-year average. Areas of concern: food insecurity likely to deteriorate in conflict affected areas of Bujumbura, Bujumbura rural, Kirundo, Makamba, Rumonge, Cibitoke, Bubanza, and Ruyigi, Bururi, Muyinga,, and Mwaro.

April South Sudan An estimated 2.8 million people (IPC Phases 3, 4 and 5) or 23% of the population will face acute food and nutrition insecurity between January and March 2016 due to economic crisis, insecurity and disrupted markets. Overall, food insecurity likely to worsen during May- July lean period reaching unprecedented food insecurity levels. The overall cereal deficit in January-December 2016 marketing year is estimated at about 380,000 tonnes, (54 percent) more than the deficit estimated for 2015 (CFSAM) In Western Equatoria, while farmers are returning to their farms due to relative calm but lack basic inputs to fully resume agricultural activities. Disrupted trade, localized insecurity and reduced crop harvests and economic meltdown are creating additional food insecurity concerns in Northern Bahr El Ghazal (NBeG), Warrap and Eastern Equatoria states. Fighting and displacement has similarly affected farmers in Wau County. Projected food security outcomes Jan-Mar 2016 Source: IPC Dec 2016 Areas of Concern: Greater Upper Nile states of Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile; where Unity State remains most affected due to continued fighting and displacement.

April Somalia (FEWSNET and FSNAU) 953,000 people under crisis & emergency between Feb-June 2016 (68% are IDPs) due to poor rainfall and drought conditions, trade disruption, protracted and new population displacement, compounded by poverty; 3.7 million people in Somalia are acutely food insecure and will be in need of food security assistance and livelihood support now until June (Source: FSNAU Feb 2016). Areas of concern: Banadir, Bari, Awdal, Sanaag regions. Food security outcomes are expected to worsen at least until the start of Gu rains in April in the latter and deserve close monitoring. Other priority groups include poor and vulnerable urban populations in the South that have been affected by trade disruption Malnutrition: Protracted nutrition crisis among several population groups. Critical GAM rates (>15%) reported for last two years; especially among Bari Urban; Garowe, Galkayo and Dollow IDPs; Mataban and Beletweyne Districts; Bay, North Gedo and North Gedo Riverine. Projected food security outcomes, Feb - June 2016 Source: FSNAU Feb 2016.

April Kenya 640,000 people required food assistance, reduced by 41% compared to Aug 2015 (FEWS NET and KFSSG Feb 16). The long rains are forecast to be near average, partially influenced by the ongoing El Niño and harvest is still likely to be on time. Household food security is expected to improve slightly in most pastoral areas, starting in April, as the long rains restore pasture, water resources, milk availability and animal sales as livestock migrate back. Despite slight improvements in food security conditions, the majority of pastoral households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Household food security in marginal agricultural areas is likely to remain stable, agricultural wage labor (land preparation and dry planting) is available at typical levels. Most households will remain in None (IPC Phase 1) through at least June 2016 when the green harvest will be available. Projected food security outcomes, Feb-Sept 2016 Source: FEWSNET

April Djibouti About 227,463 people are facing Crisis IPC Phase 3 and emergency IPC Phase 4 food insecurity levels. (Source: IPC Oct 2015 estimates). This is due to below average performance caused by constrained production and reduced purchasing power among many pastoral households leading to adoption of alternative livelihoods (e.g. sales of charcoal and wood, wage labour). Livestock are still in poor body condition due to water and pasture shortage while in some situations deaths and diseases have eroded livelihood base of some households. Acute food insecurity is likely to continue among poor households in these regions, at least through September However, March-May Diraac/Sorghum (though expected to be below- average) could improve pasture conditions and access to water for humans and livestock to some extent. Areas of concern: Southeastern Pastoral, northwestern Dikhil, and Obock regions.

April Uganda 392,909 people (39% of the total pop) are facing ‘Crisis’ food insecurity IPC level 3 in Karamoja due to poor crop performance (caused by flooding and dry spells) in 2015 and are depending on the market and WFP humanitarian assistance. Areas of concern: Moroto, Kotido, Kaabong and Napak districts. Other affected regions are Teso and Acholi facing stressed IPC 2 food security level. (Source: IPC Nov 2015-Apr 2016 report). The rest of the country is minimally food insecure (IPC level 1). Land preparation and planting started in March. Rains continuing in April throughout the country. Early harvesting (beans) expected end May 2016 except in Karamoja. Projected food insecurity Nov Apr 2016 Source: FEWSNET.

April Rwanda With adequate household stocks (due to above average Season A harvest and mild April-May lean period) and typical income earning opportunities, most poor households are expected to remain in None (IPC Phase 1) until Season B harvesting begins in May However, Season A harvests were below average for the third consecutive season in the Eastern Semi Arid Agropastoral livelihood zone and poor households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the April to May lean season, depending more on markets. Labor opportunities will seasonally decline in April, reducing purchasing capacity. Areas of concern: Kayonza, Kirehe, and Nyagatare Districts.

April CAR 2.3 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance (IPC Phases 3 & 4) following unprecedented scale and intensity of food insecurity caused by massive population displacement, severe humanitarian and economic hardships, depletion of household assets and reserves due to the ongoing crisis. Overall crop and animal production is drastically below pre-crisis levels; overall crop production has reduced by 54%, cereal production reduced by 70% and cattle/shoats reduced by 46-57% (WFP/FAO CFSAM March 2016). Areas of concern: the prefectures of Nana-Mambéré, Haut- Mbomou, Mambéré-Kadéï, Ouham, Vakaga and Nana- Gribizi in the north, southeast and northwest regions.

April DRC 4.5 million people were projected under IPC crisis (IPC 3) and emergency (IPC 4) phases over Sept 2015 – March 2016 and requiring humanitarian support. Poor road conditions, coupled with a deteriorating security situation negatively affects the ability to deliver food assistance in eastern region. The 2015/2016 season B performed favorably due to good rains and improved food availability. However, El Nino related floods resulted in localized crop losses and destruction of livelihoods. The 2015/2016 season B harvests led to a seasonal price decline in some markets BUT the introduction of a new tax on boats and agricultural products in North Kivu province has led to an abnormal rise in food prices in South Kivu markets.

April CountryPop in IPC phase 3 & 4Source Burundi3.6MApril 2016 WFP CAR2.3M (require assistance)IPC April 2016 Djibouti0.27MIPC Oct 2015 Ethiopia10.2M (require food aid)HRD, Dec 2015 Kenya0.64M (require support)KFSSG, Feb 2016 Somalia0.95MFSNAU, Feb-June 2016 South Sudan2.84MIPC, Dec 2015 Uganda0.39M (to be updated in May 2016)IPC April 2016 Sudan4MIPC Sept – Nov 2015 TOTAL Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4)