International – Independent - Innovative Gas Overview AUGUST

International – Independent - Innovative European gas demand and supply Europe demand: 470 Bcm Europe production: 150 Bcm Pipeline imports brut All EU countries 320 Bcm LNG imports 90 Bcm Qatar: 43 Bcm Nigeria: 14 Bcm Algeria: 13 Bcm Egypt: 4 Bcm Trinidad: 4 Bcm Others… Intra EU trades - 90 Bcm Pipeline imports net 230 bcm Russia: 120 Bcm Norway: 93 Bcm Algeria: 33 Bcm Total net imports: 320 Bcm Sources: Bergen Energi, round numbers from BP/Eurogas/Cedigas figures (2011) ½ demand ¾ imports 1/6 demand ¼ imports 1/3 demand 2

International – Independent - Innovative Global Pricing Division 3

International – Independent - Innovative Gas – Complex Pricing Signals 4

International – Independent - Innovative 5 Asian LNG vs. European Spot Prices

International – Independent - Innovative Oil Price Relationship Holds on Forward Contracts? 6

International – Independent - Innovative Power Generation 7

International – Independent - Innovative The future for European Gas 8 Source: ENTSO-E

International – Independent - Innovative US Shale Applications 9

International – Independent - Innovative North American LNG export projected capacities 10

International – Independent - Innovative Global shale gas revolution? 11

International – Independent - Innovative New LNG Capacity 12

International – Independent - Innovative US Shale Price ? 13

International – Independent - Innovative Euro prices stable, but new gas competiton 14

International – Independent - Innovative Fuel prices 15

International – Independent - Innovative Will Asian markets turn towards cheaper coal as Europe has done The return of Japanese nuclear could feed through to lower power prices without much warning – but when will it happen? US Shale gas is not expected to be available in Europe and may not began to have any price impact until 2018 Gas price may move away from oil - index contracts but what would be the basis for real price – could lead to greater market uncertainty and a higher prices ? Concluding Thoughts 16

International – Independent - Innovative Oil Price Drivers 17

International – Independent - Innovative 18 “JCC” is the acronym of Japanese Crude Cocktail or more formally Japan Customs-cleared Crude. This Japanese Crude Cocktail results from a basket of the most traded crude oils to be used as the reference price for long-term supply LNG Contracts. Japan created the JCC Contracts after the first oil shock, in the early 1970s, to secure its first LNG contract sourced primarily from Indonesia at that time. The Petroleum Association of Japan is calculating this Japan Customs- cleared Crude index formerly from the average of the top twenty crude oils by volume. Japanese Crude Coctail