Downturn: Very slow recovery: 2010—2013 Jan jobs expected 200,000; got 74,000 – Unemployment falls mostly because folks leaving labor market Takes 17 weeks to find job or give up Longtime unemployed and part-time at historic highs

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 3

4 Chris Wilson, When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear? Slate, Dec. 30, 2009,

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 5 Chris Wilson, When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear? Slate, Dec. 30, 2009,

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 6 Chris Wilson, When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear? Slate, Dec. 30, 2009,

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 7 Chris Wilson, When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear? Slate, Dec. 30, 2009,

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 8 Chris Wilson, When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear? Slate, Dec. 30, 2009,

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 9 Chris Wilson, When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear? Slate, Dec. 30, 2009,

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 10 Chris Wilson, When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear? Slate, Dec. 30, 2009,

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 11

Employment Loss & Recovery 11 Recessions Since WWII

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 13

Everybody Thought This Month Would Be Great!—200,000 new jobs! “The forecasts for the employment report have been moving up all week, although there is some concern about adverse weather in December, especially during the BLS reference week. We will know soon...” – Early Friday morning Jan. 10, 2014

Worst Jobs Report Since the Labor Market Stopped Shrinking in Early 2010 “As the year drew to a close, job creation weakened to its slowest pace in three years, far below economists’ expectations, even as the unemployment rate dropped to 6.7 percent.” – NY Times Friday January 10, ,000 instead of 200,000 new jobs

Change in Jobs Per Month Since Jan. 2008

Unemployment Rate Since 1960: High Now but Getting Towards 6% Blue shaded areas are recessions—that is when the economy was shrinking. Roughly full employment range

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 18

Labor Force participation Rate (Blue) and Employment/Population Ratio Since 1960 Prime Age to be Working: Ages 25 to 54 Only

The percentage of the population with a job or looking for work has fallen from a record high in early 2000 to the lowest level in 35 years

Peter Philips Professor and Chair, Economics Department, University of Utah 21

It takes about 4 months to either find a job or give up entirely

The odds of getting a job decline as time goes on

Long-term Unemployed (over 26 weeks) Since 1969 Blue shaded areas are recessions—that is when the economy was shrinking.

Who are the long-term unemployed?

Part-time Employed for Economic Reasons Since 1969

Summary Compared to 2008, 1% fewer jobs now—at bottom 6% fewer, but 20 million more Americans now. Dec. job growth second lowest since labor market stopped shrinking Unemployment rate lowest since labor market started to recover in 2010 Long-term unemployed & part-time employed falling but still higher than any time since the 60’s Prime age labor market participation rate still falling

Conclusion Labor market growing but slowly Back to 2007 levels in early 2015 – But working age population higher than 2007 – And labor force participation still falling – Means some do not see their future in the labor market